High-Value Facts & Stacks. Best Week 2 NFL DFS Stacks.
Welcome to High Value Facts and Stacks!
In this piece, I’ll outline three high-value stacks for DFS and provide some important stats that separate them from the rest of the pack.
Typically, the goal here will be to discuss one popular option, one less popular option, and one value option. This way, you can find the right stack to focus on for a wide array of situations!
All images and model data for both DraftKings and FanDuel are sourced from Paydirtdfs.com, with utilization and team-based data from the Utilization Tools here at Fantasy Life.
Popular option: Jacksonville Jaguars
Facts:
- Calvin Ridley finished the 2020 season with nearly 1,400 yards on 90 receptions — good for an average of 15.27 yards per reception — and nine touchdowns, putting him on par with Justin Jefferson for yearly totals.
- In Week 1, the Jaguars played at a neutral pace and skewed heavily towards the run, but that didn’t stop Trevor Lawrence from pushing a 75% completion percentage and top-10 finish at the position.
- Travis Etienne Jr. had terrific utilization in the season opener, with 80% snap participation, 83% route participation, and 21 fantasy points, good for the fourth-best utilization score at running back.
Stack info (DraftKings)
Salary and projections:
- Combo 1 (Lawrence/Ridley/Jones): The Median score is 43.72 for $18,600 in salary.
- Combo 2 (Lawrence/Ridley/Engram): The Median score is 40.88 for $18,700 in salary.
- Combo 3 (Lawrence/Jones/Engram): The Median score is 37.91 for $16,200 in salary.
When you look at the Median score per unit of salary, the first combo provides approximately 43.72 / $18,600 = 2.35 points per unit of salary.
Similarly, the second combo offers 2.19 points per unit of salary, and the third combo provides 2.34.
The first and third combos are marginally more "efficient" from a cost-to-median-score perspective, although the differences are minimal.
Finish percentiles
- Combo 1 (Lawrence/Ridley/Jones): 4% Top Finish and 19% Top-5 Finish.
- Combo 2 (Lawrence/Ridley/Engram): 1% Top Finish and 11% Top-5 Finish.
- Combo 3 (Lawrence/Jones/Engram): 1% Top Finish and 5% Top-5 Finish.
High salary, high reward
The first combo is the most expensive but also offers the highest upside. It has a significantly higher likelihood of not only achieving a Top Finish (4%) but also a Top-5 Finish (19%).
Sep 10, 2023; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Calvin Ridley (0) celebrates his touchdown with teammates in the first quarter against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
Moderate salary, moderate reward
The second combo has a moderate salary, but its upside is lower than the first combo. While it has only a 1% chance for a Top Finish, its Top-5 Finish chance is also relatively moderate at 11%.
Low salary, lowest reward
The third combo is the least expensive but also shows the least promise in terms of high finishes. With a 1% chance for a Top Finish and 5% for a Top-5 Finish, this combo represents the highest risk in terms of performance but comes at the lowest cost.
Overall, the Jaguars will be popular along with their opponent (the Chiefs) because of a high game total and condensed offense. They make for a solid stack in all formats, but be sure to be reticent of leverage points in larger field GPPs.
Contrarian Option: Cincinnati Bengals
Facts:
- In Week 1, Tee Higgins had the sixth-best utilization of any wide receiver or tight end, amassing 59% of the team’s air yards and a 24% target share. That said, just 14% of his targets were catchable.
- Joe Burrow had 82 yards passing in the season opener on a 45% completion percentage with a QBR of 22, by far the lowest marks of his career.
- CIN ran 11 personnel (one RB, one TE) on 74% of their plays, the seventh-highest rate in the league, while running that grouping 83% of the time in 2022.
Stack info (DraftKings)
Salary and projections:
- Combo 1 (Burrow/Chase/Higgins): The Median score is 49.78 for $21,200 in salary.
- Combo 2 (Burrow/Chase/Smith): The Median score is 42.62 for $18,000 in salary.
