DFS Stacks W16

Welcome to High-Value Facts and Stacks!

In this piece, I’ll outline three high-value stacks for DFS and provide some important stats that separate them from the rest of the pack.

Typically, the goal here will be to discuss one popular option, one less popular option, and one value option. This way, you can find the right stack to focus on for many situations!

All images and model data for both DraftKings and FanDuel are sourced from Paydirtdfs.com, with utilization and team-based data from the Utilization Tools here at Fantasy Life.

Popular option: Minnesota Vikings

Facts:

  • With Nick Mullens at QB last week, the Vikings ran a slower offense than they have most of the year with a PPMOE of -.28 (average of -.11) while also having a slightly lower pass rate of 58%, which likely means slightly lower ceilings for the main Vikings receivers.
     
  • After having just a 17% route participation in week 14, Justin Jefferson had a 97% rate in week 15 and a 30% target share, both in line with expectations for the star wideout, and we should expect him to have slate-breaking upside so long as Mullens can support it.
     
  • Since week 10, Jordan Addison has far surpassed teammate KJ Osborn in nearly every utilization category, including TPRR (16%/11%), Air Yards (31%/13%), and producing over 3x more fantasy points per game (12.4/3.75).

Stack Info (DraftKings)

Vikings Stack

Salary and projections:

  • Combo 1 (Mullens/Jefferson/Hockenson): With a salary of $19,200, this lineup has a Median score of 47.85. This suggests a high level of expected performance, reflected in its substantial salary.
     
  • Combo 2 (Mullens/Jefferson/Addison): Priced at $19,400, it presents a close Median score of 46.12. The slight increase in salary compared to Combo 1 correlates with a very slight decrease in expected median performance.
     
  • Combo 3 (Mullens/Addison/Hockenson): The most affordable at $17,100, it shows a Median score of 41.62, the lowest of the three, which aligns with its lower price.

Top Finish and High Scoring Potential

  • Combo 1 (Mullens/Jefferson/Hockenson):
    • Top Finish: Holds an 8.60% chance, indicating a robust likelihood of achieving the highest rank among the combos.
    • 3x% Return: With a 17.60% rate, it leads in potential for a high return on investment, complementing its strong Median score.
       
  • Combo 2 (Mullens/Jefferson/Addison):  
    • Top Finish: Possesses a 7.40% chance, only slightly lower than Combo 1, still offering a substantial opportunity for the top finish.
    • 3x% Return: The rate is at 14.70%, a bit lower than Combo 1 but still indicating a significant chance for a high return on investment.
       
  • Combo 3 (Mullens/Addison/Hockenson): 
    • Top Finish: At a much lower 2.00%, this combination is less likely to clinch the top finish, which is consistent with its lower Median score.
       
    • 3x% Return: The chance for a 3x return is at 15.00%, which is surprisingly competitive with Combo 2 despite the lower Median score and salary.

Combo 1: Top Tier with Ownership

A strong contender for those looking to optimize for a high median performance with a good chance of a top finish and a high return on investment.

Suitable for those willing to allocate a significant portion of their budget for a robust combination.

Combo 2: Strong Medians with Value

Presents a slight variation from Combo 1 with a small drop in the Median score and top finish probability.

However, its 3x% Return remains attractive, making it a valuable option for those looking for performance with a slight cost saving.

Combo 3: Budget Choice with Upside

This combination is the most budget-conscious, offering a lower Median score but maintaining a competitive 3x% Return. It's an interesting choice for players who wish to save on salary while still seeking a decent chance for a high return.

The Vikings looked fine in the first full week with Nick Mullens under center, with good volume (38 dropbacks) and a strong yards per attempt of 9.18. Assuming Justin Jefferson is fully healthy, the Vikings stacks are looking solid.

However, there will be ownership here, so keep that in mind when you are thinking about how to build around these stacks.

Contrarian Option: Dallas Cowboys

Facts:

  • The Dallas Cowboys have the second strongest offense in the league in terms of points per game at 30.79, while boasting the highest scoring drives per game at 5.07, while their opponent for this week, the Dolphins, average 31.50 points per game (best in the league) along with 4.79 scoring drives.
     
  • Of all wide receivers with 100+ routes, CeeDee Lamb has the third-best TPRR (27%), the eighth-best target% (29%), and the second-best PPR points per game (21.5) while really only competing with Tyreek Hill in terms of positional value in real games.
     
  • While Dak Prescott may have lost his MVP chances last week, he is still maintaining one of the best portfolios of baseline stats in the league, with a yards per attempt of 7.52, a 4:1 TD-INT ratio, and the fifth most fantasy points of all QBs at 284.

Stack info (DraftKings)

Cowboys Stack

Salary and projections:

  • Combo 1 (Prescott/Lamb/Ferguson): With a salary of $22,000, this lineup showcases a Median score of 47.24, which is the highest among the three, suggesting a strong average performance level.
     
  • Combo 2 (Prescott/Lamb/Cooks): Also priced at $22,000, it offers a slightly higher Median score of 46.16. Despite sharing the same salary as Combo 1, the slight difference in the Median score may indicate varied expected outcomes between the two.
     
