Week 2 is here, and with actual data from Week 1, we can make more informed decisions when setting our fantasy lineups. Deshaun Watson, Will Levis, Bo Nix, Daniel Jones, and Bryce Young all underperformed, posting passer ratings below 53.0. On the flip side, Anthony Richardson looks like a franchise quarterback, and Sam Darnold is making a solid case for Comeback Player of the Year.
Fantasy Life's LG Showrunner, Ed Eck (check out our show on LGChannels.com!), emphasized to me earlier this year that analysts often overthink the preseason and that past fantasy production is the best predictor of future success. In many ways, he was right. Saquon Barkley and Joe Mixon are both still "that guy." Lamar Jackson, Cooper Kupp, Mike Evans, Alvin Kamara, and De'Von Achane all had stellar weeks, while Caleb Williams struggled last Sunday. Marvin Harrison Jr. was quiet too, with three targets, one reception, and four total yards. Malik Nabers had a solid performance, but poor quarterback play from Daniel Jones kept him from having a breakout game. Overall, rookies underperformed, and highly touted veterans came to play.
Still, there were some Week 1 surprises. Xavier Worthy looks like a viable WR2 going forward, and Jayden Daniels' feet earned him a top 5 Week 1 QB ranking in fantasy. Ja'Marr Chase was, in fact, active and had six catches on six targets for 62 yards, but the Bengals' offense struggled to find its rhythm. In Christian McCaffrey's absence, which may extend into Week 2, Jordan Mason stepped up with 152 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Meanwhile, J.K. Dobbins significantly outperformed Gus Edwards; the same can be said for Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews.
This week, I'll discuss Week 1 takeaways, overreactions, and strategic adjustments with the Fantasy Life team.
1. What changes are you making to your starting lineup after Week 1?
Coach Gene Clemons (check out “The Betting Life Show” on Saturdays at 10 a.m. ET): The only significant changes to your lineup should come in a Guillotine League where you barely squeaked by with a victory. If you're in a season-long league, now is not the time to panic. Remember that if your player is on a team getting blown out, that could work in your favor. DeShaun Watson had a bad fantasy day because his teammates let him down. His two interceptions were passes that went off the hands of receivers. He also had a deep touchdown pass to Amari Cooper, which was also dropped.
Those mistakes cost Watson a mid-20-point day in fantasy. So it won't be time to make wholesale changes until you get a little more information.
Jess Bryant: This is only relevant in deeper leagues, but I would sit Mike Williams until we see the Jets trust his health. I think he was more limited than people anticipated. Ladd McConkey and Greg Dortch had 7 and 8 targets, respectively, in Week 1, and using them in a deep-league flex spot makes sense. I watched the Cardinals game closely, and Kyler Murray appeared most comfortable with Dortch. Marvin Harrison Jr. will obviously get a larger target share going forward. Still, Dortch may have a decent floor this season. I am starting J.K. Dobbins and Jordan Mason (if McCaffrey is out) instead of Javonte WIlliams. I see Williams bouncing back, but he may share the backfield evenly with Jaleel McLaughlin moving forward.
Jake Trowbridge: Unless your players are dealing with an injury (or an injury to their quarterback), most of your lineup changes should be reserved for flex spots. Those stud receivers you drafted in the first few rounds — yes, even the rookies — shouldn't be benched after a rough first week. But you should note any mid-round running backs with a much smaller workload than expected and maneuver them as needed. (See: Zamir White.) But remember, all lineup decisions going into Week 2 should be based on overall usage, not just the resulting fantasy points.
Rob Waziak: I'm not differentiating much from my Week 1 lineup other than moving my late-game players into my flex position. Since I avoided the notable injuries, I'm keeping it cool and not overreacting to what happened last week. I am, however, monitoring my players' trends through Dwain McFarland's Utilization Report and my ROS rankings.
Chris Allen: My most significant changes are in the flex, D/ST, and K spots. My draft strategy (agnostic of starting position) typically creates a roster where I can have a strong nucleus of players at the core positions (RB, WR, and at least one elite onesie), negating any need to tinker. And, since I like to play matchups, the flex and D/ST spots allow for that type of nuanced analysis.
