Welcome to High-Value Facts and Stacks!

In this piece, I’ll outline three high-value stacks for DFS and provide some important stats that separate them from the rest of the pack.

Typically, the goal here will be to discuss one popular option, one less popular option, and one value option. This way, you can find the right stack to focus on for a wide array of situations!

All images and model data for both DraftKings and FanDuel are sourced from Paydirtdfs.com, with utilization and team-based data from the Utilization Tools here at Fantasy Life.

Popular option: Philadelphia Eagles

Facts:

  • The Eagles are averaging 28 points per game and scoring on 46% of their drives, both top-five marks in the league, although their FG rate is higher than other high-powered offenses at 2.57 per game.
  • Even with a strong career, Jalen Hurts is achieving career-high marks in 2023, with per-game marks of 24 completions and a 68% competition rate on top of nearly 10 rush attempts per game.
  • Receivers A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith are combining for 78% of the air yards on the team, with Brown making up 47%, which gives him a stellar air yards per route run of 3.60 (third-best in the league).

Stack info (DraftKings)

Eagles stacks

Salary and projections:

  • Combo 1 (Hurts/Brown/Smith): The most expensive option at $23,700, it showcases a Median score of 52.2.
  • Combo 2 (Hurts/Brown/Goedert): Priced at $21,400, it offers a Median score of 50.7.
  • Combo 3 (Hurts/Smith/Goedert): The least expensive of the trio at $19,900, it has a considerably lower Median than Combos 1 and 2 at 42.3.

The big piece to build around here is A.J. Brown, who carries the medians and high-end upside of the stack. If you choose to play DeVonta Smith instead, only do it in larger fields to introduce more volatility.

Finish percentiles

  • Combo 1 (Hurts/Brown/Smith): It leads the pack with a 22.6% Top Finish, a promising 54.7% Top-5 Finish, a 71.2% Top-10 Finish and an impressive 27.4% chance to clear the 60% percentile.
  • Combo 2 (Hurts/Brown/Goedert):  Combo 2 is next with a 19.4% Top Finish, 52.0% Top-5 Finish, 68.6% Top-10 Finish and a 25.0% chance to surpass the 60% percentile.
  • Combo 3 (Hurts/Smith/Goedert): With a 3.3% Top Finish, 21.0% Top-5 Finish, 39.0% Top-10 Finish and a 4.8% chance to exceed the 60% percentile, Combo 3 is valuable but risky.

Combo 1: High Performance at a Premium

This combination is a premium choice with the highest potential for top-end finishes. The balance of salary, projection and potential returns makes it a strong contender.

Combo 2: Value Play with Good Potential

Offering a blend of value and upside, this combo provides savings while maintaining competitive odds for high finishes. Its value proposition for 2x and 3x salary returns is particularly appealing.

Combo 3: Budget-Friendly Option

As the budget option, it's considerably riskier in terms of potential upside. While it offers significant savings, the drop in projection and finish odds needs to be factored in. It could be a strategic choice in larger portfolios where diversifying risk is essential.

The data suggests that A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith together fetch the best results. However, if you're trying to save on the budget, opting for Dallas Goedert over Brown might be the way to go, although it does present a bit of a risk in terms of potential points. Aim to diversify your approach based on your risk appetite and the specific contest you're entering.

Contrarian option: Baltimore Ravens

Facts:

  • Even though he is 16th in the league in total dropbacks at 279, Lamar Jackson is second in the league in designed rushing attempts at 19.03% and leads the league with 11.11% scrambles per game, which secures the best floor in fantasy football.
  • Baltimore looks a lot like the Eagles above in terms of points per game, with an average of 25.25 and a pass rate below 60% (55.56%), but Baltimore is much less likely to kick field goals as only 11% of their drives have ended up in 3 points.
  • Mark Andrews and Zay Flowers have had similar utilization, with Andrews having the more valuable targets (38.46% of end zone targets), while Flowers leads the way in air yards and raw target rate (26.68% air yards, 26.94% targets)

Stack info (DraftKings)

Baltimore stacks

Salary and projections:

  • Combo 1 (Jackson/Flowers/Andrews): Holding the top spot in terms of price at $20,700, it boasts a Median score of 43.5.
  • Combo 2 (Jackson/Flowers/Agholor): Moderately priced at $16,900, it projects a Median score of 37.4.
  • Combo 3 (Jackson/Agholor/Andrews): The most economical choice at $18,000, it displays a Median of 36.3. Even with its appealing price, its median performance isn't far off from Combo 2.