  • Combo 3 (Prescott/Cooks/Ferguson): The most affordable at $17,700, it presents a Median score of 36.91. This combination offers significant savings, which is reflected in a lower expected performance.

The Cowboys got beat up a bit last week, but it was a blip on the map after scoring 33+ points or more for six straight games before that.

This week they have a terrific game environment up against the Dolphins in an over/under set at 50 points at the time of writing. Expect them to come out and right the ship even if Dak Prescott’s MVP odds are probably shot.

Top Finish and High-Scoring Potential

  • Combo 1 (Prescott/Lamb/Ferguson):
    • Top 5 Finish: Possesses a solid 33.40% probability, indicating a good chance of ranking among the top performers.
    • 60+% Potential: At 13.70%, this combo is likely to hit high-scoring games.
       
  • Combo 2 (Prescott/Lamb/Cooks):
    • Top 5 Finish: Holds a 28.00% chance, slightly lower than Combo 1, but still a substantial opportunity for a top-tier finish.
    • 60+% Potential: At 11.30%, it's marginally less likely than Combo 1 to achieve high-scoring games.
       
  • Combo 3 (Prescott/Cooks/Ferguson):
    • Top 5 Finish: At a lower 5.90%, the probability for a top finish decreases significantly, aligning with the reduced Median score.
    • 60+% Potential: The likelihood further diminishes to 0.80%, indicating much lower expectations for high-scoring performance.

Combo 1: Strongest Averages

This combination is well-suited for those aiming for a strong average performance, as it has the highest Median score and a robust chance for a Top 5 Finish and high-scoring games. It's ideal for those willing to invest at a higher salary for consistency and potential.

Combo 2: Slightly Lower Ceilings

Offers a slight variance from Combo 1, with a minor drop in Median score and a slight decrease in high-scoring potential. This option might appeal to those looking for a subtle change in the lineup without deviating much from the top-tier potential.

Combo 3: Risky Value Play

As the most budget-friendly option, this combination is for those who prioritize savings and are willing to accept a lower chance of top performance. Its significantly lower Median score and potential for high-scoring games make it a riskier choice.

Value option: Cleveland Browns

Facts:

  • In the last two games with Joe Flacco at QB, the Browns have a 64% and 73% dropback rate which signals a notable change to their 59% season-long average, giving a higher ceiling and expectation to the entire passing offense.
     
  • David Njouku has been on an absolute tear recently, with back-to-back 25+ fantasy point performances, but the bigger story is his aDOT has been above 6.00 for four straight weeks (season average of 4.41).
     
  • While Amari Cooper has been the lead dog for the Browns this year, Elijah Moore has started to catch up recently, and since week 10 has been averaging 9.5 PPR points per game along with handling 32% of the air yards and 18% of the play action targets.

Stack info (DraftKings)

Browns Stack

Salary and projections:

  • Combo 1 (Flacco/Cooper/Njoku): At a salary of $17,200, this combination has a Median score of 45.63. It represents the highest expected performance level among the three options, potentially justifying its higher cost.
     
  • Combo 2 (Flacco/Cooper/Moore): Priced slightly lower at $16,000, the Median score is a close 41.32. The decrease in Median is relatively small compared to the savings, making it an attractive alternative to Combo 1.
     
  • Combo 3 (Flacco/Moore/Njoku): The most budget-friendly choice at $15,000, it shows a Median score of 40.44. The modest reduction in expected performance for a significant saving might appeal to those looking to spread their budget across their lineup.

Finish percentiles

  • Combo 1 (Flacco/Cooper/Njoku): 
    • Top 5 Finish: Boasts a 26.60% chance, suggesting a strong probability of placing among the top performers.
    • 3x% Return: At 28.00%, this combination has the highest potential for tripling the investment, which pairs well with its higher Median score.
       
  • Combo 2 (Flacco/Cooper/Moore): 
    • Top 5 Finish: Holds a 13.00% chance, showing a substantial drop from Combo 1 but still offering a noteworthy opportunity for a high finish.
    • 3x% Return: The rate is at 21.90%, indicating a significant chance for a high return on investment, despite a lower Median score.
       
  • Combo 3 (Flacco/Moore/Njoku):
    • Top 5 Finish: At a much lower 12.50%, the likelihood for a top finish decreases but remains relatively close to Combo 2, considering the lower cost.
    • 3x% Return: With a 29.00% chance, it surprisingly offers the best potential for a high return compared to its cost, despite the lowest Median score.

Combo 1

This option is ideal for those aiming for a strong average performance with a solid chance for a top 5 finish and the highest 3x% return rate. It's suitable for those who are willing to invest in a higher-potential combination.

Combo 2

Offers a balanced approach, sacrificing a bit in Median score and top 5 finish probability for a lower salary. Its 3x% Return rate is still attractive, making it a valuable option for those looking for performance with a moderate cost saving.

Combo 3

As the most cost-effective selection, it may appeal to those who wish to allocate their budget across various players. Its high 3x% Return is particularly impressive, considering the significant savings and only a slight drop in Median score.

It's worth noting that the Browns could be a mirage, the sample is really small on a team that is far exceeding expectations based on Joe Flacco’s tenure. But the price mitigates a lot of those concerns and so long as the ownership continues to be low they are a strong option for GPPs.