Welcome back to the weekly Underdog Pick’em Plays article on Fantasy Life.

If you’re new, every week I try to put together a winning five-way Pick'em ticket using Underdog’s selection of Higher/Lower offerings. I also include some extra suggestions at the end and a list of “play to levels” and our Fantasy Life projections.

Week 12 was rough, not so much that the picks were bad, but that the outcomes were not desirable. A five-way and and three-way ticket I posted in our FREE Underdog Pick’em Tracker on Fantasy Life missed out on cashing by ONE Diontae Johnson yard. 

That’s rough. But we are still up some plenty of units there for the season and I’ll have more Week 13 plays posted there on the weekend. 

With that in mind, let’s get to the Week 13 main card.

As a reminder, you can tail these picks at Underdog Fantasy, where you can get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 with promo code LIFE below!

Brock Purdy HIGHER than 249.5 passing yards 

This should be a great matchup for Purdy to excel in. The 49ers face an Eagles secondary that has allowed the fourth-most yards passing against to opposing QBs and have allowed three of the last four QBs they have faced to pass for over 330 yards. 

We’ve also got a close game projected (3.0 point spread) and a projection on Fantasy Life that shows this as having a solid edge to the over right now. There are some small weather concerns (rain) but those are likely to be minimal and the Eagles rush defense, that is top five in success rate against the run, are likely to force the 49ers to rely more on the pass in this spot regardless.  

Overall, Purdy is having a terrific year and been an extremely efficient QB who has gone over this mark in four of his last five games making him a solid HIGHER target for Week 13.

Brandon Aiyuk HIGHER than 59.5 receiving yards 

If we’re using Purdy’s over then, naturally, we should look to one of his receivers to pair him with for some correlation in our 5-way Pick’em. While we have options on Underdog, this line on Brandon Aiyuk for Week 13 looks extremely low and certainly one that stands out to our Fantasy Life projections as well – which have him set at over 70 yards early in the week. 

The Eagles secondary has also struggled with deep route specialists like Aiyuk who are great at creating separation and earning downfield targets as a result. 

Entering this week, Aiyuk is top ten in yards before the catch and also leads the league in aDOT (for players with 50 or more targets). This puts him in a similar profile to other receivers the Eagles have faced of late like Gabe Davis (6-105) and CeeDee Lamb (11-191) who both had a field day against this unit. 

Ultimately, I like using Aiyuk’s HIGHER over Kittle’s or Samuel’s for a few reasons, but mainly because a big day for Aiyuk this year has often meant triple figures in yardage (he’s gone over 100 yards four times). And if we get that kind of result here, it would almost certainly mean our Purdy HIGHER is cashing alongside it.

Christian McCaffrey LOWER than 17.5 rush attempts 

Let’s take the 49ers stack to its natural conclusion. If we like Purdy and Aiyuk to take advantage of this weaker Eagles secondary then it’s very likely that San Francisco just may not be running as much as they normally do in this game. 

As mentioned above, the Eagles rush defense is still rather dominant and held the Bills RBs to under 3.0 yards per carry last week. Regardless of game flow, teams facing the Eagles just haven’t had success, period, on the ground and that’s led to fewer RB carries as just one RB has rushed the ball more than 17 times against them in a game – Isiah Pacheco Week 11.

Christian McCaffrey

October 8, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (23) during the first quarter against the Dallas Cowboys at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

It’s worth noting, as well, that the 49ers have started to inject Elijah Mitchell into the rotation more often, likely in an effort to reduce McCaffrey’s snaps just a little. Mitchell has taken 7, 4 and 8 carries over the last three weeks and has seen a 25%+ snap count in three of the last four games as well. 

In a game like this it’s hard to see one team having the chance to run the ball a ton and McCaffrey’s LOWER ultimately plays well in any game flow where Aiyuk and Purdy are hitting their HIGHERs.

Samaje Perine HIGHER than 16.5 receiving yards 

I put an early bet up in our Free bet tracker for Week 13 on Samaje Perine’s receiving prop and think it’s a great target here as well. 

Even though his snap count dipped a bit last week (and he only caught one pass) this is a player whom the Broncos are reliant on in hurry-up situations near the end of half and in past-friendly game scripts (down late).

He’s gone for 16 yards or more receiving in nine of 11 games to date and has seen a targets per route run rate of at least 25% in four of his last five games well. 

Samaje Perine

Given the efficiency of the Texans offense and fact the Broncos are +3.5 underdogs this week, there is a far greater likelihood we see Perine get more involved as a pass-catcher in this contest.

The higher on his 15.5 receiving total grades out as a strong edge in our site projections as well where he’s predicted at 21.1 receiving yards for the week. 

Bryce Young HIGHER 200.5 passing yards 

Given all that has transpired over the last week or so in Carolina it seems like a pretty big certainty that the new coaching staff has spent the better part of the week figuring out how to take Bryce Young’s life a little easier. 

Maybe that can’t all be solved in a week but with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on tap here’s guessing that it will at least lead to a little better output for Young in Week 13, that sees him hit his HIGHER on this sub-200 total. 

The Buccaneers are a clear funnel to the pass defense who have allowed the third most passing yards against this season and they may also be without their best cornerback in Week 13 in Jamal Dean who missed practice Thursday and Friday. That alone makes Young an appealing HIGHER target and the fact our projections have him bumped over 200 yards this week also helps the argument. 

Ultimately, with the new coaching staff in place I think Young’s output likely improves a little the end of the year so buying low on these kinds of totals now, makes sense as well. Here’s hoping the theory holds, as he’s the final piece in our 5-way Pick’em for Week 13.

You can combine these five selections for a 20x payout on your Pick'em entry and claim your 100% deposit match by clicking below!

5-Pick Pick'em
Underdog Pickem