Wild Card NFL DFS Picks: Build Around Justin Herbert
Peter Overzet returns with NFL DFS picks for Super Wild Card Weekend.
I love Super Wild Card Weekend. It's truly the last great DFS slate for the season.
Divisional Round always features the best real-life football with the Top 2 seeds back in the mix, but the 6-game slate of Wild Card weekend gives us so many fun angles for building tournament teams.
Normally the picks in this space focus on DraftKings games/pricing, but I'm switching it up this week to focus on the Underdog draft games.
The Wild Card Battle Royale contest ($5 entry) has a $30,000 top prize this week and there are lots of side contests as well, including a $3 tournament called The Wildcat.
The goal of this piece is not to identify the best plays (start Puka Nacua!), but rather a handful of sleeper picks who could help differentiate your roster and position you for first place.
You'll still want to be overweight on the top players in the early rounds of drafts, but I like having at least one unique piece on each roster that I "reach for" in the last round.
With that said, here are some good scroll-down options for each position.
🏆 Herbie Fully Loaded
- QB Justin Herbert (ADP: 34.2; QB7; $6000)
If there's one thing I feel extremely confident in this weekend it's the Chargers handling a fraudulent Texans team that has limped into the playoffs.
Despite traveling to Houston for this game, the oddsmakers agree with me—Los Angeles is positioned as 3-point road favorites. The Bolts also have fairly favorable Super Bowl odds around +3000, in large part due to this winnable Round 1 matchup.
If the Chargers do take care of business, it will likely be because of Herbert, who has averaged 21.6 fantasy points over the past month.
Houston is one of the bigger pass funnels in the entire league. They are the third-stingiest team vs. opposing RBs (-1.7 boost), while giving up the 10th-biggest boost to opposing QBs (+1.8 boost) and opposing WRs (+2.9 boost).
Because Herbert is QB7 on Underdog, he will likely get drafted in less than 50% of drafts. You can stack him with any combo of his WRs, though keep an eye on the injury reports for Quentin Johnston (he missed practice on both Wednesday and Thursday). If QJ misses, Will Dissly becomes an extremely strong play.
🏆 A Broncos RB Sleeper
- RB Jaleel McLaughlin (ADP: 35.9, $4900)
I'm not going to lie. It's hard finding a strong contrarian option at RB this week. All of the best options go in the Top 30 picks in Underdog drafts, which means we have to give up a decent amount of projection to get unique.
I'll be concentrating my scrolls this week at QB, WR, and TE, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't be sprinkling in some of these thinner RB selections into our drafts.
You can certainly make a case for either of the Commanders or Steelers backs, but McLaughlin stands out to me in this dumpster-diving range.
In a must-win game vs. the Chiefs in Week 18, he led the Broncos RBs in snaps (30), rush attempts (16), and routes (12). Javonte Williams, who our guys like to clear his reception prop, has mostly been relegated to a change-of-pace, third-down back.
You can run on the Bills, too. They give up the 7th biggest boost to opposing RBs (+3.9), which is another notch in McLaughlin's belt.
There is always the risk that the Bills bulldoze the Broncos in this spot and they are forced to throw for most of the game. But if the game script remains close then McLaughlin could easily emerge as a sneaky gem.
🏆 A Cash Game Quorum
- Packers WR: Jayden Reed (ADP: 35.3, $5500)
- Packers WR: Romeo Doubs (ADP: 35.8, $5400)
- Packers WR: Dontayvion Wicks (ADP: 35.9, $4500)
Per usual, the market does not want to deal with the headache of trying to guess which Packers WR will emerge as the top option.
But this is a spot we want to fully embrace in DFS contests.
Not only do we have a matchup where the Packers will likely be forced to finally throw the ball as 4.5-point road underdogs vs. a tough Eagles run defense, but we also have a condensed target tree with Christian Watson removed from the offense.
I'll be taking stabs on all three of these guys in my Battle Royale drafts, even though they each bring upside to the table in different ways.
- Reed is the home run swing. He's been reduced to a part-time player in recent weeks, but we saw him showcase a monster ceiling vs. this same Eagles team in Week 1, when he exploded for 31 fantasy points.
- Doubs is the Mr. Clutch. He's not as sexy as the other two options, but he has a history of showing up in big spots. In last year's Wild Card round, he exploded for 151 yards and 1 TD vs. the Cowboys.
- Wicks is the titular wild card. He earns targets at an absurd clip when he's on the field, but his snap shares (and hands) have been inconsistent. He's coming off three straight games with 5+ targets and Love does seem to look for him in the end zone.
Mix and match these guys across your builds, especially if you need a bring back to the premium Eagles pieces.
🏆 Scroll At TE
- Ravens TE: Isaiah Likely (ADP: 35.3, $3200)
- Packers TE: Tucker Kraft (ADP: 35.3, $3700)
- Texans TE: Dalton Schultz (ADP: 35.3, $3600)
- Chargers TE: Will Dissly (ADP: 35.3, $3400)
- Bucs TE: Cade Otton (ADP: 35.3, $4100)
This is a funny week at the TE position.
It is simultaneously one of the worst slates for TE (zero high-end options) and also one of the best slates for tournaments (lots of sleeper gems).
Because the TEs at the top (Mark Andrews and T.J. Hockenson) don't project that much better than the rest of the options, we can scroll down to TEs with similar upside who will get drafted less than 50% of the time.
Here's a quick sales pitch on each one of these guys.
- Likely has a solid role (66% route participation and 12% target share over the past four months) and will get an added boost with Zay Flowers likely to miss. He's an awesome leverage piece on Andrews, as well.
- The case for Kraft is very similar to that of the Packers WRs we outlined above. He averaged 9.6 points per game this year and could easily spike in this spot.
- Schultz has a 15% target share over the last two games and could be relied upon in this spot. He scored a TD in last year's Wild Card matchup vs. the Browns.
- I already outlined my love for Herbert and the Chargers earlier in this piece, which means I naturally like Dissly. He could see a boost if QJ misses or is limited.
- Otton might be the best of the bunch when you factor in price and upside. He returned to a limited practice on Wednesday and is trending toward playing. If you select him and he doesn't go, you can easily swap him to one of the aforementioned TEs who will not get drafted.
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For more Battle Royale strategy, check out my show on Friday afternoon with the Badge Bros, where we'll do a full deep dive on the Wild Card DFS slate.