Ed Eck: Whenever possible, I am sitting Packers' wide receivers, at least until I see competent quarterback play from Malik Willis. His top three receivers have averaged 9.9 fantasy points combined in his three NFL starts. I do think the Packers will have Willis throw more than the Titans did, but I want to see it first. In one league, I will be sitting Jayden Reed for Courtland Sutton, who I realize did not get competent NFL quarterback play from Bo Nix in Week 1, but at least he is the clear No. 1 target in Denver. Instead of Christian Watson, I will roll with Demarcus Robinson in another league, who should be getting a lot of work while Puka Nacua is out.
2. What are the biggest overreactions from Week 1, and which concerns are valid?
Coach Gene Clemons: You should definitely be concerned with the Green Bay Packers' backs and receivers going forward. The loss of Jordan Love for what could be half the season and no legitimate backup in place means that they all should be thrown in the wait-and-see category going forward. We do not know what Malik Willis will look like in this offense or if he has made strides beyond his few performances with the Titans. Even Josh Jacobs at running back should be a question mark because defenses will immediately start keying on him to shut down the offensive production.
Jess Bryant: Concerns about the Broncos' offense, Bryce Young, and Daniel Jones are valid, but those were concerns coming into the season. The Browns may also have a quarterback problem on their hands, and along with it, a salary cap issue. I wouldn't put any stock into Kyler Murray's comments about Harrison Jr. Murray has never been good with the media. Harrison Jr. will get the ball as the season goes on. I know everyone is saying that Andrews will be fine, and while I agree, when watching the game, I thought he looked tired. While I am picking the Chiefs this week, despite surrendering a league-worst 452 yards Week 1, against the Bengals, the Bengals should improve as the season progresses. Week 3, the Bengals play the Commanders, and Week 4, they play the Panthers. That may be when they start their playoff run.
Jake Trowbridge: The urge to type this in all caps is almost overwhelming, but hear me when I say that elite tight ends have not been wiped off the face of the earth! Yes, many of our old favorites drastically underperformed in Week 1. Do you know when else that happened? Week 1 of last season. So please avoid the temptation to swap Travis Kelce out of your lineup in favor of Foster Moreau. That said, if you were high on previously solid TEs in suddenly crowded offenses, now is probably the time to recalibrate. Guys like Cole Kmet and Dalton Schultz simply can't be trusted as weekly starters.
Rob Waziak: Dalton Kincaid saw just one five-yard target in Week 1 and saw that target halfway through the 4th quarter after eight other Bills' players already had theirs. Bills OC Joe Brady stated that the Cardinals' "defense was really concerned with where (Kincaid) was on any given moment," which allowed opportunities for others. While I expect more production from Kincaid moving forward (he saw the 7th-highest snap share among TEs in Week 1), his usage is worth monitoring, especially following a lackluster TNF performance against the Dolphins.
Chris Allen: The Bengals are doomed. Joe Burrow couldn't hold a water bottle. The concerns about a lack of WR2 are valid. Trenton Irwin ran over 60.0% of the routes and only earned two targets for a whopping six yards. However, Burrow's 22.9% pressure rate tied for the 10th-lowest rate of his career with Cincinnati. Ja'Marr Chase spent most of the offseason away from the team. Give them time, and we'll see them become the potent offense we drafted them to be.
Note: Chris has a live Waiver Wire show on Tuesdays with Titans OL Nicholas Petit-Frere. It is awesome:
Ed Eck: Biggest overreaction: Isaiah Likely passed Mark Andrews in Baltimore. Andrews will still be the guy, but Likely will also be a guy you can start. Stop thinking of Likely as a tight end to replace Andrews and think of him as the Ravens' third pass catcher along with Zay Flowers. Unlike many offenses with two receivers and a tight end you can start, the Ravens have two tight ends and a wide receiver.
3. After seeing New Orleans' offensive production against Carolina, which NFL matchups this week are most crucial from a fantasy perspective? And, on that note, how many games do the Panthers win this year?
Coach Gene Clemons: Did the Panthers' lack of productivity on offense lead to the defense giving up more production, or did the lack of defensive effectiveness lead to the offense needing to press and get out of their original game plan? Regardless, it was a mess, and it does not leave you with any positive feelings for the team's immediate future. The only saving grace is that this is a new coaching staff that will get better and figure things out. Last season, the Panthers started to level out and be more competitive down the stretch. It still may not equate to wins. It is difficult to see them winning more than three games.
