High Value Facts & Stacks. Best Week 1 NFL DFS Stacks.
Welcome to High Value Facts and Stacks!
I’ll be outlining three high-value stacks for DFS and providing some important stats that separate them from the rest of the pack.
Typically, the goal here will be to discuss one popular option, one less popular option, and one value option.
This way, you can find the right stack to focus on for many situations. All images and model data for both DraftKings and FanDuel are sourced from Paydirtdfs.com.
Popular option: Miami Dolphins
Facts
- Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle had a combined average of 16.35 targets per game last year, while both eclipsed an elite mark of .20 targets per route run (.346 and .216, respectively)
- In 2022, Tua Tagovailoa led the league in air yards per completion with a mark of 8.8 yards, 1.3 yards higher than Josh Allen in second and 2.5 yards higher than Jalen Hurts.
- Regarding the DFS main slate, the Chargers and Dolphins have the highest over/under on the board at 51 points, nearly four points higher than any other game.
Stack info (DraftKings)
Salary and projections:
- Combo 1 (Tua/Tyreek/Waddle): The median score is 51.09 for a salary of $22,000
- Combo 2 (Tua/Tyreek/Smythe): The median score is 41.88 for a salary of $17,700
- Combo 3 (Tua/Waddle/Smythe): The median score is 39.19 for a salary of $16,600
When you look at the Median score per unit of salary, the first combo provides approximately 51.09 / 22,000 = 2.32 points per unit of salary.
Similarly, the second combo offers 2.37 points per unit, while the third combo checks in at 2.36 points per unit.
The second and third combos are marginally more "efficient" from a cost-to-median-score perspective, although the differences are minimal.
Finishing percentiles
- Combo 1 (Tua/Tyreek/Waddle): 11% Top Finish and 35% Top-5 Finish.
- Combo 2 (Tua/Tyreek/Smythe): 1% Top Finish and 8% Top-5 Finish.
- Combo 3 (Tua/Waddle/Smythe): 0% Top Finish and 4% Top-5 Finish.
Risk vs. reward analysis
High salary, high reward
The first combo is the most expensive but offers the highest upside. It could be your go-to option if you're willing to spend more for a shot at a high finish.
It is significantly more likely to achieve a Top Finish (11%) or a Top-5 Finish (35%).
Moderate salary, low reward
The second combo has a moderate salary, but its upside is much lower than the first’s.
It only has a 1% chance for a Top Finish, and its Top-5 Finish chance is also relatively low at 8%.
Low salary, lowest reward
The third combo is the least expensive but shows the least promise in high finishes.
With 0% for a Top Finish and 4% for a Top-5 Finish, this combo represents the highest risk in terms of performance but comes at the lowest cost.
Dec 25, 2022; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill (10) celebrates with wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (17) after catching the football during the second quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
Contrarian option: Baltimore Ravens
Facts
- From 2019-2021, Lamar Jackson averaged over 11 rushing attempts per game with an average yards per attempt over six yards, both by far the highest in the league at QB.
- Under Greg Roman, the Ravens ran 11 personnel at a 37% rate, while Todd Monken’s average 11-personnel rate was around 61%, which is sure to unleash a passing aspect Lamar Jackson has never had.
- In Odell Beckham Jr.’s last full season (2019), he had 1,035 receiving yards and averaged 14 yards per reception, in line with his career averages, which would lead all Ravens receivers in 2022 with at least 10 games played.
Stack info (DraftKings)
Salary and projections:
- Combo 1 (Lamar/Bateman/Andrews): The median score is 41.65 for a salary of $19,500
- Combo 2 (Lamar/Flowers/Andrews): The median score is 41.53 for a salary of $18,200
- Combo 3 (Lamar/Bateman/Flowers): The median score is 38.57 for a salary of $17,300
When you look at the median score per unit of salary, the first combo provides approximately 41.65 / 19,500 = 2.14 points per unit of salary.
Similarly, the second combo offers 2.28 points per unit, and the third combo offers 2.23 points per unit.
Finishing percentiles
- Combo 1 (Lamar/Bateman/Andrews): 0.84% Top Finish and 7.04% Top 5 Finish.
- Combo 2 (Lamar/Flowers/Andrews): 0.92% Top Finish and 8.52% Top 5 Finish.
- Combo 3 (Lamar/Bateman/Flowers): 0.44% Top Finish and 4.36% Top 5 Finish.
Risk vs. reward analysis
High salary, moderate reward
Combo 1 is the most expensive but surprisingly does not offer the highest upside.
Although it has a reasonable chance of achieving a Top-5 Finish (7.04%), its Top Finish likelihood is marginally lower (0.84%) than that of Combo 2.
Moderate salary, high reward
Combo 2 has a moderate salary but offers the highest upside. It is slightly more likely to achieve a Top Finish (0.92%) and has the best chance of a Top-5 Finish (8.52%).
It could be the optimal choice for Baltimore.
Low salary, lowest reward
Combo 3 is the least expensive, but it shows the smallest promise in high finishes.
With only 0.44% for a Top Finish and 4.36% for a Top-5 Finish, this combo represents the highest risk in terms of performance but comes at the lowest cost.
Dec 25, 2022; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill (10) celebrates with wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (17) after catching the football during the second quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
Value option: Denver Broncos
Facts
- Jerry Jeudy is questionable for this week, and without him on the field last year, Courtland Sutton averaged 77.5 receiving yards per game on 7.5 targets, making him a clear WR1 for fantasy.
- In Russell Wilson’s 2015-2020 season, he had 4000+ passing yards in four out of six years and has only had one season in his career with a QBR under 92.5.
- Should Jeudy miss the game, Marvin Mims makes for a terrific value play, as he comes into the league as a rookie after averaging 19+ yards per reception through his collegiate career.
Stack info (DraftKings)
Salary and projections:
- Combo 1 (Wilson/Sutton/Mims): The median score is 40.18 for a salary of 14,100.
- Combo 2 (Wilson/Sutton/Dulcich): The median score is 39.05 for a salary of 15,100.
- Combo 3 (Wilson/Mims/Dulcich): The median score is 38.22 for a salary of 12,900.
When you look at the median score per unit of salary, the first combo provides approximately 40.18 / 14,100 = 2.85 points per unit of salary.
The second combo offers 2.58 points per salary unit, while the third is the most efficient at 2.96.
Finishing percentiles:
- Combo 1 (Wilson/Sutton/Mims): 0.64% Top Finish and 6.04% Top-5 Finish.
- Combo 2 (Wilson/Sutton/Dulcich): 0.52% Top Finish and 4.08% Top-5 Finish.
- Combo 3 (Wilson/Mims/Dulcich): 0.24% Top Finish and 3.12% Top-5 Finish.
Risk vs. reward analysis
High salary, moderate reward
Combo 1 is the second most expensive but offers the most upside. It has a reasonable chance of achieving a Top-5 Finish (6.04%), and its Top Finish likelihood is the highest among the three combos (0.64%).
This option provides a balanced approach, offering some upside while costing slightly more than the cheapest trio.
Higher salary, lower reward
Combo 2 is the most expensive of the three, but its upside isn't the highest. It is less likely to achieve a Top Finish (0.52%) and a Top-5 Finish (4.08%) compared to Combo 1.
That means you'd be spending more but not necessarily getting the best return, giving the first combo more appeal.
Low salary, lowest reward
Combo 3 is the least expensive but shows the least promise in high finishes. With only 0.24% for a Top Finish and 3.12% for a Top-5 Finish, this combo represents the highest risk in terms of performance but comes at the lowest cost.
It could be the go-to option if you want to save on salary and are willing to accept higher risk.
