Welcome to High-Value Facts and Stacks!

In this piece, I’ll outline three high-value stacks for DFS and provide some important stats that separate them from the rest of the pack.

Typically, the goal here will be to discuss one popular option, one less popular option, and one value option. This way, you can find the right stack to focus on for a wide array of situations!

All images and model data for both DraftKings and FanDuel are sourced from Paydirtdfs.com, with utilization and team-based data from the Utilization Tools here at Fantasy Life.

Popular option: Detroit Lions

Facts:

  • Detroit has had a neutral pace all year, but their dropback rate and DBOE (dropback rate over expectation) have left something to be desired, with either a balanced or run-heavy approach in every week and just two games with a dropback rate of 60%+.
  • When looking at just WRs with 50+ routes on the season, Amon-Ra St. Brown is sixth in the league with a targets per route run (TPRR) at 28%, and his lowest PPR outcome so far has been a league-leading 16.2 fantasy points.
  • Opposing offenses are averaging a QB rating of 96.6 against the Chargers, with a 3.8% touchdown rate and a 68% completion percentage.

Stack info (DraftKings)

Stack 1

Salary and projections:

  • Combo 1 (Goff/St. Brown/LaPorta): At a premium of $20,400, this combination has the highest Median projection on the slate at 50.29, suggesting its strong potential to maximize fantasy output.
  • Combo 2 (Goff/St. Brown/Reynolds): A slightly more modest investment at $18,500, it offers a Median score of 44.10 and represents a valuable proposition for those looking to optimize their spending.
  • Combo 3 (Goff/Reynolds/LaPorta): The most accessible option at $15,900 with a Median score of 36.90, this combination is the best for those stretching every dollar in their lineup construction.

There are relatively drastic differences for each combination in terms of top finish rate and projection. St. Brown and Sam LaPorta are equally important for upside in terms of their price and position. That said, if you need savings, you can replace either with Josh Reynolds to look for some touchdown or big play upside.

Lions

Sep 7, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (14) celebrates with quarterback Jared Goff (16) after scoring during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Finish percentiles

  • Combo 1 (Goff/St. Brown/LaPorta): Leads confidently with a 15.10% Top Finish, a 41.50% Top-5 Finish, and a 59.50% Top-10 Finish, alongside an impressive 21.40% chance to hit 60+ fantasy points.
  • Combo 2 (Goff/St. Brown/Reynolds):  Follows with a 3.90% Top Finish, a 19.60% Top-5 Finish, and a 38.40% Top-10 Finish, plus a 7.60% opportunity to exceed 60+ fantasy points.
  • Combo 3 (Goff/Reynolds/LaPorta): Offers a modest 0.20% Top Finish, 4.50% Top-5 Finish, and 14.10% Top-10 Finish, with a slight 0.60% chance to surpass 60+ fantasy points.

Combo 1: Elite Choice with Maximum Value

This combination is a premium choice with the highest potential for top-end finishes. The balance of salary, projection, and potential returns makes it a strong contender.

Combo 2: Balanced Approach with Upside

This stack offers a blend of value and upside, providing savings while maintaining competitive odds for high finishes. Its value proposition for 2x and 3x salary returns is particularly appealing.

Combo 3: Value-Driven Selection

As the most economical pick, it offers a notable median score for its price, though its lower finishing percentiles suggest a more cautious approach might be warranted.

St. Brown’s consistency and LaPorta’s potential at a scarce position make Combo 1 particularly appealing. Reynolds' inclusion in the other combos provides cost savings, which could be beneficial in a broader fantasy strategy. Each combination serves a different approach, from aiming high with Combo 1 to finding a middle ground or stretching funds with Combos 2 and 3.

Considering the matchup with the Chargers and the overall game environment, the Lions make for a terrific priority in DFS and season-long this week.

Contrarian option: Cincinnati Bengals

Facts:

  • For all WRs with at least 50 routes run on the season, Ja’Marr Chase is tied for the highest target share at 32%, joining Tyreek Hill, AJ Brown, and Puka Nacua.
  • Cincinnati has the third-highest team total of any team playing in Week 10 at 26.75, a full touchdown above their season average of 19.38.
  • While Joe Burrow has had a relatively low yards per attempt on the year at just 6.04, he has been able to supplement that with good volume (308 total attempts this year) and a 13% rushing market share, which has kept him in the middle of the pack in fantasy production even through a rough start to the season.

Stack info (DraftKings)

Stack 2

Salary and projections:

  • Combo 1 (Burrow/Chase/Boyd): For a premium salary of $20,000, this combo leads with a Median score of 52.72, indicating a high likelihood of dominating fantasy point tallies.
  • Combo 2  (Burrow/Chase/Smith Jr.): This combination requires a manageable $18,100, offering a Median score of 46.43, marking it as a smart choice for those seeking a balance between cost and potential output.
  • Combo 3 (Burrow/Boyd/Smith Jr.): The most budget-friendly choice at $14,100 with a Median score of 35.95, this combination is ideal for managers looking to extend their funds across their roster.