Jess Bryant: I am looking to J.K. Dobbins to have another big week against the Panthers, who gave up 180 rushing yards in Week 1. It’s possible Gus Edwardss puts up better numbers too, especially if the game gets out of hand; I’m sitting Edwards, though. Nabers and Jones could bounce back against the Commanders — who ranked 29th in pass yards against last week. Mayfield, Evans, and Godwin have a good chance at big weeks as well. They’re playing a good Lions team, and so they’ll likely need to pass, and the Lions' pass defense did not hold up in Week 1, surrendering 304 pass yards.
Jake Trowbridge: Considering last year's Saints had one of the best defenses in the league, and the Panthers fielded an offense that could generously be described as "a total abomination," we really should have seen this coming. Generally speaking, avoid bad offenses playing against great defenses unless that defense tends to funnel the opposition's yardage to one key position. Last season, for example, the Bears had a solid defense but consistently gave up big yardage to pass-catching running backs. It's too soon to know exactly what parts of defense you should attack for fantasy, but the hosts of the Fantasy Life Show identified the Commanders, Packers, and Cardinals as especially vulnerable against the pass after Week 1. Oh, and the Panthers will be lucky to escape with five total wins and a single road victory. (Sorry, Carolinians!)
Ed Eck: Last year, the Panthers scored 20 offensive TDs, one more than the Jets' league-low 19. They made improvements on the O-line and the receiving corps, but I don't think either group is in the top half of the league, so I didn't expect the offense to be a fantasy juggernaut. Giving up 47 points was a bit of a shocker, but maybe the new-look Saints offense is that good, so don't give up yet, Panthers faithful. Sometimes, you just run into a bad matchup or game where everything goes wrong. It just feels worse when it's Week 1. Look at the Giants in Week 1 last year; actually, I wouldn't ask my worst enemy to do that. So, let's look at the Texans instead. They lost 25-9 in their opener but went on to have one of the best passing attacks in the league and won 10 games. Don't get me wrong, the Panthers are not the Texans; they will not win 10 games, but with one of the easiest schedules, doubling last year's total of two wins should be within reach once they get their sea legs.
4. With quarterback struggles in Week 1, are there any receivers on the Giants, Broncos, Browns, Titans, or Panthers you feel comfortable starting?
Coach Gene Clemons: Although Daniel Jones struggled in Week 1, it is clear that Daboll will manufacture ways to get Nabers the ball. In the first week, he had seven targets — but Wan'Dale Robinson had 12. I could see those numbers flipping as early as Week 2. It was a pedestrian start for Nabers but one that showed a flash of his capabilities if Jones levels out, which I expect him to do. The Broncos, Browns, Titans, and even the Panthers have multiple guys looking for the ball. The Giants have one guy they should be looking to feature.
Jess Bryant: In a league with Nico Collins and Amon-Ra St. Brown as my starting receivers and James Conner in my flex position, I am not starting Nabers. But, in every other league, I am. Daniel Jones has ups and downs, whereas Young and Nix need to prove they have ups. Nix was very efficient in the preseason, so Courtland Sutton could make a comeback in Week 2, but I don't have receivers from any of the other teams starting this week, and I am a big Diontae Johnson fan. I don’t happen to have any shares of Calvin Ridley, but while he only had three receptions, he was targeted seven times. The Jets gave up 401 total yards in Week 1, so I’m not scared of playing Ridley, even with Levis’ Week 1 struggles.
Jake Trowbridge: I stand with Dwain McFarland, who puts Malik Nabers into all his lineups this week. It's an ideal matchup against Washington, who gave up the 2nd-most passing yards last year and kept that trend going in Week 1 with nearly 300 yards from Baker Mayfield. Heck, in some leagues where my teams have racked up injuries, I'll even toss Wan'Dale Robinson into my flex spot. I'm also fine rolling out Tony Pollard against a Jets defense that just got bulldozed by Jordan Mason.
Rob Waziak: I'm definitely comfortable starting Malik Nabers! Now, while I don't love having to start guys like Amari Cooper, Calvin Ridley, Courtland Sutton, and Diontae Johnson every week, they're target hogs. Their QBs will never stop targeting them. They will get theirs more weeks than not.
