High-Value Facts & Stacks. Best Week 11 NFL DFS Stacks

Welcome to High-Value Facts and Stacks!

In this piece, I’ll outline three high-value stacks for DFS and provide some important stats that separate them from the rest of the pack.

Typically, the goal here will be to discuss one popular option, one less popular option, and one value option. This way, you can find the right stack to focus on for a wide array of situations!

All images and model data for both DraftKings and FanDuel are sourced from Paydirtdfs.com, with utilization and team-based data from the Utilization Tools here at Fantasy Life.

Popular option: Miami Dolphins

Facts:

• There is no team in the league with a more potent offense than the Miami Dolphins, who are averaging 31.67 points per game while having one of the slowest paces in the league at a plays per minute over expectation (PPMOE) of -.16, which shows that they aren’t even playing to full capacity for their ceiling.
• Likewise, there is no one in the league with a higher expected output than Tyreek Hill, who has an expected fantasy points per game of 20.76 while playing on just 80.75% of the routes, once again showing room for more upside if the Dolphins are ever in the position to force it.
• While Tua Tagovaiola doesn’t have the highest median averages in the league at just 19.7 PPR points per game, his floor is phenomenal at 11.3 and is only behind Jalen Hurts (14.5), Josh Allen (14), and CJ Stroud (12.6).

Stack info (DraftKings)

Miami's Fantasy Football Forecasts:

• High-Stakes Ensemble (Tagovailoa/Hill/Waddle): At $24,600, this premier combination boasts a Median score of 57.65 and shines with a Ceiling of 72.06, suggesting an exceptional high-scoring potential. Moreover, with a 46.0% chance to hit 60+ fantasy points, it's tailored for those aiming for the very top of GPPs.
• Strategic Mix (Tagovailoa/Hill/Smythe): This mid-tier grouping asks for $19,600 and presents a solid Median of 45.17 with a Ceiling of 56.46. Its 9.4% shot at exceeding 60+ fantasy points positions it as an excellent pick for those looking for high potential without the top-tier price.
• Value Combo (Tagovailoa/Waddle/Smythe): The most accessible at $17,900, with a Median of 37.50 and a Ceiling of 46.88, this combination stands out for budget-conscious managers. Although it offers a lower chance at 60+ fantasy points at 0.8%, it represents a strategic play for those seeking value and the possibility of a breakout performance.

Oct 29, 2023; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert (31) celebrates his touchdown against the New England Patriots with wide receiver Tyreek Hill (10) by doing a speed walk celebration in the end zone during the second half at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Ceiling and High-Performance Potential:

• Premium Pick (Tagovailoa/Hill/Waddle): Ideal for those who prioritize a combination with the highest ceiling, indicative of maximum scoring prowess, and a strong likelihood of surpassing 60+ fantasy points.
• Optimal Balance (Tagovailoa/Hill/Smythe): For players looking to balance high-scoring potential and salary utilization, this pairing offers a commendable ceiling with a reasonable chance of hitting the coveted 60+ threshold.
• Economical Option (Tagovailoa/Waddle/Smythe): While this selection may not boast the highest ceiling, it's a calculated risk for those looking to leverage potential upswings in performance against a lower salary cost.

There are clear drops here in terms of fantasy expectation as you drop down the ladder from Tua/Tyreek/Waddle, but the price drops justify them, so you can feel confident about any combination. Considering Miami has the highest team total on the slate at 30 points — and a passing stack should leverage the De’Von Achane chalk — this is a premium team to build around.

Contrarian option: Buffalo Bills

Facts:

• Stefon Diggs is having another fantastic season and has had just three regular-season games with less than 10 PPR points over the past two years.
• While it’s a natural progression for large rushing QBs (Cam Newton, Ben Roethlisberger), we are seeing the decline of Josh Allen’s rushing efficiency in year five, with his attempts per game down from an average of 6.83 to just 4.80 while his yards per attempt has dropped by 20% as well.
• Since Week 6, Dalton Kincaid has had one of the best utilizations for tight ends, with an 84% route participation, 24% target share, and 17.0 PPR points per game.

