High-Value Facts & Stacks. Best Wild Card Weekend NFL DFS Stacks

Welcome to High-Value Facts and Stacks!

In this piece, I’ll outline three high-value stacks for DFS and provide some important stats that separate them from the rest of the pack.

Typically, the goal here will be to discuss one popular option, one less popular option, and one value option. This way, you can find the right stack to focus on for a wide array of situations!

All images and model data for both DraftKings and FanDuel are sourced from Paydirtdfs.com, with utilization and team-based data from the Utilization Tools here at Fantasy Life.

Contrarian option: Los Angeles Rams

Facts:

• While Matthew Stafford only averaged 16.6 fantasy points per game, he had a strong floor with no games under 10 fantasy points while exposing the ceiling of Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp and propelling them to 25+ fantasy points multiple times this season.
• The Rams finished the regular season averaging 23.76 points per game, with 4.47 scoring drives per game and 24% of their drives ending in touchdowns.
• In the second half of the season, the Rams averaged nine more points per game while dropping their dropback rate from 62% to 55%, which shows a drastic jump in efficiency from the offense as a whole.

Stack info (DraftKings)

Salary and projections:

• Combo 1 (Stafford/Nacua/Kupp): This combination is the most expensive at $21,200, but it justifies its price with the highest Median score of 48.13. This suggests confidence in a strong performance from this trio.
• Combo 2 (Stafford/Nacua/Higbee): With a lower salary of $17,100, the Median score drops slightly to 40.86. The cost reduction comes with a decrease in expected performance, providing a value option.
• Combo 3 (Stafford/Kupp/Higbee): Replacing Nacua with Kupp from Stack 2 results in a Median score of 38.89, making it slightly more expensive with less expected fantasy production.

Dec 31, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) throws the ball during the first half against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Top Finish and High Scoring Potential

• Combo 1 (Stafford/Nacua/Kupp):
  • Top Finish: Leads with an 11.2% chance, indicating strong potential to finish at the top.
  • 60+ Potential: At 17.4%, it has the highest chance among the three to exceed the 60+ scoring mark, highlighting its high-performance ceiling.
• Combo 2 (Stafford/Nacua/Higbee):
  • Top Finish: Has a 1.9% chance, significantly lower than Combo 1, which may reflect the impact of Higbee's inclusion over Kupp in the WR2/TE position.
  • 60+ Potential: At 3.0%, the probability of surpassing the 60+ threshold is lower than Combo 1. However, it’s still a possibility.
• Combo 3 (Stafford/Kupp/Higbee):
  • Top Finish: Offers the lowest probability at 0.7%, showing a much less likely chance to achieve the highest rank.
  • 60+ Potential: At 1.8%, it indicates that while this combination is budget-conscious, it carries a significantly reduced expectation for high-scoring outcomes.

Combo 1: This is the premium selection for those aiming for the highest average performance, as indicated by its top Median score and the best odds for a Top Finish. It's suited for players ready to invest more in their stack.

Combo 2: Provides a value proposition with a slightly reduced Median score and a much lower chance for a Top Finish while maintaining a modest likelihood for high-scoring games. It could be a strategic pick for those looking to allocate budget across other lineup spots.

Combo 3: It offers the lowest Median score and probabilities for a Top Finish and 60+ scoring, making it a riskier option. However, stacking the Rams without Nakua should result in reduced ownership and could vault you to the top of the leaderboard in certain game scripts.

While the Lions started out as a strong defense, it was primarily based on an early season schedule and has since been a spot to attack. On the season, they have allowed 11.3 yards per attempt while giving up 28 passing TDs. With the strong Rams passing attack, this is a prime spot to focus on with relatively low ownership.

Popular Option: Dallas Cowboys

Facts:

• While the Cowboys have cooled off relative to certain weeks of the year, they maintained the highest points per game average in the league at 29.9. They also had the highest-scoring defense and most field goal drives, which takes away from the strength of their offense.
• Even though McCarthy talked a lot about running the football in the preseason, Dak Prescott finished with the third-most dropbacks in the league at 661 while holding a 69.5% completion percentage.
• With a team total of 29, the Cowboys have the highest implied touchdown rate on the main slate and hold two of the top-five overall median expectations for QB+2 stacks.

Stack info (DraftKings)

Salary and projections:

• Combo 1 (Prescott/Lamb/Ferguson): With the highest salary of $21,300, this lineup offers a robust Median score of 55.03. Its Ceiling of 68.79 also suggests a high potential for peak performance on any given game day.
• Combo 2 (Prescott/Lamb/Cooks): Replacing Ferguson with Cooks results in a slightly lower Median score of 52.78. Not only does Ferguson have better Median and Ceiling projections, but he also fills the much trickier TE spot in the lineup.
• Combo 3 (Prescott/Cooks/Ferguson): This is the most budget-friendly combination at $17,200, presenting a Median score of 40.55 and a Ceiling of 50.69. While the expected performance dips, the lower salary could allow for strategic allocation elsewhere in your lineup.

This game could be a more sneaky shootout, with the Cowboys having one of the most efficient passing attacks in the league with a true alpha WR in CeeDee Lamb, while the Packers are surging at the right time and appear to be finally healthy. It’s also worth noting that the weather issues for the Steelers/Bills render that game mostly useless from a GPP stacking perspective, making the GB/DAL pass-catchers much more valuable.

