Welcome to High-Value Facts and Stacks!

In this piece, I’ll outline three high-value stacks for DFS and provide some important stats that separate them from the rest of the pack.

Typically, the goal here will be to discuss one popular option, one less popular option, and one value option. This way, you can find the right stack to focus on for a wide array of situations!

All images and model data for both DraftKings and FanDuel are sourced from Paydirtdfs.com, with utilization and team-based data from the Utilization Tools here at Fantasy Life.

Popular option: Buffalo Bills

Facts:

  • Stefon Diggs is currently averaging some of the strongest marks of his career, with 107 yards per game and 8.33 catches, along with 17.50 expected fantasy points per game (actual average of 19.63).
  • The Bills have a strong Dropback Over Expectation (DBOE), sitting at 8% on the season with one game at 15% (Week 1 against the Jets), but their plays per minute are below league average, so they are prone to let down spots if the opponent doesn’t push the score.
  • There is currently no discernible difference between Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox in terms of snaps, TPRR, or target share, but it’s worth saying that Knox is getting more endzone targets and has a higher aDOT by a notable amount (7.28 vs. Kincaid’s baseline of 2.83)

Stack info (DraftKings)

Stack 1

Salary and projections:

  • Combo 1 (Allen/Diggs/Davis): This combination has a Median score of 60.37 and a $22,200 salary.
  • Combo 2 (Allen/Diggs/Kincaid): The Median score here is 56.03, with a salary of $19,500.
  • Combo 3 (Allen/Davis/Kincaid): The least expensive, this combination yields a Median score of 48.05 for $17,300.

When you look at the Median score per unit of salary, the first combo provides approximately 60.37 / $22,200 = 2.72 points per dollar.

The second combo offers 2.87 points per dollar, making it the most cost-efficient, while the third combo checks in at 2.78 points per dollar.

The second combo is marginally more "efficient" from a cost-to-median-score perspective.

Finish percentiles

  • Combo 1 (Allen/Diggs/Davis): High chances for top finishes – 22.08% Top Finish and 51.60% Top-5 Finish.
  • Combo 2 (Allen/Diggs/Kincaid): Moderate chances with an 11.60% Top Finish and 40.80% Top-5 Finish.
  • Combo 3 (Allen/Davis/Kincaid): Lower probabilities, with a 2.64% Top Finish and 16.92% Top-5 Finish.

Combo 1: High salary, high reward

With the highest salary and Median score, Combo 1 stands out for those looking to invest more for a significant shot at high finishes. The high top finish percentages illustrate its potential for massive rewards.

Combo 2: Moderate salary, moderate reward

Combo 2 offers balance, with a slightly lower salary and Median score than Combo 1. It remains a strong contender with decent probabilities for top finishes, representing a middle ground on the risk vs. reward spectrum.

Combo 3: Low salary, lowest reward

While Combo 3 is the most budget-friendly and efficient in terms of points per dollar, it comes with lower expectations for top finishes. This is a calculated option for those prioritizing efficiency and cost over potential high rewards.

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Contrarian option: Miami Dolphins

Facts:

  • In Week 3, the Dolphins scored 70 points against the Broncos, set franchise records in points scored, touchdowns, and total yards, and yet are currently underdogs in their Week 4 matchup.
  • Outside of last week, Tua Tagovailoa has shown to be a much better passer with Jaylen Waddle on the field, posting a 99.1 passer rating, 250 yards per game, and a 3:1 touchdown to interception ratio.
  • Although the Dolphins are three-point underdogs, their team total is a healthy 25.25, and their touchdown projection sits at the fourth best on the slate at 2.50.
Dolphins

Sep 17, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill (10) reacts after his touchdown against the New England Patriots in the second quarter at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

Stack info (DraftKings)

Stack 2

Salary and projections:

  • Combo 1 (Tagovailoa/Hill/Waddle): The highest Median score on the squad at 54.58 comes with the highest Salary of $24,200.
  • Combo 2 (Tagovailoa/Hill/Smythe): A Median score of 47.29 is available at a more moderate $19,600.
  • Combo 3 (Tagovailoa/Waddle/Smythe): The most affordable combo offers a Median score of 39.47 at $18,000.

