Week 1 is officially here and with kickoff nearly 48 hours away, the masses are moving away from their drafts and into in-season mode.

That said, not everybody is on the same page. There are still last-minute drafters sifting through fantasy football cheat sheets and fantasy football rankings. So, to help, I've identified my biggest last-minute changes to my fantasy football rankings for 2024.

Blake Corum's Debut Year

The Los Angeles Rams have found themselves with an exciting pair of RBs in Kyren Williams and Blake Corum this season. Williams, a former 5th-round pick from Notre Dame, has made a significant impact in his 2023 sophomore season. He rushed for an impressive 1,144 yards and 12 touchdowns in just 12 games, finishing 3rd among all non-QBs in fantasy points per game (FP/G). Williams' success is rooted in his efficiency and versatility. He led all players with 150+ carries in total and per rush expected points added (EPA). His ability to make defenders miss and his success against stacked boxes highlight his effectiveness as a runner.

Corum, the rookie addition to the Rams' backfield, brings his own set of skills to complement Williams. The 3rd-round pick is known for his exceptional vision and decision-making abilities, consistently picking out the right rushing lanes and minimizing negative plays. His quick feet and shifty lateral agility allow him to navigate tight spaces effectively.

Together, Williams and Corum form a dynamic duo that offers the Rams a potent ground game. Their complementary skills provide HC Sean McVay with versatile options to showcase his innovative mindset. McVay has a knack for maximizing player versatility, and now must strategically focus on balancing the workload between Williams and Corum since the Rams are now positioning Williams for a unique challenge – returning punts while maintaining his role as a top RB.

Williams expressed excitement about this new opportunity, viewing it as a chance to showcase his versatility and make more plays in open space. He has prior experience in this role, having returned 14 punts in college for an average of over 10 yards per return. His ability to track the ball, honed from his baseball background, should serve him well in this new role. This dual role is rare in the NFL, with only 12 players since 1941 having 200+ carries and 10+ punt returns in a season. Williams' performance in this expanded role will be closely watched as the season progresses but current trends have seen his ADP drop a full round since the news.

<a target=Kyren Williams ADP, 25 Aug - 2 Sep 2024

On the other hand, Corum’s ADP has seen a slow and steady rise with much value still yet to be had. The Rams' coaching staff envisions a different role for Corum compared to his college days.

At Michigan, he was primarily a bellcow back, averaging 20+ carries per game. However, the Rams plan to use him as a more complete RB, focusing on his abilities to catch passes and pass protect. This shift in role presents an exciting challenge for Corum, who is eager to showcase his versatility and make the most of his opportunities.

Update:

  • Corum ↑
  • Williams ↓

Noah Brown’s Acquisition

The Washington Commanders made a strategic move by signing veteran WR Noah Brown, who was recently released by the Houston Texans. This acquisition came at a crucial time, as the Commanders had just traded away Jahan Dotson. Brown's arrival provides immediate help at the WR position, showcasing the team's proactive approach to roster management.

Brown's recent performance makes him an intriguing addition to the Commanders' roster. In his last season with the Texans, he caught 33 passes for 567 yards and two touchdowns. Notably, Brown had a remarkable two-game stretch where he amassed 13 catches for 325 yards and one score, demonstrating his potential for explosive plays.

The timing of Brown's acquisition aligns with the Commanders' offseason strategy. As one of the most active teams during the offseason, they signed more than two dozen players to overhaul a roster that went 4-13 the previous year. This move further emphasizes their commitment to improving their offensive capabilities and providing rookie QB Jayden Daniels with reliable targets.

Brown excels in blocking and making tough catches in traffic. He consistently fights through physical coverage, using violent hands and a long stride to overcome defensive backs, and his ability to stay alive for his QB during extended plays adds value to the offense.

Ultimately, Dotson's departure creates an opportunity for Brown to become a focal point for Daniels in Washington's passing attack. Brown's versatility shines through his self-description as a "very viable pass option" who can also contribute in blocking and special teams. His experience playing with then-rookie QB C.J. Stroud in Houston may prove beneficial as he aims to build a connection with Daniels.

The Commanders' offense now features a diverse set of weapons, including Terry McLaurin, who has been Washington's most consistent weapon since 2019. With QB Daniels' keen instinct for accurate passes, the team's passing game could see significant improvement. Brown's arrival also supports the run game, complementing the dual-threat backfield of Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler. His arrival also likely limits immediate opportunities for rookies Luke McCaffrey and Ben Sinnott.