In the realm of finish probabilities, the Burrow/Chase/Boyd combination boasts a 19.40% chance at a Top Finish, a strong 44.20% likelihood for a Top-5 Finish, and a 60.10% probability for a Top-10 Finish, with an impressive 27.90% chance of exceeding 60+ fantasy points. 

The Burrow/Chase/Smith Jr. combination offers a 5.50% Top Finish chance, 27.10% for Top-5, and 43.50% for Top-10, with an 11.80% opportunity to surpass 60+ fantasy points. 

The most affordable Burrow/Boyd/Smith Jr. lineup presents a modest 0.50% Top Finish likelihood, with a 4.80% chance for Top-5 and 12.10% for Top-10 finishes, alongside a 0.70% chance to break the 60+ fantasy points threshold.

Bengals

Jan 8, 2023; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase (1) celebrates his touchdown catch with Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tyler Boyd (83) in the second quarter against the Baltimore Ravens at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kareem Elgazzar-USA TODAY Sports

Combo 1: The High-Performance Investment

This combination is the go-to for those willing to allocate a more significant portion of their budget for potentially the highest returns.

Combo 2: The Value Proposition

With a slightly reduced cost and a high median score, this pairing offers a robust strategy for those looking for a strong performance without the highest expense.

Combo 3: The Economical Approach

This is the selection for fantasy players operating under tight budget constraints, offering a fair performance at a reduced salary cost.

There are some questions regarding Chase’s health, but if he plays, you have to assume he is healthy. That said, rostering Chase and Tyler Boyd as the centerpieces of the Bengals' passing stack is hard to pass up based on the median expectation and savings from a cheap WR2. The projection of 52.72 is the highest on the slate overall, and the salary is about $3k less than the top stacks we have seen in previous weeks. Overall, the Bengals are an excellent team to focus on.

Value option: Washington Commanders

Facts:

  • The volume has been terrific for the Commanders, and Sam Howell is making the most of it with a consistently low price tag on DFS sites and an average of 18.1 fantasy points per game, better than guys like Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, and Jared Goff.
  • Speaking of volume, the Commanders are the third-pass-heaviest team in the league per DBOE, with a rate of 7.6% above league average, trailing only the Chiefs (9.4%) and the Bengals (8.5%)
  • While their team total is at just 19.75, it’s worth noting that the team total for the Texans is just 20.25 and will likely command considerably more ownership in all formats because of the recency bias on CJ Stroud.

Stack info (DraftKings)

Stack 3

Salary and projections:

  • Combo 1 (Howell/McLaurin/Samuel): With a combined salary of $15,600, this top-tier set promises a high Median score of 41.77, signaling a robust potential for fantasy scoring.
  • Combo 2 (Howell/McLaurin/Thomas): This combination is a close second with a salary investment of $15,500 and a Median score of 39.23, offering a strategic blend of talent and value.
  • Combo 3 (Howell/Samuel/Thomas): The most affordable option at $13,600, sporting a Median score of 37.03, it represents a savvy pick for those maximizing their budget without significantly compromising on projected points.
Commanders

Nov 5, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Washington Commanders quarterback Sam Howell (14) throws the ball during the second half against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

Finish percentiles

When analyzing top finish probabilities, the Howell/McLaurin/Samuel combination leads with a 2.70% Top Finish chance, complemented by solid 2x, 3x, and 4x finishes at 83.90%, 33.20%, and 2.70%, respectively. 

The Howell/McLaurin/Thomas combination offers a 0.80% Top Finish potential and boasts considerable 2x and 3x finish chances. 

While the Howell/Samuel/Thomas lineup is the most economical, it shows a modest 0.40% Top Finish likelihood, with consistent 2x and 3x finish chances similar to the more expensive combinations.

Combo 1: Optimum Output

Ideal for those aiming for the best potential output without the highest price tag, this combination stands out for its favorable Median and high-percentile finishes.

Combo 2: Value-Driven Strategy

A marginally less expensive approach that does not significantly trail the top option in Median score. It’s suitable for those who weigh cost against performance closely.

Combo 3: Economical Approach

For players operating on a tighter budget, this selection offers the most cost-effective combination, delivering reasonable Median scores for the investment.

With the Commanders being one of the pass-heaviest teams in the league by DBOE, they are in consideration weekly when it comes to DFS stacks. It helps that they have a terrible defense that got worse recently by trading away two of their best pass rushers.

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