Analyzing the projections, Combo 1 emerges as the performance leader, but Combo 3 shines as a budget-conscious selection that doesn't heavily sacrifice on the projected Median score. Realistically, the main engine here is Lamar Jackson, so pairing him with any of his top couple options is going to be fine in most formats.

Lamar Jackson

Oct 29, 2023; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) looks to pass in the first half against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

Finish percentiles

  • Combo 1 (Jackson/Flowers/Andrews): Takes the lead with a 4.8% Top Finish, an encouraging 27.0% Top-5 Finish, a solid 45.7% Top-10 Finish and a 7.2% likelihood to exceed the 60% percentile.
  • Combo 2 (Jackson/Flowers/Agholor): Steps in with a 0.7% Top Finish, a modest 7.3% Top-5 Finish, 20.1% Top-10 Finish and a 0.9% shot to surpass the 60% percentile.
  • Combo 3 (Jackson/Agholor/Andrews): While budget-friendly, it comes with a 0.2% Top Finish, 5.3% Top-5 Finish, 16.3% Top-10 Finish and a minimal 0.5% chance to clear the 60% percentile.

Combo 1: Balanced and Powerful

This ensemble, while pricier, dominates in nearly all categories. It's the premium pick for those who prioritize top-notch outcomes and are OK with a higher spend.

Combo 2: A Close Second with Savings

Striking a balance between cost and anticipated returns, this combo provides a respectable potential without stretching the budget.

Combo 3: The Economical Choice

As the most pocket-friendly combo, its performance indicators trail slightly behind Combo 2. A prudent option for those on a tighter budget, looking for a fair shot at decent results.

It’s worth saying that the medians for the Ravens are considerably lower than those for the Eagles, so if you have the choice, there’s a clear winner. However, fewer people will opt into a double stack with Jackson, which helps you build in relative value. The stack pieces are also cheaper in general, which keeps the value rates in check.

Value option: Houston Texans

Facts:

  • After starting the year with a pass-heavy game, the Texans have been Balanced or Run Heavy in every game since, with a season-low dropback rate of 48% in week 8.
  • While C.J. Stroud has shown some weaknesses in recent weeks, he still has great baselines, with a YPA of 7.59 (fourth-best in the league, tied with Jalen Hurts) as well as a strong market share of the inside-the-five rushing attempts at 14.29% (Josh Allen is at 16.67%).
  • The Texans don’t have a true WR1, but Nico Collins does have strong utilization, with a role very similar to Mike Evans (78% routes, 24% TPPR, aDOT of 12.35, 23% target share).

Stack info (DraftKings)

Texans stacks

Salary and projections:

  • Combo 1 (Stroud/Collins/Dell): Priced at the pinnacle of the list at $17,300, it offers a Median score of 45.9, translating to an impressive value for the spend.
  • Combo 2 (Stroud/Collins/Schultz): Tagged at $16,200, it delivers a Median score of 42.4, providing solid value for a slightly lower investment.
  • Combo 3 (Stroud/Dell/Schultz): The ultimate value buy at $15,700, it still manages to present a commendable Median score of 40.9, ensuring your dollar stretches further.

Upon scrutiny, Combo 1 provides the highest raw performance, but when considering cost-effectiveness, Combo 3 emerges as a stellar choice, bringing a strong Median score for a reduced price.

Finish percentiles

  • Combo 1 (Stroud/Collins/Dell): Dominates with an 8.2% Top Finish, a notable 33.6% Top-5 Finish, a whopping 53.7% Top-10 Finish and an outstanding 10.4% chance to clear the 60% percentile.
  • Combo 2 (Stroud/Collins/Schultz): Steps up with a 3.8% Top Finish, a respectable 21.0% Top-5 Finish, a 39.6% Top-10 Finish and a 5.3% probability to exceed the 60% percentile.
  • Combo 3 (Stroud/Dell/Schultz): Though priced lowest, it puts forth a 2.3% Top Finish, an admirable 18.2% Top-5 Finish, a 35.0% Top-10 Finish and a 3.6% shot to surpass the 60% percentile.

Combo 1: Top-Tier Performance with Value

Not only does this combination lead in most metrics, but it also ensures that each dollar is well-invested, granting top results.

Combo 2: Competitive Output with Savings

Offering competitive potential at a reduced price, this combination is great for those who aim for balanced performance without straining the wallet.

Combo 3: Ultimate Value Proposition

An optimal choice for those who emphasize value for money. While the price is lower, the performance metrics ensure you’re not compromising too heavily.

It's evident that different combinations can yield varied results, but by honing in on the best value for the price, you can optimize your fantasy lineup to maximize returns on your investment. Last week we put a focus on the Panthers as a value option, so this week, we can focus on the other rookie QB and try to pair him with higher upside options than Carolina could provide.