In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Bleacher Nation Fantasy:
While we wait on Davante Adams (Jets finalizing an offer?) and Rashee Rice (still crickets) news, let’s do a classic roundup from across the league.
Here are a bunch of nuggets that are relevant to the fantasy landscape, along with a quick take from me on how to play it …
🚑️ Brandin Cooks ruled out for Week 5. And it could be longer, due to an infection in his right knee.
Action item: Jalen Tolbert should be rostered everywhere and Jake Ferguson is a Top-5 TE play until further notice.
👀 An RB switch in New England? Although this is just “under consideration,” it’s worth keeping tabs on the workload going forward.
Action item: Rhamondre Stevenson is a shakier start this week, while Antonio Gibson enters FLEX territory in PPR leagues.
🚨 Notable players who missed practice yesterday: Jonathan Taylor, Anthony Richardson, Malik Nabers, and Devin Singletary.
Action item: Trey Sermon should not be available on any waivers, and it’s worth stashing Tyrone Tracy just in case.
🙏 Nick Chubb is set to return to practice. This is great news for the Browns. It will still be a slow build until he returns to game action, but there is light at the end of the tunnel. Btw, David Njoku is back to practice as well.
Action item: Now would be a good time to shop around Jerome Ford.
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Dwain’s Week 5 Rankings: Risers, Fallers, and Sicko Starts
- Watercooler: TNF goodness
How High Can The Packers Fly?
- by Dwain McFarland
It is time to set our fantasy lineups for Week 5, and with that in mind, let's follow the data to analyze some of the biggest risers and fallers in the ranks to help you make those critical start-sit decisions.
📈 Rankings Risers
Jordan Love | QB | Packers
Love had a monster fantasy outing last weekend with 389 yards and four passing TDs in a second-half comeback effort against the Vikings. Sure, the trailing game script led to more passing attempts in the second half, but let's not bury the lede here. In a league that is struggling to pass the ball, Love found a way, just as he did in Week 1 with 260 yards and 2 TDs.
The Packers face the second-most fantasy-friendly defense in the NFL against QBs. The Rams have sanctioned a 4.3-point fantasy boost to opposing passers, allowing 234 yards and two passing TDs per contest. Green Bay boasts the fifth-highest team total (26) as four-point favorites over Los Angeles.
Love UPGRADES to mid-range QB1 status as my QB5.
Jayden Reed | WR | Packers
Honestly, no player in the NFL is more due for negative regression than Reed. He ranks sixth in fantasy points per game (19.7) but 34th in Utilization Score (6.6). Reed's 77% route participation, 21% targets per route run (TPRR), and 20% target share are WR3 marks, and his 91% catchable target rate is ripe for downturn despite his 8.2 aDOT.
Historically, WRs in the range of Reed's Utilization Score have averaged 12.4 fantasy points, finishing as a WR3 or WR4. Essentially, two massive spike games carry the day for Reed's PPR average.
Sanity check. Yes, we are still in the upgrade section of this column; you didn't unrealizingly teleport to the downgrades. While the data suggests Reed will come down from his current fantasy high, there is still plenty to like about his game–especially this weekend.
Both of Reed's spike games came with Jordan Love at the helm. The second-year WR has 20% and 32% target shares in those contests and 7.5 and 8.2 Utilization Scores. Secondly, sometimes great players overcome less-than-optimal situations–we saw this phenomenon last season with De'Von Achane and Jahmyr Gibbs.
Then there is the matchup with the Rams. The betting markets expect the Packers to score plenty of points this weekend with the No. 2 team total (26), and Los Angeles has granted the seventh-largest boost (3.8) to the WR position.
I expect the truth around Reed to eventually settle somewhere in between what his Utilization Score and fantasy points say. That likely means WR2 territory the rest of the way, but it is all systems go this weekend.
Reed UPGRADES to mid-range WR1 status in a great matchup.
📉 Rankings Faller
Dak Prescott | QB | Cowboys
Prescott is the QB7 in fantasy, averaging 18.2 points per game. However, this weekend, the Cowboys carry a below-average team total (20) in a matchup against a Steelers defense that has held QBs two points under their season average per our Fantasy Boost metric.
When you put all the factors together, Prescott deserves a downgrade. However, it is worth noting that past fantasy points are more predictive than matchup or team total, which still gives Prescott a chance to come through. So, don't go out of your way to stream a different option if it means making a tough cut at another position on your roster.
Prescott DOWNGRADES to high-end QB2 territory, and I would start Jordan Love, Justin Fields, Geno Smith, and Baker Mayfield ahead of him in Week 5.
👀 Sicko Start
I want to throw in a few names for all my fellow fantasy managers that are in a SICKO league. If you are in a 12-team league with three starting WRs and two flexes, these are for you! Or you are in a more typical setup but need a name to help get you through injuries; these are for you!
Let's go, you sickos.
TuTu Atwell | WR | Rams
In two games without Cooper Kupp, Atwell has a 20% target share and 33% air yards share. He averages 12.8 fantasy points during that stretch with a 6.4 Utilization Score (WR3 to WR4 territory). The speedy WR has enjoyed motion at the snap on a whopping 42% of routes, which is exceptionally high. That makes him a tough player to isolate in coverage and gives him a head start on defenders.
The Packers have surrendered the sixth-most receiving yards per game (254), and the Rams offer a respectable 22-point team total (11th-highest).
I am 20 spots ahead of Fantasy Life consensus on Atwell as my No. 68 player overall.
Note: I nearly went with Jordan Whittington here after a 30% target share last weekend, but his utilization has been up and down. He is in play as well if Atwell isn't available.
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The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:
⚔️ Week 5 kicks off with another division rivalry tonight … projections for the game.
📈 Players back at practice: Tank Dell, Trey McBride, Joe Mixon.
💰️ The best prop bets for tonight’s Falcons/Bucs game. We’ve got you covered.
🤷 Doug Pederson says everything is fine. The lady doth protest too much methinks.
🤣 Sean McVay misspeaks. Lmaoooo.
📖 The best play callers in the league. Shane Waldron is so frustrating.
🙏 Breece Hall is going to be just fine. Deep breaths.
