Do you feel the weather changing? The sun staying out longer? Hear the birds starting to chirp? That can only mean one thing — baseball season is right around the corner.
Betting on baseball isn’t nearly as popular as sports like the NFL, NBA and college football. The season is way longer, so logging in and placing bets every day can feel like a slog. The standard wagers are also moneylines, so if you want to bet on the best teams in the league, you’ll have to pay a premium.
That said, there are other ways to enjoy America’s pastime from a betting perspective. You can take a crack at home run wagers or pitcher strikeout props, or you can dive into the world of NRFIs.
So, what exactly is a NRFI? Let’s dive into everything you need to know.
What is a NRFI?
NRFI — pronounced as “nerfy” — stands for No Run (in the) First Inning. Essentially, you are betting on both teams to be held off of the scoreboard in the top and bottom of the first.
Sounds simple enough, right? Well, it’s not as easy as it sounds. The first inning is routinely the highest-scoring inning in baseball. It’s the only time in the entire game where both lineups are guaranteed to send their top three hitters to the plate. After that, it’s a crapshoot as to which batter will lead off a given inning.
That was particularly true in 2023. Twelve different teams scored a run in the first inning in at least 30% of their games. That was up from nine squads in 2022 and more closely resembled the juiced ball era.
In addition to having your best hitters at the plate, there is also the old adage that it takes pitchers an inning or two to get into a rhythm. You’ll often hear that if you “don’t get to a pitcher early,” you’ll have no chance of getting to him late.
Part of that is conjecture, but there is some truth to it when you look at some of the best pitchers in baseball. Justin Verlander has a career ERA of 3.87 in first innings, his highest mark until you get to the eighth. Clayton Kershaw’s first inning ERA is his third-highest for any specific inning, while Gerrit Cole has a career ERA of 4.17 in the opening frame. Those are three of the best pitchers of the past decade, and all three have a tendency to start slower than they finish.
Add it all up, and it’s not a huge shocker that the first inning tends to see the most scoring in MLB games.
How do NRFIs work?
Now that we know exactly what a NRFI is, we can dive into what really matters — whether or not they’re good bets. As with just about everything in sports betting, the answer is complicated.
Remember, to win a NRFI bet, you need both teams to go scoreless in the first inning. That is a lot easier said than done.
In 2023, only 12 teams had winning records on NRFI bets. That means that for the other 18 squads, they saw at least one run scored in the first inning in more than 50% of their games.
For most of the NRFI “winners,” the margins were extremely thin. Six of the 12 teams with a positive NRFI record covered at 51 or 52%, so depending on the price, they could’ve been losers as well. If you’re covering the NRFI at 52%, the average bet would need to check in at -108 or lower for the bets to be profitable.
Jul 30, 2023; Miami, Florida, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Jesus Luzardo (44) pitches against the Detroit Tigers during the first inning at loanDepot Park. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
When it came to NRFIs, one team stood out above the rest in 2023: the Miami Marlins. They checked both boxes that you’re looking for with a NRFI squad: excellent pitching and a below-average offense. They and their opponents combined for 100 scoreless first innings last year, making them the only team above 60%.
When it comes to NRFI odds, they can vary pretty significantly from game-to-game. If one game features a stud starting pitcher matchup — and the total checks in at 7.0 runs or less — expect the NRFI to be priced aggressively. Something like -150 to -175 is definitely within the realm of possibility. If another game is expected to feature lots of scoring, the NRFI will likely be priced at better than even money.
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How to place NRFI bets
The good thing about NRFI bets being so popular is that they are offered at every sportsbook across the industry. That includes DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, Bet365, BetRivers, and many others.
That said, these bets are not always listed in the same way. Some locations may have the bets listed like this:
Total Runs 1st Inning – Over 0.5/Under 0.5
Other sportsbooks will list it like this:
Run in the 1st inning? – Yes/No
Regardless of how the question is framed, they are essentially asking the same thing: Will there be a run scored in the first inning?
As with all bets, be sure to shop around to find the best price on NRFIs. Having access to as many sportsbooks as possible and ensuring you’re getting the best number on each bet is the easiest way to become a better sports bettor. If DraftKings Sportsbook is offering -115 on a NRFI while the rest of the industry is at -120, placing the bet anywhere but DraftKings is a mistake. Five cents of juice may not seem like much, but if you’re placing multiple bets per day, it adds up over the course of a full year.
Like most bets, you can parlay NRFIs with other wagers if you’re looking to increase the potential payout. Of course, that added upside comes with added risk: You’ll need to win each part of the parlay in order for the bet to win.
NRFI betting strategy
There are a bunch of different factors to consider when looking at NRFIs. That said, the biggest is who is going to be on the mound for each team to start the game.
The starting pitcher variance is one of the aspects that makes baseball betting so unique. While NFL and NBA rosters don’t feature much turnover, MLB rosters can look completely different depending on who is on the mound. Some days, you might have a Cy Young-caliber starter, while other days you might hand the ball to someone just trying to hang on to their spot in the majors.
Finding the right pitching matchup to target is a great starting point for NRFIs. The better the starting pitchers — and the lower the game total — the less likely it is to see a run in the first inning.
Aug 2, 2023; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees starting pitcher Gerrit Cole (45) reacts during the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
That said, the oddsmakers are obviously well aware of who is going to be starting on the mound, and they’re going to set the lines that way. You’re not going to see the same odds for an MLB NRFI involving Cole as you would one involving Patrick Corbin.
The real value comes in identifying pitchers who excel at keeping runs off the scoreboard in the first inning. Diving into first-inning statistics can be extremely helpful in that regard. If a pitcher with a career 5.00 ERA has a 3.50 ERA during the first inning, he could be undervalued in the NRFI market. The same is true for pitchers who excel against batters the first time through the order but struggle afterward. We only care about the very first inning, so what happens afterward is irrelevant to our handicapping process.
After that, we can focus on the offenses. There are plenty of resources that track how often each team scores in the first inning. In 2023, the Braves led the league by scoring in the first inning in 39.16% of their games, while the Blue Jays were the least-frequent first-inning scorers at 21.95%. Finding teams with good offensive numbers who start games slow is another strong strategy in the NRFI market.
Finally, don’t overlook things like the weather and ballpark. The hotter the weather, the better the environment for hitters. The ball travels better as the calendar heats up, which is part of the reason why the summer months are routinely higher scoring than April and May. Certain stadiums are also much friendlier for pitching than others. This information is accounted for in the over/under for the game, but it’s still something to keep in mind when looking at NRFIs.
NRFI vs. YRFI
While No Run First Inning bets have become the go-to option for MLB bettors, you can also bet on the inverse. A YRFI bet — or Yes Run First Inning — means that you are wagering on at least one of the two squads to get on the scoreboard in the first frame.
This market is directly correlated with the NRFI. If the NRFI in a particular game is -125, you can expect the YRFI to check in at around even money. The more juice you have to pay on one side of the prop bet, the bigger the longshot the other side becomes.