Update:

  • McLaurin =
  • Brown ↑
  • McCaffrey ↓
  • Sinnott ↓

A Committee for Dalvin Cook

Despite a decline in recent seasons, with his yards after contact dropping to an average of 1.6 per carry, Ezekiel Elliott is still penciled in as the Cowboys starting RB. His role, however, may evolve as the season progresses. The Cowboys are adopting a "running back by committee (RBBC)” approach, which Elliott seems to embrace, recognizing the need to preserve himself for crucial games.

His teammate, Rico Dowdle, is poised for a breakout season, potentially leading the Cowboys in rushing attempts and yards. He's demonstrated versatility as both a runner and receiver, accumulating 529 scrimmage yards and four touchdowns in his career. Dowdle's performance in training camp has been impressive, showcasing his ability to be a complete back. His motivation stems from personal factors rather than competition, stating, “I've got two kids. That's all the motivation I need.”

Now, Dalvin Cook joins the Cowboys' practice squad, bringing four-time Pro Bowl experience. Despite a challenging 2023 season, Cook believes he can contribute significantly. He acknowledges the adjustment from being the focal point in Minnesota to a shared backfield in Dallas, saying, "my years in Minnesota it was Dalvin, Dalvin, Dalvin, give him the ball. Now, just a little adjustment."  Cook's addition adds depth and competition to the RB room, potentially pushing all players to perform at their best.

With the addition of Cook and the return of Elliott, the Cowboys appear committed to adopting a more diverse and dynamic approach to their running game. Their offense, which led the NFL in scoring with an average of 29.9 points per game (PPG) in 2023, is looking to keep its potency while addressing specific areas for improvement. HC Mike McCarthy emphasizes the importance of a balanced attack, stating, "as a play caller, you want to play wide open on first, second and third down and you want it to flow." This approach aims to keep defenses guessing and prevent the formation of predictable tendencies.

The 2023 season saw varying performances from the three RBs. Cook struggled with the Jets, averaging just 3.2 yards per carry (YPC) and accumulating only 214 rushing yards in 15 games. Elliott fared slightly better with the Patriots, averaging 3.5 YPC. Dowdle, though in a limited role, showed promise with 361 yards and two touchdowns on 89 carries, averaging 4.1 YPC.

Looking at career averages, Cook's decline is clear. His yards after contact dropped from over 2 YPC to less than 2 in his final seasons with the Vikings.

Elliott's production has also dipped, with his yards after contact falling to an average of 1.6 in recent seasons.

Dowdle, with limited NFL experience, has 96 career carries for 529 scrimmage yards and four touchdowns.

In terms of efficiency, Cook posted a concerning -1.21 rushing yards over expectation per carry (RYOE/C) in 2023. Elliott showed slightly better efficiency with -0.38 RYOE/C, while Dowdle appeared as the most efficient, ranking ninth in yards created per touch and posting -0.05 RYOE/C in 2023.

The main risk lies in the Cowboys' crowded backfield and uncertainty of roles. Elliott's familiarity with the system gives him an edge, but his declining efficiency is concerning. Cook's addition complicates matters, potentially impacting Dowdle's opportunities. However, the Cowboys' strong offensive outlook could give ample scoring chances to whichever RB is handed the ball.

Update: 

  • Elliott =
  • Dowdle ↓
  • Cook ↑

Samaje Perine's Role as the New Jerick McKinnon

Samaje Perine's arrival in Kansas City draws parallels to the team's acquisition of LeSean McCoy in 2019, just before Week 1. That season, McCoy contributed 646 total yards and five touchdowns as a secondary option behind starter Damien Williams.

Perine has the potential to make a similar impact in 2024, serving as a complementary piece to Isiah Pacheco's lead role. His strengths lie in his receiving abilities out of the backfield, pass protection prowess, and power running style – attributes that could prove invaluable for the Chiefs' offensive game plan.

In 2023, Perine established himself as the Broncos' primary pass-down back, showcasing his reliability as a receiver and pass blocker in third-down situations and two-minute drills. He finished the season with 455 receiving yards, the 7th-highest total among RBs in the NFL.

Perine's efficiency as a receiving back was particularly noteworthy, as he led all NFL RBs (with a minimum of 15 catches) in yards per route run (YPPR), averaging an impressive 2.09 YPPR.

While Perine's arrival may have tempered some of the optimism surrounding Pacheco's potential for a true three-down workload, the latter is still expected to maintain a significant role in the Chiefs' offense and I’m still buying into it.

Despite Perine supposedly handling a sizable portion of the passing work, and potentially sharing goal-line duties with Carson Steele, Pacheco's fantasy value is still unlikely to fall further than that of a high-end RB2.

Update

  • Pacheco =
  • Perine ↑