Player props are becoming an increasingly popular market, and Sleeper Fantasy is one of the newest platforms to get in on the fun.
You may have heard of Sleeper previously – you might even play in a fantasy league hosted by Sleeper – but did you know that they also offer over/under contests? The format is simple: pick your players, pick the category, and choose whether or not they’ll go over or under the listed number. The more picks you add to your card, the bigger the potential payout.
For more information on Sleeper over/under contests, make sure to check out our review. You can even grab a promo code to match a first-time deposit up to $100.
Let’s dive into five of my favorite selections for Sleeper over/under contests in NFL Week 17.
Also, you can find all of my picks and plays on Fantasy Life's Game Hub!
Geno Smith Under 241.5 passing yards
Smith and the Seahawks looked like a good bet to make the postseason three weeks ago, but three straight losses have dropped their playoff odds to just 27%. They’re going to need two wins to have any chance of making the postseason, starting this week against Smith’s former team.
Geno never really got a fair shake as the Jets’ starting quarterback, and he was one of the biggest stories of the early NFL season. He engineered a Week 1 “upset” against Russell Wilson and the Broncos, and while that result isn’t as impressive in hindsight, Smith followed it up with a string of quality performances. He was ultimately rewarded with a trip to the Pro Bowl, and it’s hard to say he doesn’t deserve it.
Unfortunately, Smith has shown signs of turning back into a pumpkin. He was dreadful last week vs. a porous Chiefs’ defense, finishing with just 215 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Smith averaged 8.52 adjusted yards per attempt across his first 12 contests, but that figure has dipped to just 5.68 over his past three.
Things aren’t going to get any easier against the Jets. Like the Seahawks, the Jets have struggled recently, but their struggles have had nothing to do with their defense. They have an outstanding group of cornerbacks headlined by Sauce Gardner, so this will be an incredibly difficult test for Smith. There’s also a chance that Tyler Lockett is forced to miss his second consecutive contest, which would make this even more of a challenge.
Drake London Under 58.5 receiving yards
London was selected with the No. 8 pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, and the rookie from USC has a promising career ahead of him. He’s flashed his potential in recent weeks, racking up 32 targets, 20 catches, and 261 yards over the past three weeks. He’s had at least 70 receiving yards in each of those contests, and he draws a favorable matchup vs. the Cardinals in Week 17. Add it all up, and this number appears pretty favorable on the surface.
However, the Falcons are not the type of team that likes to air the ball out. They rank 31st in terms of pass rate over expectation, so they want to lean on the running game as much as possible. That hasn’t really been an option in recent weeks since the Falcons have turned in four straight losses.
Atlanta is favored at home this week vs. the Cardinals, making this an ideal spot for the Falcons to go back to their roots. The Cardinals rank 29th in Football Outsiders run defense DVOA, so the Falcons should be able to run the ball down their throats.
Prior to hitting the over in three straight games, London had racked up 54 receiving yards or fewer in 10 straight contests. This is the perfect time to sell high.
Jamaal Williams Over 49.5 rushing yards
The Lions suffered a back breaking loss against the Panthers last week, dropping their playoff odds to just 24%. They’re not quite dead yet, but they’re going to need two wins and some help over the final two games of the year.
Fortunately, the Lions do catch a break against the Bears this week. Justin Fields has given the Bears’ fans some hope recently, but that hope hasn’t exactly translated into wins. They’ve lost eight straight games, and their defense has been the biggest reason why.
The Bears have been giving up rushing yards in bunches of late. They’ve surrendered at least 112 rushing yards in five straight games, and they’ve allowed at least 149 in four of them. That includes 254 yards to the Bills last week, who are not exactly known for their running game.
The Lions managed just 95 rushing yards in their win over Chicago, but that was still enough for Williams to get to 59 yards. D’Andre Swift has seen an uptick in playing time of late, but Williams remains the man from a rushing perspective. He played on just 24% of the snaps last week, but that didn’t stop him from leading the team with 44% of the carries.
The game script should be more favorable for Williams this week after the team trailed throughout against the Panthers. The Lions are listed as six-point home favorites, so there should be more work available for Williams.
Dalvin Cook Over 71.5 rushing yards
No one expected this matchup between the Vikings and Packers to mean much a few weeks ago. There was a chance that the Vikings would be fighting for the top seed in the NFC, but the Packers making a run for the postseason seemed impossible. However, they’ve rattled off three straight wins, putting them very much in contention for a Wild Card spot.
The Packers have played significantly better on offense after a slow start to the year. They’re up to 10th in offensive DVOA, which actually puts them ahead of the Vikings. However, the Packers remain very exploitable on defense. Their run defense specifically has been a disaster, ranking dead last in DVOA.
That sets up an excellent spot for Cook. Justin Jefferson has deservedly gotten most of the attention for the Vikings this season, but Cook has turned in another quality season. His yards per carry are down slightly compared to previous years, but his average of 4.5 yards per attempt is still very respectable.
Cook has averaged 73.9 rushing yards per game this season, and he can definitely exceed that figure against the Packers’ leaky run defense. He’s already done it once this season, compiling 90 rushing yards against the Packers back in Week 1.
D’Onta Foreman Over 60.5 rushing yards
Steve Wilks has done an incredible job of turning things around in Carolina. They remain underdogs to win the NFC South, but a win against the Buccaneers in Week 17 puts them in control of their own destiny.
Part of the reason for their turnaround has been a dominant run game. In their five wins under Wilks, the team has tallied 173, 232, 185, 223, and 320 rushing yards. That includes their first matchup vs. the Buccaneers this season, where Foreman torched them for 118 yards on 15 carries.
Overall, the Panthers have run the ball on 58.33% of their plays over the past three weeks, including more than 66% of their plays last week. They use a committee approach at running back, with Foreman, Chuba Hubbard, and Raheem Blackshear all factoring into the equation, but Foreman is the clear top runner. He’s had at least 74 yards in six of his past nine games, so this number feels too low.
As long as you think the Panthers can keep this game competitive – and nothing the Bucs have done make me think otherwise – expect them to continue to lean on Foreman as much as possible.
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