Week 9 DFS: Joe Burrow-Ja'Marr Chase Stack and Value Plays
Peter Overzet highlights the Bengals-Raiders game and especially the Joe Burrow-Ja'Marr Chase stack in his Week 9 DFS featured value plays.
When we first started handing out these awards, I mentioned that the committee could eventually grow restless and change up the categories.
And that's exactly what is happening in Week 9.
As the committee reviewed this week's Main Slate, they were stunned to learn that one game rose above the rest. The creme de la creme across the 12 games. The game to deliver those reading this column unfathomable DFS riches (not financial advice, please do your own research).
It's not the game you would expect, either.
It's not a heavyweight divisional tilt between the Dolphins/Bills, Packers/Lions, or Seahawks/Rams. It's not even a potential dome shootout between the Cowboys and Falcons.
Nope.Â
I won't string you along anymore, although I was tempted to throw it to commercial. We do, in fact, have to pay the bills around here.
Without further adieu, the envelope please…The DFS Game Of The Week is…
Bengals/Raiders.
*shocks & gasps are heard across the Dolby Theatre*
That's right. I know you might be surprised, but a DFS game Of The Week doesn't play by the same rules as an "NFL Game Of The Week." It doesn't need to be flexed to prime time. It doesn't need narrative-based storylines to rope in viewers.Â
Rather, all we need are the salary and projection dynamics to line up in a way that allows us to build a lineup that can score a shit-ton of points.
And let me tell you, this game has it all…
🏆 THE ELITE WR WHO BLOWS THE GAME UP
- WRÂ Ja'Marr Chase ($8600)
With no Tee Higgins in Week 8, Chase hauled in the second-most targets he's had all season (11) and scored a TD. His 15.9 fantasy points didn't make any headlines, but he's once again set up to feast. Higgins hasn't practiced all week, which means Chase is once again in line for a double-digit target game.
The other nice angle to this Chase play is that I don't think he's going to be exceedingly popular. My hunch is that most handbuilders will prefer to pay $200 more for CeeDee Lamb ($8800), who is coming off a boxscore chaser's dream line (17-146-2) in Week 8.Â
🏆 THE PUNT TE WHO MAKES IT ALL WORK
- TE Mike Gesicki ($3,100)
In the three games Higgins has missed this year (Week 1, Week 2, and Week 8), Gesicki has target totals of 4, 9, and 8.Â
Last week he had a PPR-friendly 7-73 line vs. the Eagles and now he gets a Raiders defense that is middling against TEs.
That's enough to make me think National Tight End Day might extend an extra week in Cincinnati.Â
From my vantage point, Gesicki is the best TE value on the slate and the perfect guy to tack on to Joe Burrow and Chase stacks.Â
🏆 THE VOMIT STACK OF THE WEEK
Oh, you thought you were escaping this week's awards without a vomit stack after that Burrow-Chase-Gesicki pump fake? Nice try. Also, put some respect on the vomit stack. Last week we unearthed the WR1 on the slate in Ladd McConkey with our Chargers vomit stack, so you're welcome.
And for those of you who don't want to attack this spot via the Bengals passing game—a reasonable concern when you consider they could have plenty of success on the ground (more on that in a sec)—there is a vomit stack that has garbage-time production written all over it:
- QB Gardner Minshew ($5,400)
- WRÂ Jakobi Meyers ($5,300)Â
- TE Brock Bowers ($6,000)Â
The thesis to this play is very simple. If this game goes according to script (Bengals are 7-point home favorites), then the Raiders are going to be chucking the ball a ton. And when they are chucking it, the ball is going to be going to one of Meyers or Bowers.Â
Per Dwain's Utilization Report: "In the three games Meyers has played without Davante Adams in the lineup, he has a 7.8 Utilization Score with a 30% target share and 37% air-yards share. It's a small sample, but historically, his comps have finished in the range of WR2 to WR3."
As for Bowers, he cooled off last week with only 5 targets, but that looks to be more of a blip on the radar as opposed to a new trend. In the three previous weeks, he earned target totals of 12, 11, and 13.Â
At a combined salary of only $16,700 on a full-point PPR site like DraftKings, it's not crazy to think these three could combine for 70+ points, even if the majority of it comes in garbage time.
🏆 THE RB GEMS/GPP PIVOTS (BROWN & MATTISON)
- RBÂ Chase Brown ($5,900) / Underdog ADP: 35.8
- RB Alexander Mattison ($5,700) / Underdog ADP: 36
One of the most important lessons in DFS is to not get overly confident (or be overly precise) with how you think points will be generated when you love a spot.
For example: Last week I really liked the Packers passing game (narrator: he shouldn't have), but I also played Josh Jacobs on one of my non-Jordan Love rosters. The Love team flopped, obviously, but Jacobs went off for the other team because I wanted to capture the Packers points in either direction.
So even though I love the aforementioned passing-game angles, it's worth asking ourselves, "What if one of these teams produce most of their points via the run game?"Â
There's a ton to like about Brown in this spot, too. He's now averaging over 60% of the carries in the past three games, pushing Zack Moss to a diminished role. And the Raiders allow the third-highest fantasy boost to opposing RBs:
With the Bengals expected to score nearly 27 points, this is a potential blow-up spot for Brown.
Mattison is a slightly tougher sell when you consider the other side of that coin (the Raiders are 7-point road underdogs), but he's been the clear lead back these past three weeks (two without Zamir White and last week with White back in the lineup). Over the past four weeks, he's averaged 20.5 opportunities (carries + targets) per game, which gives him a shockingly good 7.8 Utilization Score and paths to relevance even in negative game scripts.
Both of these plays also coincide with two downgrades Dwain noted in this week's Utilization Report for Moss and White.
If you are game-stacking, I like the idea of using Brown opposite the Raiders vomit stack or Mattison opposite the Bengals stack. I think you could also toss Brown onto a Bengals onslaught.Â
This week's edition has been salary-cap focused, but for Underdog draft-strategy angles and hidden gems, I'll be posting a strategy video on the Deposit Kingdom channel on Friday afternoon.Â
Good luck this week.