Welcome to High-Value Facts and Stacks!

In this piece, I’ll outline three high-value stacks for DFS and provide some important stats that separate them from the rest of the pack.

Typically, the goal here will be to discuss one popular option, one less popular option, and one value option. This way, you can find the right stack to focus on for a wide array of situations!

All images and model data for both DraftKings and FanDuel are sourced from Paydirtdfs.com, with utilization and team-based data from the Utilization Tools here at Fantasy Life.

Value option: San Francisco 49ers

Facts:

  • Brandon Aiyuk has finished with 10+ PPR  points in every full game he has played this year and has three top-10 PPR finishes at the position
  • Brock Purdy has the highest yards per attempt of any QB with 50+ dropbacks and is the No. 9 scoring QB in fantasy despite having the 29th-highest volume (27.7 attempts per game).
  • The 49ers have the second-highest touchdowns per drive rate at 31% (MIA is first at 34%) and have the highest shift/motion rate at 90%.

Stack info (DraftKings)

Stack 1

Salary and projections:

  • Combo 1 (Purdy/Samuel/Aiyuk): This lineup commands a $19,500 salary and is distinguished by a Median score of 48.67. It’s the top combo on the squad.
  • Combo 2 (Purdy/Samuel/Kittle): Slightly less expensive at $18,500, the Median score sees a minor dip to 47.18. The savings could be invested elsewhere in your roster for a balanced approach.
  • Combo 3 (Purdy/Aiyuk/Kittle): Matching Combo 1 in salary, it presents a Median score of 46.07. This combo has the lowest projections of the trio but does at least fill the tight end spot.

The median projections combined with the pricing allow you to really pick your poison, with no real outlier leading the charge as a “must-roster.” That has pros and cons, with the most annoying con being that you have to rely on some variance of outcomes, but it does help you with flexibility in terms of positional usage.

Top-5 Finish and 3x% Potential

  • Combo 1 (Purdy/Samuel/Aiyuk): 
    • Top 5 Finish: This trio leads with a 34.10% chance, reflecting a significant likelihood of placing among the top performers.
    • 3x Return: At 20.00%, it offers the highest potential for tripling your investment, which aligns with its strong Median score.
  • Combo 2 (Purdy/Samuel/Kittle):  
    • Top 5 Finish: Holding a 29.60% chance, it provides a respectable shot at top-tier finishes, though slightly less than Combo 1.
    • 3x Return: With a 23.20% rate, it surprisingly exceeds Combo 1 in this metric, suggesting efficient value for money spent.
  • Combo 3 (Purdy/Aiyuk/Kittle): 
    • Top 5 Finish: The probability decreases to 25.10%, signaling a modest but still notable potential for high placement.
    • 3x Return: At 12.60%, the likelihood of tripling the salary is the lowest, which may require weighing the savings against the potential for high returns.
49ers

Nov 23, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel (19) eats a turkey leg as he and quarterback Brock Purdy (13) jog to the locker room following a 31-13 victory against the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Combo 1: Upside and Value

This combo offers the highest Median score and solid top-5 finish chances, so it’s tailored for those focused on maximizing point potential and aiming for the top of the standings.

Combo 2: Best Value of the Bunch

Despite a slightly lower Median score, it's a strong contender due to its excellent 3x return chances, making it an intriguing option for those seeking value without significantly sacrificing performance.

Combo 3: Contrarian Combo

With the same cost as Combo 1 but lower performance indicators, this combination might appeal to those looking for a different mix of players while maintaining cost-effectiveness.

None of these combinations cost more than $20,000 on DraftKings, which signals an excellent buy-low opportunity for an MVP-worthy QB and capable receivers. When you add in a playoff-intensity matchup with the Eagles, this makes for the best game environment on the slate. Look to have a lot of exposure here so you can spend up at premium positions elsewhere.

Popular option: Miami Dolphins

Facts:

  • The Dolphins are averaging the second most points in the league at 30.82 (The Cowboys lead with 32.33) while having the most touchdown drives per game and fewest field goals, signaling upside for their offense across the board.
  • Tyreek Hill has the third-highest expected fantasy points per game on the slate at 21.32, while Jaylen Waddle sits at 39th at a respectable 12.92 (though he has been overproducing that).
  • The Commanders have allowed 277.5 pass yards per game, a 28:6 touchdown to interception ratio, and a 104 QB rating to opposing teams, which makes for a potential field day for the league's highest octane offense.

Stack info (DraftKings)

Stack 2

Salary and projections:

  • Combo 1 (Tagovailoa/Hill/Waddle): With the highest salary at $25,100, this combination tops the chart with a Median score of 58.43. It stands out for its high potential, mirrored in its superior Ceiling of 73.04.
  • Combo 2 (Tagovailoa/Hill/Smythe): This mid-range option is priced at $20,000 and yields a Median score of 46.03. While its Ceiling drops to 57.54, it maintains a competitive edge for a more moderate investment.
  • Combo 3 (Tagovailoa/Waddle/Smythe): It presents a Median score of 39.22 at a very affordable $18,000. However, its Ceiling of 49.03 is the lowest of the trio, reflecting a conservative estimate of its potential for high scores.

