Player props are becoming an increasingly popular market, and Sleeper Fantasy is one of the newest platforms to get in on the fun.

You may have heard of Sleeper previously – you might even play in a fantasy league hosted by Sleeper – but did you know that they also offer over/under contests? The format is simple: pick your players, pick the category, and choose whether or not they’ll go over or under the listed number. The more picks you add to your card, the bigger the potential payout.

For more information on Sleeper over/under contests, make sure to check out our review. You can even grab a promo code to match a first-time deposit of up to $100.

Sleeper

Let’s dive into five of my favorite selections for Sleeper over/under contests during the NFL Conference Championship Round.

Also, you can find all of my picks and plays on Fantasy Life's Game Hub!

Kadarius Toney Under 35.5 Receiving Yards

Toney is a pretty polarizing player. The Chiefs acquired him from the Giants before the trade deadline and he finished with 17 targets, 14 receptions, and 171 receiving yards after seven games in Kansas City during the regular season. However, he was busy last week, with his seven targets trailing only Travis Kelce’s ridiculous 17. In fact, Toney was the only player on the Chiefs outside of Kelce to record more than two targets.

Still, that stands as a clear outlier. Toney is not on the field very often, posting just a 29% snap share last week versus the Jaguars. He also had a subpar 30% route participation, but he was targeted on a ridiculous 50% of his routes run. Toney is the type of player who will be targeted frequently when on the field, but 50% is clearly unsustainable. He was at 26% during the regular season, so he received roughly twice as many targets as expected.

Even with an inflated target share, Toney still finished with just 36 receiving yards last week. He’s used primarily around the line of scrimmage – his average depth of target (aDOT) was just 0.3 yards last week – so he needs to do most of his work after the catch. Add it all up and this is the perfect opportunity to sell high on Toney.

Trenton Irwin Under 7.5 Receiving Yards

Irwin has emerged as a bit player for the Bengals this season. He’s their No. 4 receiver, which means he plays around 20% of the team’s snaps most weeks. That number was a bit higher than usual last week, and Irwin racked up a 24% route participation against the Bills. He received two targets and caught one of them for 13 yards.

Irwin has averaged 15.4 yards per reception this season, so he will likely hit the over on 7.5 yards if he catches a pass. However, that is far from a guarantee. Irwin was shut out two weeks ago versus the Ravens, and he’s pretty far down the team’s pecking order.

Additionally, the Bengals’ offensive line issues could play a huge factor in this game. They are expected to get Ted Karras back after missing last week’s matchup with the Bills, but Alex Cappa and Jonah Williams are not expected to play. La’El Collins is also still on Injured Reserve, so the team will be down three starters in pass protection. That wasn’t a big deal facing the Bills, but Buffalo has been a subpar pass-rushing team since the injury to Von Miller. The Chiefs are third in the league in adjusted sack rate, so they are better prepared to take advantage of that weakness.

If the Chiefs can pressure Joe Burrow, it will have a negative impact on all of the team’s pass catchers. That means Irwin could be looking at a donut for the second time in three weeks.

Brock Purdy Under 234.5 Passing + Rushing Yards

Purdy will be attempting to make history on Sunday. No other rookie quarterback has ever led his team to the Super Bowl, let alone won it, and Purdy is just one win away from accomplishing that feat.

It’s been a meteoric rise to stardom for “Mr. Irrelevant,” who started the year as the No. 3 quarterback on the 49ers’ depth chart. However, injuries to Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo thrust him into the spotlight and he’s taken full advantage. He’s yet to suffer defeat as a starting quarterback, and he’s averaged just under 235 passing yards per game in his seven starts.

However, Purdy came back to reality a bit last week against the Cowboys. It was his first real test after feasting on a string of cupcake matchups, and he finished with just 214 passing yards and eight rushing yards. Overall, his average of 7.38 adjusted yards per attempt was his worst mark since taking over for Garoppolo.

Things aren’t going to get any easier for Purdy this Sunday. The Eagles have been one of the best defensive teams in the league this season, particularly against the pass. They’re first in pass defense DVOA, and they limited the Giants to 109 net passing yards last week. Purdy still has tons of supporting talent on offense, but expectations should be low for the seventh-round rookie.

Jan 14, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) loos to throw the football in the fourth quarter of a wild card game against the Seattle Seahawks at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Kenneth Gainwell Over 11.5 Rushing Yards

The Eagles continue to employ a three-man committee at running back. Miles Sanders is the starter, but Gainwell and Boston Scott both see plenty of work. Sanders played on just 40% of the team’s snaps last week, while Gainwell was slightly behind at 37%.

Gainwell is typically the pass-catching specialist out of the Eagles’ backfield, but his rushing workload has increased in recent weeks. He had five carries for 35 yards in his final game of the regular season, and he had 12 carries last week versus the Giants. Part of that was due to the game becoming a blowout, but Gainwell should continue to see a solid handful of carries most weeks.

The 49ers boast one of the toughest run defenses in the league, but Gainwell has averaged 4.5 yards per attempt this season. That gives him the potential to hit the over on less than five carries.

DeVonta Smith Under 15.7 Fantasy Points

The Eagles have also utilized a relatively balanced attack in the passing game this season. A.J. Brown, Smith, and Dallas Goedert have all served as the team’s top option in certain weeks, and Smith got to play the starring role in their first playoff contest. He had a perfect 100% route participation, and he led the team with 43% of their targets and 52% of their air yards.

Those are outstanding numbers, but it would be shocking if he duplicates them against the 49ers. Smith has seen a 26.9% target share and 30.2% air yard share for the year, so his marks versus the Giants are clear outliers. Smith still figures to be very involved this week, but don’t expect him to be the clear-cut alpha.

Additionally, the matchup with the 49ers is as tough as it gets. The 49ers defense ranked first in the league in yards and points per game allowed, and they limited a strong Cowboys’ offense to just 12 points last week. If Smith isn’t able to find the end zone, it’s going to be tough for him to hit the over on 15.7 fantasy points.

If you play Pick'em on Underdog Fantasy, check out my picks here.