Stack info (DraftKings)

Buffalo's Fantasy Football Projections:

• Premier Buffalo Stack (Allen/Diggs/Kincaid): With a $22,200 salary, this elite combination offers a solid Median score of 50.95 and a 34.9% chance of a Top-5 Finish. Its potential is further underscored by a 24.2% likelihood of exceeding 60+ fantasy points, making it a prime choice for those seeking consistent high-level performance.
• Dynamic Buffalo Duo (Allen/Diggs/Davis): At $22,800, this pair presents a slightly lower Median of 45.65 but still maintains a competitive chance for a Top-5 Finish at 16.8%. Its 8.8% chance to hit 60+ fantasy points offers a blend of reliability and upside potential.
• Value Buffalo Combination (Allen/Davis/Kincaid): The most budget-friendly option at $18,600, it posts a Median score of 43.59. Although it has the lowest chance at a Top-5 Finish of the group (15.4%), the opportunity to surpass 60+ fantasy points stands at 7.9%, offering a cost-effective solution with a strong possibility for high performance. It also provides the best 2x and 3x potential among the Bills’ stacks.

Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid (86) dives for extra yards. He had 5 catches and a touchdown against the Broncos.

Strategic Considerations:

• Optimal Median Mastery (Allen/Diggs/Kincaid): This strategy is perfect for managers who value a high Median score indicative of steady fantasy production and a significant chance of being among the top performers.
• Balanced Top-Tier Approach (Allen/Diggs/Davis): For those who prefer a balanced mix of high Median and good Top-5 Finish potential, this combination promises a substantial reward for a slightly higher investment.
• Economical High-Impact Play (Allen/Davis/Kincaid): This combination is ideal for those who want to maximize value while still retaining a shot at high-impact performances, as evidenced by its respectable Median and Top-5 Finish chances.

Buffalo combinations are interesting this week because we rarely see the highest-priced trio have anything but the highest median expectation. However, in recent weeks, Kincaid has been the clear #2 option in the offense. That results in a higher expectation than Gabe Davis, even if his ceiling is lower.

When you consider the Bills are now in panic mode after firing their offensive coordinator, you have to expect them to come out at full force and push the envelope to their best players, making them a strong option in all formats.

Value option: Arizona Cardinals

Facts:

• One of the key factors of Kyler Murray’s fantasy upside has been his rushing efficiency, which was called into question after his injury. However, he had six rushing attempts in his first game back, which aligns with his career averages.
• In terms of team-level expectations, the Cardinals continue to be consistent in their pass rate and pace, being a neutral to below-average pace team at a PPMOE of -.05 with a dropback over expectation (DBOE) of -3%.
• While their team total of 21.75 doesn’t seem especially high, the Cardinals are above the Eagles (21.25) and just below the Rams (22.50) in expected output, and Vegas sees them performing above their baseline score of 17 points on the season.

Stack info (DraftKings)

Arizona's Fantasy Football Combinations:

• High-Potential Trio (Murray/Brown/McBride): With a $15,800 salary, this combination stands out with a Median score of 42.02, indicating consistent scoring potential. Its Top-10 Finish chance at 24.8% suggests nearly a quarter chance of ranking in the upper tier, and with a 2.2% chance at quadrupling value (4x%), it's a compelling choice for those seeking high performance with a moderate investment.
• Value-Driven Pair (Murray/Wilson/McBride): This more affordable selection at $13,900 offers a respectable Median of 37.62 and a 9.6% shot at a Top-10 Finish, making it a smart pick for cost-conscious managers. The 2.6% likelihood of achieving 4x value underscores its potential as a sleeper pick for a strong fantasy showing.

Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray (1) runs the ball in for a touchdown past Atlanta Falcons linebacker Nate Landman (53) at State Farm Stadium.

Strategic Fantasy Insights:

• Consistent Performer (Murray/Brown/McBride): Ideal for managers looking for a reliable Median with a strong shot at Top-10 finishes, this combination balances investment with the potential for high returns.
• Economical Upside (Murray/Wilson/McBride): This combination is tailored for those who prioritize saving salary cap while still maintaining a chance for a Top-10 Finish and a significant 4x% potential, indicative of an opportunity for a high-value performance.

The question this week with Cardinals stacks is who to pair with Trey McBride, as he is a clear staple for this offense after Zach Ertz’s injury. These are going to be popular combos considering the price and upside, so if you choose to go this route, you need to be reticent of the one-off players you use to round out your lineups.