The Dolphins stacks rely on Hill to unlock upside, making the third combo almost unusable outside of the largest field contests.

Tyreek

Nov 24, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill (10) carries the ball during the first half against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Top 5 Finish and High-Scoring Potential

  • Combo 1 (Tagovailoa/Hill/Waddle):  Dominates with a 62.60% probability of finishing Top 5 on the week while also providing a 46.50% chance of scoring 60+ fantasy points.
  • Combo 2 (Tagovailoa/Hill/Smythe): A considerable drop to a 24.10% chance of finishing Top 5 but still provides a decent probability of achieving top-tier finishes. Likewise, at a 12.90% rate of hitting 60+ fantasy points, it offers a respectable chance to achieve high-scoring outputs, albeit less than half as likely as Combo 1.
  • Combo 3 (Tagovailoa/Waddle/Smythe): At only 8.90%, this combo's potential to hit the upper echelons is notably slimmer. The chance to score 60+ also plummets to 2.70%, indicating a much lower expectation for high-scoring performances.

Combo 1: Powerful with Upside

This stack is the quintessential powerhouse, carrying the highest expectations across the board. Its price is justified by its top-end projection and substantial chances of securing a high finish.

Combo 2: A Balanced Choice

A balance of cost and upside, this combo is for those who seek a reasonable shot at success without the premium price tag.

Combo 3: The Value Option

For the budget-conscious, this combination offers a way to engage with the game at a lower cost. However, expectations should be tempered in terms of ceiling and the chance for a top 5 finish.

The matchup with the Commanders is a spot that has produced GPP and league-winning performances all year long, and the Dolphins will likely be added to that pantheon. They have a strong team total (29.75) in a game environment that should see more pass attempts than any other game on the slate.

Contrarian option: Houston Texans

Facts:

  • The Houston Texans have two WRs in the top 20 in PPR points per game (Tank Dell at 16.50 and Nico Collins at 16.00), with Noah Brown sitting at 26th, giving them one of the highest upside target trees in the league.
  • While the Texans are typically considered a more pass-oriented team, they have only had one game with a DBOE over +10% and are much closer to a balanced/neutral team than a pass-heavy one.
  • CJ Stroud has the fourth-best minimum output at QB in the league at 12.6 fantasy points, and the only QBs ahead of him all have considerably better rushing upside (Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts, and Josh Allen)

Stack info (DraftKings)

Stack 3

Salary and projections:

  • Combo 1 (Stroud/Collins/Dell): Commanding the highest salary at $22,300, this combination boasts a robust Median score of 50.87. It holds a Ceiling of 63.59, suggesting a strong potential for peak performance.
  • Combo 2 (Stroud/Dell/Schultz): With a slightly lower salary of $20,300, the Median score dips to 45.36, and the Ceiling decreases to 56.70, reflecting a more modest yet potent upside.
  • Combo 3 (Stroud/Collins/Schultz): The most affordable at $19,900, and offers a Median score of 44.59. Its Ceiling of 55.74 suggests it still retains a reasonable potential for high-scoring outputs despite being the least expensive.
Texans

Nov 26, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) celebrates with wide receiver Nico Collins (12) after a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Jacksonville Jaguars at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Finish percentiles

  • Combo 1 (Stroud/Collins/Dell): 
    • Top 5 Finish: This combo excels with a 40.50% probability, indicating a high likelihood of securing a top-tier finish.
    • 60+ potential: At 23.50%, it demonstrates a considerable chance of surpassing the 60+ fantasy points threshold.
  • Combo 2 (Stroud/Collins/Schultz): 
    • Top 5 Finish: Possesses a 20.20% chance, showing a respectable potential but notably less than Combo 1.
    • 60+ Potential: The likelihood sits at 8.20%, indicating a decent but less strong potential for high-scoring games compared to Combo 1.
  • Combo 3 (Stroud/Dell/Schultz):
    • Top 5 Finish: At a lower 20.50%, the probability is quite close to Combo 2, which is interesting given the slight difference in salary.
    • 60+ Potential: Similar to Combo 2, it has an 8.00% chance, making it competitive in terms of high-scoring outputs.

Combo 1: Top-Tier Performance

This stands as the premier selection for those aiming for the highest fantasy output. Its higher salary is justified by its superior metrics, especially its likelihood of achieving a Top-5 finish.

Combo 2: Lower Owned Upside

Offers a balanced option that retains competitive upside while providing a bit of salary relief. It's a strategic pick for those seeking value with performance potential close to the top option.

Combo 3: Strong Budget Play

Despite being the most budget-friendly, it’s close to Combo 2 in top 5 and 60+ probabilities, making it an attractive pick for those looking to maximize value across their lineup.

There’s not much more to say about the Texans that hasn’t already been said. Stroud is arguably having a better rookie season than Justin Herbert, and if he continues on this path, he may end up having the best rookie season in modern football history. That feels weird to type, but it’s possible! Keep stacking them up and hope that the heat continues.

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