DFS Stacks

Welcome to High-Value Facts and Stacks!

In this piece, I’ll outline three high-value stacks for DFS and provide some important stats that separate them from the rest of the pack.

Typically, the goal here will be to discuss one popular option, one less popular option, and one value option. This way, you can find the right stack to focus on for a wide array of situations!

All images and model data for both DraftKings and FanDuel are sourced from Paydirtdfs.com, with utilization and team-based data from the Utilization Tools here at Fantasy Life.

Popular option: Dallas Cowboys

Facts:

  • Dak Prescott is the No. 4 QB in fantasy this year (325.78 fantasy points), behind only Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Lamar Jackson – AKA the rushy boys.
  • There is an argument to be made that CeeDee Lamb was the best WR in fantasy this year, with a 91% route participation and 20% target share, along with 34% of the endzone targets and 32% of the 3rd/4th down targets.
  • The Commanders have allowed 480 total points this year — which is a lot — but more impressive is that they have allowed 160 points in the fourth quarter alone, a full 34 points more than the second-worst Cardinals.

Stack info (DraftKings)

Stack 1

Salary and projections:

  • Combo 1 (Prescott/Lamb/Ferguson): With a $22,000 salary, this lineup boasts a Median score of 53.02, indicating a strong expected performance. The higher cost is aligned with a high Median, suggesting this combo could be a reliable core for your lineup.
  • Combo 2 (Prescott/Lamb/Cooks): This combination requires a slightly higher investment at $22,500 and offers a Median score very close to Combo 1, at 51.16. The incremental cost increase is marginal compared to the slight drop in Median, suggesting that Cooks' inclusion provides a slightly different dynamic without drastically changing the expected performance.
  • Combo 3 (Prescott/Cooks/Ferguson): The most affordable option at $18,100, the Median score dips to 39.42. This significant saving in salary comes at the cost of a lower expected Median, which might be justified if it allows for strategic allocation of funds elsewhere in your lineup.
cowboys

Nov 23, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (88) and quarterback Dak Prescott (4) talk during the game against the Washington Commanders at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Top Finish and High Scoring Potential

  • Combo 1 (Prescott/Lamb/Ferguson):
    • Top Finish: This combo shines with an 18.8% chance, indicating a substantial likelihood of finishing at the top, complementing its high Median score.
    • 60+ Potential: At 30.9%, it also has the highest probability among the three for scoring in the top 60+, suggesting a high ceiling for performance.
  • Combo 2 (Prescott/Lamb/Cooks):
    • Top Finish: A slightly lower chance at 14.1%, but still maintaining solid potential for top-tier finishes.
    • 60+ Potential: Stands at 23.4%, a decent probability but not as high as Combo 1, indicating a moderate trade-off between cost and high-scoring potential.
  • Combo 3 (Prescott/Cooks/Ferguson):
    • Top Finish: Only a 0.80% chance, showing a steep decline from the other two combos, reflecting its lower Median and overall expected performance.
    • 60+ Potential: The likelihood diminishes to 1.7%, which is significantly less compared to the other combinations, suggesting that while it is budget-friendly, it comes with a considerably lower expectation for high scoring.

Combo 1: This is the standout choice for those looking to anchor their lineup with strong expected performance, as indicated by its high Median score and the best odds for a Top Finish and surpassing the 60+ threshold. It's the most suitable for players willing to invest more for a higher potential payout.

Combo 2: Serves as a nuanced alternative to Combo 1, offering slightly less in Median and top-tier potential but still holding on to a strong probability for high performance. This could be a strategic pick for those who expect Cooks to outperform his price point.

Combo 3: As the most budget-conscious selection, it's tailored for those looking to spread their budget across the lineup or take a contrarian approach. Its significantly lower Median and probabilities for Top Finish and 60+ make it a riskier play, but one that could provide unique leverage in large field tournaments.

Picking on the Commanders’ defense has been easy all season, and it’s certainly viable again this week. The Cowboys have the highest team total on the slate at 30 points and face a WAS team that has allowed 35 TDs and 11.5 yards per completion on the year. You don’t have to overthink this spot; just find different ways to build relative value.

Contrarian Option: Philadelphia Eagles

Facts:

  • While the Eagles' defense has been Charmin soft, their offense has kept them in games all year, with an average of 26.44 points per game on the second-fewest drives per game at 10.25.
  • No QB in the league came even close to the rushing equity that Jalen Hurts demanded all year. His 25% designed rush rate was 6 full points above Lamar Jackson at No. 2, and his 47% rate of inside-the-five rushing attempts was 10% higher than Josh Allen (who has 15 rushing TDs himself).
  • With a spread of just 4.5 points against the Giants, there is projected to be a lot of scoring from both sides here, which is the kind of game environment we want to focus on, especially during the Week 18 craziness.

Stack info (DraftKings)

Stack 2

Salary and projections:

  • Combo 1 (Hurts/Brown/Smith): With the highest salary at $23,700, this combination leads with a Median score of 49.23. The significant investment suggests a high level of confidence in this trio's scoring ability.
  • Combo 2 (Hurts/Brown/Goedert): Priced at $21,900, the Median score dips slightly to 47.39. The modest decrease in Median score alongside a reduced salary could appeal to those seeking value without a significant drop-off in expected performance.
  • Combo 3 (Hurts/Smith/Goedert): The most economical at $20,100, it has a Median score of 42.95. This combination provides a more affordable option for those looking to maximize value with a reasonable expected performance.