Chris Allen: I can't dismiss Wan'Dale Robinson's absurd 31.6% target share as a one-off performance. Especially when the Giants will be facing the Commanders in Week 2. In a couple of my PPR leagues, I picked up Robinson and plan to at least consider him as a flex option, depending on how injury reports and other news shakes out heading into the weekend.
Ed Eck: I guess it depends on how you define “comfortable” and how deep your league is. I already said I'm starting Courtland Sutton this week, so I guess you could say I'm as comfortable as an old shoe … with a rock in it. The ceiling is low, but Sutton did lead the Broncos in snaps, routes, and targets, and I think he will continue to do so. Now we just need some of those passes to be catchable; in shallow leagues, you probably have better options. I am more comfortable with Amari Cooper, whose day would have looked much different if he caught a pretty wide-open bomb from Watson. (See the Sheesh Report) I was much lower on Malik Nabers than most analysts because of the Giants' offense, but if you did use a high pick on him based on his ridiculous talent and the Giants' desire to feed him, you need to keep running him out there. Big games will come, but expect some single-digit fantasy games along the way.
5. Which FanDuel bet are you taking this week?
- Saquon Barkley and Bijan Robinson to Each have 30+ Rushing Yards in Each Half (+750)
- Malik Nabers and Xavier Worthy to Combine for 200+ Yards (+1000)
- Ja'Marr Chase, Rashee Rice, and Travis Kelce to Combine for 4+ TDs (+1400)
Coach Gene Clemons: Barkley and Bijan over 30+ rushing yards in each half is just too tempting to avoid. For each player, 30 yards is a carry away because they possess the explosiveness to break a big run at any time. Last week, Bijan had 26 yards at halftime. He was five yards away from achieving that goal. The Eagles and Atlanta gave up over 130 yards rushing in Week 1. Atlanta surrendered yards to a running back with a mobile QB. Philly gave up yards to a team with a quarterback who was not looking to run. It seems simple to me.
Jake Trowbridge: The Chiefs vs. Bengals TD bet feels like a trap, as Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow have only combined for 4+ passing TDs in two of their previous matchups. I'll go with what seems to be consensus and take the odds on the running backs, though I have a feeling Philly will key in on Bijan throughout the game.
Chris Allen: I'll join the squad and take the RB bet. Both were among 14 RBs with 60.0% or more of their team's carries. Plus, Barkley and Robinson were one of nine RBs above 3.0 adjusted yards after contact per carry despite seeing loaded boxes (8+ men) on over 35.0% of their carries.
Ed Eck: The running back bet seems like the most likely to hit, but they are called long shots for a reason.
BONUS Pop Culture Q: The '90s are back in style, and Gen Z embraces nostalgia. What '90s fashion trend or pop culture phenomenon are you excited to see make a comeback?
Coach Gene Clemons: Baggy sweats have always been my jam, I am not sure why the super tight joggers became en vogue, but I never liked it. That forced me into buying a size up or more just to get the level of relaxed fit that I was looking for, but it came with waistlines that were ridiculously wide and almost impossible to cinch up and keep them waist high. Even back when it was a trend, we bought clothes that were too big on purpose. That forces you to constantly need to pull your pants up. Seeing baggy make a comeback gives me hope that manufacturers will be able to accommodate the style while also making the waist fit the proper size.
Chris Allen: Can I get a good movie that isn't aiming to be a box-office blockbuster? We've had a few hits over the last 10 years, like Den of Thieves and whatever the Fast and Furious franchise has morphed into, but I'll take something like Con-Air or Face-Off any day of the week.
Jess Bryant: I am so into the general 2024-elevation of grunge fashion, including baggy jeans, oversized shirts, and the couldn’t-care-less attitude it exudes. I also want tie-dye back. I miss twisting and rubber-banding T-shirts and dipping them in dye. I agree with Chris that I want more feel-good movies of a certain quality and cast. Now, we either get Oscar-nominated films or movies purchased at a low price and flung, without thought, onto streaming programs. I am advocating for more movies like Empire Records.
Ed Eck: I'm not sure if this is a trend, but I sure do wish we could bring back being wrong about stuff without being called out because everyone has the answer to every question known to man at their fingertips. Stupid information superhighway.
Jake Trowbridge: Thank you for providing me with this platform to politely request that we bring back slap bracelets. Someone, please get on this.
Rob Waziak: Zubaz! They remind me of cold Bills' football games.