Dec 30, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (88) celebrates in front of Detroit Lions linebacker Alex Anzalone (34) during the second half at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Top Finish and High-Scoring Potential

• Combo 1 (Prescott/Lamb/Ferguson):
  • Top Finish: Combo 1 has an impressive 30.6% chance, indicating a high likelihood of finishing at the top.
  • Ceiling: The highest among the three combinations at 68.79, suggesting that when this trio hits its peak, it could lead to exceptional scoring.
• Combo 2 (Prescott/Lamb/Cooks):
  • Top Finish: At 20.2%, this combination still maintains a solid chance of finishing at the top, albeit lower than Combo 1.
  • Ceiling: Slightly lower than Combo 1 but still the second-highest on the slate at 65.98. The potential for a top-scoring game is substantial.
• Combo 3 (Prescott/Cooks/Ferguson):
  • Top Finish: The probability drops to 2.4%, showing a much lower expectation for achieving the highest rank.
  • Ceiling: The lowest of the three at 50.69, meaning that while this combo is more affordable, its chances of hitting maximum scores are also lower.

Combo 1: Top Medians and Supreme Finishing Percentiles

This is the premium choice for those aiming for the highest average and peak performance. It's best suited for players willing to spend more on a high-potential stack.

Combo 2: Plenty of Upside and Lower Ownership

This stack has similar projections to Combo 1, with a slightly lower probability for a Top Finish. The high Ceiling indicates that this combination retains significant upside potential, making it a strong contender for those looking to capture high-scoring games.

Combo 3: Lowest Upside and Cost

It presents the most cost-effective option with a lower Median and Ceiling, which could appeal to those looking for savings in salary to distribute funds to other areas of their lineup. The lower Top Finish chance suggests it's a more speculative choice, but one that could still yield a respectable performance.

Value option: Detroit Lions

Facts:

• While he had a relatively quiet year, Jared Goff was sneakily one of the most efficient QBs in the league, with a YPA of 7.55 (just behind Stafford at 7.61 and above Josh Allen at 7.44) while finishing with 305 fantasy points.
• Amon-Ra St.Brown had an incredible year and was one of the most consistent WRs in fantasy, with 1,539 total yards and 20.8 fantasy points per game as the Lions’ unquestioned No. 1 receiver.
• The news for Sam LaPorta is vital, as he finished the year as the TE1 in total fantasy points at 235.3 with an air yards per route run of 1.72. If he is out of this game, it’s a massive boost to Josh Reynolds, who would assume the possession receiver role.

Stack info (DraftKings)

Salary and projections:

• Combo 1 (Goff/Brown/Reynolds): At a salary of $18,000, this lineup presents a solid Median score of 48.12. It indicates a strong expected performance, which aligns with the moderate salary point.
• Combo 2 (Goff/Brown/LaPorta): This combination is priced higher at $20,000, offering a slightly lower Median score of 47.52. The incremental salary increase comes with a slight bump to the Ceiling while filling the TE spot.
• Combo 3 (Goff/Reynolds/LaPorta): The most affordable at $16,000, the Median score drops to 35.45, reflecting the lower cost.

Lions coach Dan Campbell celebrates a touchdown against the Cowboys with tight end Sam LaPorta during the second half of the Lions' 20-19 loss at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas on Saturday, Dec. 30, 2023.

Finish percentiles:

• Combo 1 (Goff/Brown/Reynolds):
  • Top-5 Finish: Has a 52.2% chance, suggesting that it is likely to rank among the top-performing stacks on the slate.
  • 3x Return: At 28.3%, this combo offers a high probability of tripling the investment.
• Combo 2 (Goff/Brown/LaPorta):
  • Top-5 Finish: Very similar at 52.8%, which slightly edges out Combo 1, even with a similar Median score.
  • 3x Return: Even though the peak ceiling is slightly higher, the 3x chance decreases to 13.1%. That suggests that while providing plenty of upside, it’s not nearly as consistent as Combo 1.
• Combo 3 (Goff/Reynolds/LaPorta):
  • Top-5 Finish: The likelihood significantly drops to 7.7%, the lowest among the three.
  • 3x Return: At 5.3%, it has the lowest potential for a high return, reflecting the lower expected scoring output.

Combo 1: Offers a compelling balance between cost and expected performance, with the highest Median score and the best chance for a 3x return. It's the optimal choice for those willing to invest in a combination with a reliable core and high potential.

Combo 2: Despite the higher salary, it maintains a similar probability for a Top-5 Finish but with a reduced chance for a 3x return. This could be a strategic pick for those who believe in the slight scoring edge that LaPorta might provide over Reynolds.

Combo 3: As the most budget-friendly option, it comes with the lowest Median and significantly reduced chances for both a Top-5 Finish and a 3x return. It's tailored for those looking for a contrarian pick or needing to save salary for the rest of their lineup.

On the other side of the Rams stacks from above, the Lions represent an even lower-owned and higher-value option. There are questions about LaPorta’s health — which shouldn’t be understated — but Reynolds would become a great value play in his absence. Either way, expect the LAR/DET game to be the best game environment and be sure to have exposure to either side.