Player props are becoming an increasingly popular market, and Sleeper Fantasy is one of the newest platforms to get in on the fun.
You may have heard of Sleeper previously – you might even play in a fantasy league hosted by Sleeper – but did you know that they also offer over/under contests? The format is simple: pick your players, pick the category, and choose whether or not they’ll go over or under the listed number. The more picks you add to your card, the bigger the potential payout.
For more information on Sleeper over/under contests, make sure to check out our review. You can even grab a promo code to match a first-time deposit up to $100.
Let’s dive into five of my favorite selections for Sleeper over/under contests in NFL Week 13.
Also, you can find all of my picks and plays on Fantasy Life's Game Hub!
Isiah Pacheco Over 63.5 rushing yards
Pacheco has officially taken over as the Chiefs’ top running back. He started the year splitting carries with Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon, but Pacheco moved into the starting lineup in Week 7. He led the team with 16 carries in Week 8 and hasn’t looked back since. Pacheco has racked up at least 14 rushing attempts in each of his past four games, and he’s finished with at least 66 rushing yards in each of them.
The Chiefs’ offense has been a juggernaut once again this season, ranking first in the league in both points and yards per game. Patrick Mahomes has taken over as the MVP frontrunner, and they are going to cruise to the best record in a weaker-than-expected AFC West.
The Chiefs’ offense is going to get a stiff test against the Broncos this week, who rank seventh in Football Outsiders defensive DVOA. That said, the Broncos have been much weaker against the run than the pass. They rank just 17th in rush defense DVOA, so opposing running backs can have some success against them. Five of the Broncos’ past six opponents have racked up at least 103 rushing yards, and Pacheco should get the most opportunities against this unit. I like his chances of making it five straight games with at least 65 rushing yards.
Jalen Hurts Over 18.5 completions
Hurts has had a phenomenal season for the Eagles. There was some rumbling during the offseason that the team was looking to replace him, but sticking with him has clearly been the correct decision. He’s led the team to an 11-1 record, and his dual-threat skill set is a big reason why.
Hurts is known more for his rushing ability than his precision passing, but he’s proven capable of taking advantage of good matchups with his arm. He shredded the Titans’ poor pass defense last week for 29 completions, 380 yards, and three touchdowns while attempting just five carries.
The Giants represent another matchup for Hurts to display his passing prowess. They’ve been weak against the run and the pass this season, but their secondary has been decimated of late. They’re going to be without top cornerback Adoree’ Jackson this week, while Aaron Robinson and Xavier McKinney are both on Injured Reserve. The Giants have surrendered at least 246 passing yards in three of their past four games, so Hurts should be able to keep the good times rolling.
Greg Dulcich Over 40.5 receiving yards
Calling the Broncos’ offense a dumpster fire is an insult to dumpster fires. Their performance has been worse than my attendance at 8 am French class during my freshman year of college. They rank dead last in points per game and 27th in yards, and the fact that their defense is so dominant only makes matters worse. With even an average offense this season, the Broncos would be right in the thick of the playoff race. Instead, they’re googling how much money it’s going to cost them if they cut Russell Wilson.
However, they do have a glimmer of hope this week vs. the Chiefs. Kansas City’s defense has been nearly as bad as the Broncos’ offense, specifically against the pass. They’re just 26th in pass defense DVOA, and they’ve surrendered some big games to opposing quarterbacks and pass-catchers.
The Broncos are going to be without their top receiver in Courtland Sutton, which means that Dulcich is going to have to help pick up the slack. He’s already been pretty busy since joining the lineup in Week 6, posting a 17.3% target share. That’s the ninth-highest mark at the tight end position.
Dulcich erupted for a 35% target share last week vs. the Ravens, and he also led the team in air yards. He responded with six catches for 85 yards, and while Jerry Jeudy figures to take on a larger role after playing limited snaps last week, that still leaves plenty of room for Dulcich.
D’Andre Swift Over 35.5 rushing yards
Is Swift finally healthy? For most of the year, it’s been harder to find Swift on the field than to find a ticket to a Taylor Swift concert. He has just a 32% snap share for the year, and he’s handled just 19% of the team’s rushing attempts. He’s been used primarily as a pass-catcher out of the backfield, which has made him a massive fantasy disappointment.
However, Swift finally returned to prominence last week vs. the Jaguars. He led the team with 14 carries, and he responded with 62 rushing yards. It’s easy to write that performance off due to the game script – the Lions led by at least four points for 90% of the snaps – but Swift’s usage during the first half was equally promising. He had a 49% snap share before halftime, so it’s possible that Swift has finally turned the corner.
If that’s the case, he’s poised for a big performance vs. the Vikings. Their defense has been exploitable all year, ranking 31st in the league in yards per game allowed. Most of their struggles have been against the pass, but they’re not exactly stout against the run, either. Opponents have averaged 4.4 yards per carry against the Vikings this season, so Swift doesn’t need a massive workload to potentially return value.
Derrick Henry Over 89.5 rushing yards
Henry was essentially played off the field by the Eagles last week, who took a commanding 28-10 lead early in the third quarter. Henry is not the Titans’ primary pass-catching running back, so he took a seat to Dontrell Hilliard in the second half. As a result, he finished with just 58% of the team’s rushing attempts, which is a paltry number by his standards.
Henry’s efficiency has also waned in recent weeks. He’s averaged just 2.77 yards per attempt over his past four outings, resulting in an average of just 52 rushing yards per game. He’s been under 89.5 rushing yards in all four contests, including a game vs. the Packers where he had 28 carries.
So why back Henry in this spot? It’s all about the history. Henry has feasted on the Jaguars throughout his career, averaging 103.9 rushing yards in 11 career contests. If you remove the two games from his rookie season – before he took over as one of the biggest workhorses in the league – that number increases to 118.9. He’s had at least 25 carries in each of his past three games vs. Jacksonville, and with Treylon Burks sidelined, he should be busy again on Sunday. Maybe the Big Dog has lost some of his bite, but I’m not ready to put him down quite yet.