While Combo 2 stands out for its efficiency, balancing this against the overall score potential and the individual strategic approach is essential. Likewise, although this stack won’t be as popular as others on the week, Tyreek Hill will hold the most ownership of any player here. Stacking MIA without him will ensure you can gain relative value.

Finish percentiles

  • Combo 1 (Tagovailoa/Hill/Waddle): A notable 8.96% Top Finish and 34.20% Top-5 Finish probability.
  • Combo 2 (Tagovailoa/Hill/Smythe): Middle-of-the-road with a 2.20% Top Finish and 14.92% Top-5 Finish chance.
  • Combo 3 (Tagovailoa/Waddle/Smythe): The least likelihood for top finishes — 0.16% Top Finish and 2.32% Top-5 Finish.

Combo 1: High salary, high reward

With its higher salary, this combination offers a significant reward potential, especially with its high Top-5 Finish probability. It’s preferable for those willing to invest more for substantial returns.

Combo 2: Moderate salary, moderate reward

Combo 2 represents a balanced option, costing nearly $5,000 less and combining efficiency and a moderate reward probability. It offers an excellent middle ground for participants seeking value. 

Combo 3: Lower salary, efficiency-oriented with lower reward

With the lowest Salary and reward probabilities, Combo 3 is a prudent choice for budget-conscious participants, focusing on efficiency over high returns. It should be used in only large field GPPs and offers a lot of volatility.

The Dolphins should come in at around half the ownership of a Bills stack with similar upside in the same game environment. After a 70-point outburst, it’s a terrific spot to go back to the well.

Value option: Las Vegas Raiders

Facts:

  • No offense in the NFL is more condensed than the Raiders, with 85%+ of all offensive opportunities going to Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, or Josh Jacobs, including a whopping 87% of team targets being distributed to the trio.
  • In terms of pure utilization, Adams ranks first in the league and has averaged 21.7 expected fantasy points per game, while Meyers has averaged 22.3 expected fantasy points.
  • Jimmy Garoppolo is averaging 1.67 passing TDs per game, the third-best rate of his career, while averaging a career-high 31.3 attempts.
Raiders

Sep 24, 2023; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Davante Adams (17) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the first quarter at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

Stack info (DraftKings)

Stack 3

Salary and projections:

  • Combo 1 (Garoppolo/Adams/Meyers): Commands the highest salary at $18,800 with a promising Median score of 53.56.
  • Combo 2 (Garoppolo/Adams/Hooper): A balanced option at $15,800, offering a Median score of 43.23.
  • Combo 3 (Garoppolo/Meyers/Hooper): The most budget-friendly at $13,300, with a lower Median score of 36.94.

It’s hard to justify dropping down from the combo of Jimmy/Adams/Meyers based on raw opportunity, but the salary savings of the third combo is enticing. Combo 1 offers the highest efficiency at 2.85 points per dollar and the most raw value, while Combo 3 offers the fewest raw points but the second-best efficiency.

Finish percentiles

  • Combo 1 (Garoppolo/Adams/Meyers): Strong performance with 8.64% Top Finish, 32.56% Top-5 Finish, and a high chance of scoring 60+ (32.12%). Also, it has a decent 4.72% chance of achieving 4x.
  • Combo 2 (Garoppolo/Adams/Hooper): More modest probabilities, particularly in Top Finish (0.88%) and Top-5 Finish (7.24%), but still holding a respectable 3.24% in 4x.
  • Combo 3 (Garoppolo/Meyers/Hooper): The lowest probabilities across the board, emphasizing its position as a high-risk option.

Combo 1: High salary, high reward

This combination offers the highest potential rewards, especially in Top-5 Finishes and 60+ points percentage. It's the go-to for a blend of high upside and balanced risk.

Combo 2: Moderate salary, moderate reward

This middle-ground combination offers respectable efficiency and moderate probabilities, making it a well-rounded option for those seeking value and some upside.

Combo 3: Low salary, efficiency-oriented with higher risk

The most affordable combo focuses on efficiency, though it comes with higher risk due to lower finishing probabilities. It’s a budget-conscious option that may suit risk-tolerant participants.

The biggest thing to focus on with Las Vegas is the condensed target tree and low ownership. Be cautious and pay attention to the Jimmy G injury news, but even if he ends up out of the game, the backup QB is at minimum price. The offense is very likely to stay similarly condensed and offer great value.