Underdog Fantasy is one of the fastest-growing companies in the industry. They’re known for their massive best ball tournaments and their snake draft format, but did you know they also offer pick ‘em contests? They work very similarly to traditional prop bets, with players having specific lines set in a variety of categories. You can then pair up to five of these selections together for up to a 20x return on your investment.
If you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, make sure to take advantage of a first-time deposit match of up to $100. Just sign up using our link or by entering promo code LIFE.
Let’s dive into five of my favorite selections for Underdog contests in Week 18.
Patrick Mahomes Over 325.5 passing yards
Who’s ready for a little stroll down narrative street? Mahomes has an outside shot at breaking the record for most passing yards in a season, entering the final week trailing Peyton Manning’s mark by 429 yards. Mahomes has five games with at least 430 yards in his career, and the Chiefs need a win to lock up the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
That creates a perfect storm for Mahomes against the Raiders, who have been one of his favorite marks throughout his career. He’s averaged more than 315 passing yards per game against the Raiders and he has two performances with at least 406 yards in their last seven matchups.
If Mahomes is interested in going for this award, the Raiders won’t be able to do much to stop him. They rank dead last in pass defense DVOA, and they’re allowing the fourth-most passing yards per game. That number would be even worse if not for a recent stretch against subpar quarterbacks like Baker Mayfield, Mac Jones, and Kenny Pickett.
Ultimately, it’s hard for me to pass up on a motivated Mahomes in a potential smash spot.
Trevor Lawrence Over 35.5 passing attempts
The Jaguars are another team with everything to play for in Week 18. A loss doesn’t guarantee that they’ll miss the playoffs, but a win clinches them the AFC South. They enter this contest with significantly more momentum than the Titans and they currently have an 80% chance of making the postseason.
Lawrence has been the big reason for the Jags’ turnaround. He has blossomed into an outstanding NFL quarterback. He’s led the team to a 6-2 record over their past eight games, averaging 257.6 yards per game with 16 total touchdowns and two interceptions.
He had arguably the best game of his career in his first meeting with the Titans. He torched them for 368 yards and three touchdown passes on 42 attempts, leading the team to a 36-22 victory.
Lawrence’s performance doesn’t stand out as an outlier against the Titans. They have been a massive pass funnel this season, ranking second in rush defense DVOA but 28th against the pass. As a result, opposing QBs have averaged 39.9 pass attempts against the Titans this season, which is the top mark in the league by a wide margin.
That sets up a perfect scenario for Lawrence to have a field day on Saturday. He already has six games with at least 40 pass attempts this season and I see no reason why that number can’t get to seven.
Kenny Pickett Over 194.5 passing yards
I don’t know if anyone has been better suited for a nickname than Kenny “Ice” Pickett. I have no clue if that’s his official nickname yet, but it 100% needs to be. It’s perfect. Not only does it fit with his name – get it, Ice Pick-ett? – but he’s also displayed ice water in his veins at the end of games recently. He’s led the team on game-winning touchdown drives in back-to-back games, officially keeping his team’s slim playoff hopes alive.
Pickett hasn’t exactly set the world on fire as a starter, but he has shown significant improvement in recent weeks. He’s averaged 207.8 passing yards over his past six full contests, and he’s had at least 197 passing yards in four of them.
He failed to clear that threshold last week against the Ravens, but they possess a solid pass defense. The Browns aren’t bad either, but they could be without some key players on defense. Jadeveon Clowney was sent home after making some disparaging comments about the Browns’ coaching staff and Denzel Ward is questionable. With nothing to play for this season, there’s no real reason to push Ward if he’s not 100%.
Pickett didn’t play in the team’s first meeting with the Browns this season, but Mitch Trubisky was able to rack up 207 passing yards. I don’t see much difference between Trubisky and Pickett at this point, so Pickett should be able to post similar results.
Dec 4, 2022; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett (8) throws against the Atlanta Falcons in the first quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
Tyreek Hill Over 67.5 receiving yards
This number would be comically low for Hill if the Dolphins had Tua Tagovailoa available at quarterback, but that’s not going to be the case in Week 18. Backup quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has also been ruled out, leaving Skylar Thompson as the team’s starter in a must-win contest. The Dolphins are officially eliminated from playoff contention with a loss to the Jets, while a win improves their playoff chances to 82%.
Ironically, Thompson saw his biggest workload of the season against the Jets back in Week 5. He played on 99% of the team’s offensive snaps – he hasn’t been above 38% in any other contest – and things did not go well for him. He completed just 57.58% of his passes for 166 yards and an interception, so there’s plenty of reason for skepticism with the team’s passing attack at the moment.
Still, this is Tyreek that we’re talking about. He’s capable of hitting the over on 67.5 yards with one touch. No one in football can match his deep speed, and he led the team with seven targets in his last matchup with the Jets. He caught all seven of those balls, and while the Jets did a good job of corralling him, Hill has still averaged 10.2 yards per target this season. This seems like a great opportunity to buy low on one of the most explosive players in football.
D’Andre Swift Under 24.5 receiving yards
The last game of the week is a big one, particularly for the Packers. The Lions are also still alive for the postseason, but they would need the Seahawks to lose to the Rams earlier in the day to have a shot. If that happens, the game between the Lions and Packers essentially becomes a play-in game, which would be appointment television.
Regardless of what happens in Seattle, expect Dan Campbell and his team to take this matchup extremely seriously. It’s not in Campbell’s nature to lay down, and the team has followed his lead all season long.
However, the Lions fighting hard doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll lean any heavier than usual on Swift. He’s been a bit player for the Lions after suffering injuries earlier in the year, and he played on just 35% of the team’s snaps last week. He had just a 33% route participation, and while he was targeted on 33% of his routes run, that stands out as a bit of an outlier. He’s been targeted on 26% of his routes run for the rest of the year.
The Packers also stand out as a tough matchup for Swift. They’ve struggled in the run game this season, but they have been surprisingly good at defending RBs in the pass game. They rank fifth in DVOA versus the position, so this could be a better spot for Jamaal Williams.
