Week 8 Dynasty Debates: How Should We Value King Henry?
Throughout the season, Jonathan Fuller and Sam Wallace will be breaking down the latest trends across the dynasty landscape to help you stay a step ahead of your league mates—both rebuilders and those in win-now mode.
Derrick Henry, RB - Ravens
Jonathan
It turns out that putting one of the NFL's best RBs on the league's top rushing attack leads to a whole bunch of fantasy points…who could have seen that coming?
Of course, for dynasty value, we have to think about how long Henry will remain among the most valuable RBs, and at 30 years old there are legitimate concerns about the age cliff. That being said, he has shown no signs of slowing down and seems uniquely suited to defy the age concerns for a little while longer.
Henry leads the NFL in rush attempts inside the five-yard line and is tied for the most rushing TDs. There should be plenty more scoring opportunities while playing inside this high-powered Ravens offense.
Henry has no business being on a rebuilding roster, but he's the perfect piece to help put competing teams over the top, so I would be happy to trade for him. The question of how highly to value him really comes down to whether you think this will be his last great year or not. Given how efficient he has been and the fact that he is under contract with the Ravens through 2025, I'm comfortable projecting him to remain a valuable fantasy asset through next season.
Oct 21, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry (22) runs with the ball against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the second half at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images
As a result, I would be willing to trade some decent assets to get him on my roster. Ideally, that would be a 2nd round rookie pick plus a player, but I would be willing to deal a late-first-round rookie pick if I felt Henry meaningfully increased my chances of winning the league.
Sam
Father Time wins eventually…right? Right?!
I'll admit, I sold my Derrick Henry shares a couple of years ago. His age was getting up there and his lack of pass-catching (I thought) capped his upside. How foolish of me.
Yes, I might have been wrong on Henry, and I would suspect many of us were, but we have to take our lumps and move on because man, he is simply not a normal human being (and I mean that in the best possible way, if you're reading this, King Henry).
He's scored in each of his first six games this season and has nine total TDs. There's just nothing opposing defenses can do to keep him and the Ravens out of the end zone. If you have Henry on your roster, enjoy the ride. Good on you for holding that long. If you aren't competing, feel free to flip him to a team that can use his services.
However, I'll double-down on my premature decision that I made long ago…I'm not looking to buy him unless my team is well and truly stacked and it won't cost me more than a future second-round rookie pick.
I may have bailed on the King too soon, and that's okay. Sometimes we miss the boat.
Alvin Kamara, RB - Saints
Jonathan
Of these three veteran RBs, Kamara is the least impressive when you actually watch him. He's been an inefficient runner for four seasons now, but it hasn't hurt his fantasy value much thanks to his elite role in the passing game.
He's had 5+ receptions in five of seven games this season and is tied for fifth most rushing attempts inside the five-yard line. Kamara is a good bet to see all of the high-value touches in the Saints' offense, but there are going to be fewer of those than we thought after the first two games of the season.
Kamara is a solid RB1 for the rest of the season, but I'm very concerned about his outlook beyond 2024, which is why I'm not willing to value him as highly as Henry. The Saints are in salary cap hell and cutting Kamara before next season would save them a lot of money. There usually isn't a huge market for inefficient rushers heading into their age 30 seasons, so I expect Kamara to end up as a committee back somewhere else in 2025.
This makes Kamara an easy avoid for me in Dynasty as I think he won't be as good over the second half of this season, and he probably won't be the clear lead back on a team next season. I wouldn't trade him away from a championship-contending dynasty roster, but in any other situation, I would be happy to get anything of value for him before the end of this season.
Sam
Alvin Kamara will go down as one of my all-time favorite fantasy players. His run of six straight years finishing as a top-10 RB is legendary, but nothing will ever match his Week 16 performance back in 2020.
- 22 rushing attempts
- 155 rushing yards
- 6 TDs
The ultimate fantasy champion in the biggest week of the season.
However, with his glory days in the past, what's the value of a 29-year-old tailback? Well, it depends on your roster construction.
Kamara started out strong this season (as did much of the Saints' offense) before it all fell apart in Week 7. The loss of Derek Carr has dampened the passing game, and it's impacting Kamara as well. After topping four yards per carry in three of his first four games, Kamara has been under 3.1 YPC in three straight outings.
Thankfully, he's tallied 7+ targets in four straight games to help offset his lack of efficiency. Even so, the lack of a legitimate passing game will hamper Kamara on the ground if this offense becomes too one-dimensional.
I wouldn't mind taking a stab at floating out a future third or a late second-round rookie pick (at the most) for Kamara if you have a top-heavy, competing roster. His Utilization Score is still really strong and there's plenty of season left for him to be productive for your squad.
Aaron Jones, RB - Vikings
Jonathan
After the Packers cut Aaron Jones I was a little bit concerned that he might just not be the same player that had so many efficient seasons in Green Bay. Seven weeks into his tenure with the Vikings and those fears seem overblown.
Here's how Jones ranks in some key RB metrics for the 2024 season:
- 5.2 yards per carry (t-7th)
- 3.42 yards after contact per attempt (11th)
- 20 missed tackles forced (t-10th)
It's basically the same recipe we saw for his first seven seasons in the league. Jones is an efficient player who can lead a backfield but isn't a true workhorse. Inside an above-average offense, that role has tons of value. Jones has topped 100 scrimmage yards in four of six games so far this season and has been a big part of the Vikings outperforming expectations this year.
On the other hand, Jones has struggled with durability throughout his career and will turn 30 later this season, which makes him a risky bet for dynasty leagues. He only signed a one-year deal, so his future beyond this season is very uncertain. I would prefer to trade for Jones over Kamara, but they are in a similar category of players I would like to have on a contending roster but probably aren't worth what it would cost to trade for them.
Sam
As a Packer fan, it hurt watching Aaron Jones sign with the Vikings, but I understood it from an age perspective. Still, watching Jones tear it up with his new team has me wishing maybe there was a way we could've kept him in Green Bay.
Anyway, like both Henry and Kamara, what do we do with Jones over the second half of this season, and beyond?
Jones has always been efficient; he's been that way his entire career. He's never finished a season below 4.5 YPC, and he's been over 4.1 YPC in five of six games this year already.
Health is a big concern for Jones. He missed six games with an injury last year and has already been banged up this year. Whether or not he will hold up is a legitimate concern for fantasy managers and the Vikings, as all involved parties are hoping to have him healthy over the back half of the season.
I don't mind tossing out an offer for Jones similar to the Kamara offer. He'll be 30 years old later this season which isn't ideal from a dynasty perspective, but managers can squeeze a little bit more production out of him before the wheels totally fall off.