- Combo 3 (Burrow/Higgins/Smith): The Median score is 40.26 for $16,500 in salary.
The first combo provides approximately 49.78 / 21,200 = 2.35 points per unit of salary. Similarly, the second combo offers 2.37, while the third combo checks in at 2.44.
Finish percentiles
- Combo 1 (Burrow/Chase/Higgins): 13.92% Top Finish and 38.88% Top 5-Finish.
- Combo 2 (Burrow/Chase/Smith): 3.00% Top Finish and 15.72% Top-5 Finish.
- Combo 3 (Burrow/Higgins/Smith): 1.08% Top Finish and 9.96% Top-5 Finish.
High salary, high reward
This combination comes with a hefty price tag of $21,200 but also offers a tantalizing upside. With a median projected score of 49.78, it leads all the combos in expected performance. Furthermore, it holds a substantial chance for a Top Finish at 13.92% and a Top-5 Finish at 38.88%.
Oct 9, 2022; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase (1) speaks with quarterback Joe Burrow (9) during the game against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Moderate salary, moderate reward
The second combo comes in at a moderate $18,000. It offers a respectable Median score of 42.62 but falls short compared to the first combo. The chances for a Top Finish and Top-5 Finish are significantly lower at 3.00% and 15.72%, respectively.
Low salary, lowest reward
This is the budget option, with a salary of $16,500. It provides the best efficiency in terms of points-per-dollar production, but that efficiency comes at the cost of potential high finishes. This combo might be the one to go for if you're looking to take a 'stars and scrubs' approach, where you save here to splurge on high-performing players elsewhere.
The Bengals were a big letdown in Week 1, but Chase and Higgins both had terrific utilization and worst-case outcomes. Expect this team to bounce back in a big way in Week 2.
Value option: Houston Texans
Facts:
- The Texans used 11 personnel at a 72% clip in Week 1 with a 31% DBOE (dropback over expectation), both marks they didn’t reach once in 2022
- While none of the Texans pass-catchers had great utilization, Robert Woods’ expected 16.92 fantasy points was respectable, while Nico Collins had a strong .28 TPRR (targets per route run).
- Houston is projected for 1.54 passing touchdowns this week, putting them above the Seahawks (1.51) and right below the higher-owned Jaguars (1.57)
Stack info (DraftKings)
Salary and projections:
- Combo 1 (Stroud/Dell/Schultz): The Median score is 37.59 for $12,400 in salary.
- Combo 2 (Stroud/Collins/Schultz): The Median score is 37.43 for $14,000 in salary.
- Combo 3 (Stroud/Dell/Collins): The Median score is 37.2 for $13,200 in salary.
The first combo provides approximately 37.59 / 12,400 = 3.03 points per unit of Salary. Similarly, the second combo offers 2.67, while the third combo checks in at 2.82.
Finish percentiles
- Combo 1 (Stroud/Dell/Schultz): 0.48% Top Finish and 4.40% Top-5 Finish.
- Combo 2 (Stroud/Collins/Schultz): 0.56% Top Finish and 4.32% Top-5 Finish.
- Combo 3 (Stroud/Dell/Collins): 0.24% Top Finish and 4.28% Top-5 Finish.
Low salary, moderate reward
Despite checking in with the lowest salary of this trio, this combo offers a very efficient median projection of 37.59. However, its chances for a Top Finish (0.48%) and Top-5 Finish (4.40%) are relatively low.
Moderate salary, moderate reward
At $14,000, this combo slightly edges out the others in Top Finish chances at 0.56% but offers a similar Top-5 Finish percentage (4.32%). It doesn’t provide the same points-per-dollar value as the other Houston combinations, but it might be the most likely combo for a big score.
Balanced risk and reward
At $13,200, this combo sits between the first and second in terms of cost but lags slightly in median and top finishes.
Houston ran a surprisingly fantasy-friendly offense in Week 1, with good pass rates and strong expected fantasy points. Stroud just popped up on the injury report, but as long as he’s in the lineup, this team looks like a sneaky value to make things work in Week 2.