The Eagles should come in with about half the ownership of the Cowboys in GPPs this week, representing an opportunity for us to build easy relative value. Interestingly, you would expect the ownership difference here to be because of blowout concerns for the Eagles, but the Cowboys are considerably larger favorites. There’s an excellent opportunity to ride the Eagles in a closer spread for all the upside they bring to the table.

Eagles

Oct 1, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) and wide receiver A.J. Brown (11) walk off the field against the Washington Commanders at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Top Finish and High-Scoring Potential

  • Combo 1 (Hurts/Brown/Smith):
    • Top-5 Finish: Stands at 38.3%, indicating a substantial likelihood of ranking among the top performers.
    • 60+ Potential: At 21.0%, it also has the highest probability of scoring in the upper tier, underlining its potential for high performance.
  • Combo 2 (Hurts/Brown/Goedert):
    • Top-5 Finish: A bit lower at 31.6%, but still indicative of a substantial chance of finishing in the top bracket.
    • 60+ Potential: Drops to 16.0%, less than Combo 1 but still indicative of strong potential.
  • Combo 3 (Hurts/Smith/Goedert):
    • Top-5 Finish: The probability decreases to 16.1%, reflecting the lower Median score and the reduced likelihood of a top-tier finish.
    • 60+ Potential: With a 5.9% likelihood, it's significantly lower than the other combos, suggesting that while it's more affordable, high-scoring outcomes are less probable.

Combo 1: Highest Price for Best Medians

This is the premium option for those targeting the highest average performance, as indicated by its high Median score. It's also the most likely to achieve a Top-5 Finish and score above 60, making it suitable for players willing to invest more for potentially higher returns.

Combo 2: Balanced Salary for Upside

Presents a balanced compromise, offering a slightly lower Median and reduced chances for a Top-5 Finish and 60+ scoring. This could be the strategic pick for those looking to balance cost with the potential for high performance.

Combo 3: Lots of Risk for Savings

As the most budget-friendly selection, it's tailored for those who wish to stretch their budget across their lineup. However, the significantly lower probabilities for Top 5 Finishes and 60+ scoring make it a riskier play with potentially lower returns.

Value option: Green Bay Packers

Facts:

  • Here’s one that you probably didn’t know: Jordan Love is the No. 9 QB in fantasy, right behind Patrick Mahomes and above Tua Tagovailoa, Matthew Stafford, and Trevor Lawrence.
  • The Bears have allowed 29 touchdown passes this year, and while their yards per attempt allowed is relatively low at 6.4, they have the highest red zone conversion rate in the league, with 70.7% of passes becoming TDs.
  • We need to wait for confirmation of injury reports, but if Jayden Reed and Christian Watson are a go in this game, the Packers will have their receiving core healthy for the first week since Week 13.

Stack info (DraftKings)

Stack 3

Salary and projections:

  • Combo 1 (Love/Reed/Watson): At a salary of $17,000, this lineup offers a Median score of 42.49. This suggests it has a reliable expected performance, suitable for its mid-range salary.
  • Combo 2 (Love/Reed/Kraft): With a slightly lower salary of $16,000, the Median score decreases marginally to 41.31. The slight drop in Median score corresponds with the reduced salary, offering a balanced option.
  • Combo 3 (Love/Watson/Kraft): The most budget-friendly choice at $15,000, it presents a Median score of 39.61. This is the lowest Median of the three but comes with the benefit of the lowest salary, making it an attractive option for those looking to save.
Watson

Green Bay Packers wide receiver Christian Watson (9) pulls down a long first down reception in the third quarter against Detroit Lions cornerback Amani Oruwariye (24) during their football game Sunday, January 8, 2023, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis.

Finish percentiles

  • Combo 1 (Love/Reed/Watson):
    • Top-10 Finish: Possesses a 29.4% chance, indicating a relatively high likelihood of securing a top-tier finish.
    • 3x Return: Stands at 19.3%, suggesting a reasonable potential for a high return on investment.
  • Combo 2 (Love/Reed/Kraft): 
    • Top-10 Finish: Slightly lower at 25.1%, it still offers a decent chance of finishing in the upper echelons.
    • 3x Return: At 22.2%, this combination surprisingly has the best potential for a high return despite a slightly lower Median score.
  • Combo 3 (Love/Watson/Kraft):
    • Top-10 Finish: Shows an 18.8% chance, the lowest among the three, reflecting its lower Median score.
    • 3x Return: At 24.70%, it has the highest 3x return rate, making it an intriguing option for those seeking to maximize the points-per-dollar production from their stack.

Combo 1: Offers a strong balance between cost and expected performance, leading the group in Median score and Top-10 Finish probability. It's suitable for those willing to invest in a reliable core for their lineup.

Combo 2: Presents as a value proposition with a slightly lower Median but the highest 3x return potential. This could be the strategic pick for those looking for upside potential while saving on salary.

Combo 3: As the most economical selection, it's appealing for budget-conscious players. Despite the lowest Median and Top-10 Finish chances, its high 3x return potential makes it a riskier but potentially rewarding play.

The Packers are playing for the playoffs this week and should have Watson back to help them push. It’s a home game against the Bears, who have had a suspect secondary for the better part of the year, so we should expect them to come out firing. While they aren’t a typical value stack in terms of ultra-low pricing, they still fit the bill regarding this slate.