Living the fantasy life isn't always all fun and games, but that doesn't mean we can't appreciate the ups and downs that any given season presents along the way. Accordingly, we'll be chronicling some of the ebbs and flows of the fantasy calendar as we progress through the 2024 season. And just like that: We're on to Week 4 …
There have been plenty of early-season surprises in fantasy football land this year. From Jauan Jennings being the overall PPR WR4, to Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews combining for fewer PPR points than Mike Gesicki: Weeks 1-3 have been a good reminder that we never know as much as we think we do about the greatest sport on the planet.
Perhaps the biggest early surprise from the QB position specifically revolves around Colts signal-caller Anthony Richardson, who has mixed in more downs than ups for a 1-2 Indy squad that ranks a mediocre 17th in points per game.
The passing numbers here have been, well, awful.
Richardson among 35 QBs with 25-plus dropbacks:
- EPA per dropback: -0.101 (No. 30)
- PFF pass grade: 48.3 (No. 32)
- Yards per attempt: 8 (No. 8)
- Completion percentage: 49.3% (No. 35)
- Completion percentage over expected: -10.3% (No. 34)
Richardson is WAY too close to Bryce Young for comfort when it comes to his overall passing efficiency this season:
Compensating for various factors like drops, penalties, and strength of schedule does paint Richardson in a bit more favorable light. This offense has remained very explosive, and the counting numbers also haven't been THAT brutal: Derek Carr has *two* more passing yards than Richardson this season.
It's also remarkable that Richardson has averaged eight yards per attempt while completing under 50% of his passes. Since 2000 52 QBs have also completed fewer than half of their passes, and the only other QB to average north of seven yards per attempt was … Tim Tebow.
Of course, this is thanks in large part to Richardson regularly channeling his inner-Jameis and airing the ball the f*ck out. The man broke the Next-Gen Stats passing chart with his ridiculous bomb to Alec Pierce back in Week 1 and has an absurd 12.9-yard average target depth on the season–the second-highest mark over the course of a regular season since 2006 only behind … Tim Tebow.
Now, having the former Jaguars TE as a close comp is hardly what Colts fans want to hear, but the highs have admittingly been high. The 2023 NFL Draft's No. 4 overall pick is capable of making throws that truly border on absurd. Richardson has one of the biggest arms in the league and certainly isn't afraid to use it.
Then again, like Tebow, there are also moments where watching Richardson throw the football hurts. This season Richardson has racked up 189 incomplete air yards to receivers that PFF considered open or wide open. Only Deshaun Watson (170) and Bo Nix (159) are also over 100.
The off-target throws and bad decisions have outweighed the flashes of brilliance in the minds of many. Rookie WR Adonai Mitchell, in particular, has been forced to deal with a lot of sheesh-worthy downfield throws through three weeks of action, but even lower-aDOT layups have generally been a roller coaster.
Of course, it makes sense that the 22-year-old talent with just 13 collegiate starts to his name is going through a bit steeper of a learning curve than most at the position. Early-season matchups against the Texans (No. 11 in EPA allowed per dropback), Packers (No. 10), and Bears (No. 3) also haven't exactly been ideal-–the Colts have faced the league's toughest schedule in Weeks 1-4 in terms of defensive EPA allowed per dropback when including the Steelers.
Obviously, the Colts' own offensive ineptitude has tied into some of those numbers; just realize this offense hasn't gotten to flex its muscles against a Commanders or Rams-level secondary to this point.
All that said: Richardson possesses the sort of fantasy-friendly archetype that should win out over the long run. After all, Tebow is objectively one of the worst passers of the football the position has seen in the last quarter century, yet still managed to work as the fantasy QB8 during Weeks 7-17 of the 2011 season thanks to that sweet, sweet rushing upside.
The problem for Richardson is he simply hasn't dominated on the ground this season. The following leaderboard denotes the most productive rushing QBs this season in terms of their total fantasy points gained from purely runs:
- Jayden Daniels (35.1)
- Lamar Jackson (31.5)
- Bo Nix (22.7)
- Josh Allen (20.5)
- Jalen Hurts (20.2)
- Anthony Richardson (17.7)
Note that Richardson would rank third if he had gained just a few more inches on a goal-line rush attempt last week that resulted in him being tackled inside the one-yard line. He's still averaging a solid six rush attempts per game, and his 6.5 yards per carry is superior to what we saw last year (5.4). It's just not quite what we expected from arguably the most athletic QB … ever.
It is this rushing usage that should save the day for Richardson in fantasy land over the course of a larger sample. He remains a top-three QB in terms of rushing volume near the goal line and is one of only six QBs with double-digit designed rush attempts this season. Reminder: His 41 fantasy points are more than guys like Kirk Cousins (34.8), Jared Goff (34.7), and Matthew Stafford (34.2) can attest to having despite the slow start. Patrick Mahomes and C.J. Stroud have scored three and 1.8 more fantasy points than Richardson.
We simply don't have much of a track record of these sorts of high-volume dual-threat signal-callers overly busting in fantasy land. From Dwain McFarland's preseason QB tiers breakdown:
“Since 2011, we have had 21 instances of a QB recording 100 or more rushing attempts while passing for fewer than 3,500 yards. That group delivered 20.3 PPG with an average finish of QB8. Only three failed to secure a top-12 finish.”
Note the low passing yardage qualifier there: Even BAD passing QBs have managed to put up big-time fantasy numbers with the benefit of a featured role in the run game.
I would love for this to be the part of the article where I encourage everyone to stick with Richardson in fantasy leagues of all shapes and sizes and start him with confidence this week … but unfortunately, T.J. Watt and the Steelers are coming to town this weekend. The NFL's No. 1 defense in EPA allowed per play (-0.252) has allowed a league-low 9.5 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs; it's more likely than not that Richardson has at least one more underwhelming performance before the tide turns, and he's accordingly just the QB14 in the Fantasy Life Consensus Rankings.
After that though? Richardson gets three consecutive winnable spots against the Jaguars, Titans, and Dolphins–-the 28th, 25th, and 22nd-ranked scoring defenses this season.
I'd be surprised if the Colts passing game turns around in an overly meaningful way even against these softer defenses, but at a minimum, we should expect the league's reigning 10th-ranked scoring offense to catch its stride a bit more, which will inevitably lead to more box score production from the man under center leading the charge. Reminder from last week: Early-season QB production is less correlated to final fantasy rankings relative to WRs and TEs.
The only thing that would really mess things up for Richardson's fantasy managers? Head coach Shane Steichen waving the white flag and turning the offense over to Joe Flacco.
While this shouldn't be viewed as completely impossible, it'd be incredibly surprising considering the original investment made into a raw QB who simply hasn't played much football over the years. Starting Flacco might lead to better immediate returns, but it'd nuke the potential for Richardson and the Colts to benefit from arguably the single-greatest team-building advantage in the sport: Having the opportunity to build around an above-average QB working under a rookie contract.
The verdict remains very much out on whether or not Richardson will emerge as a viable long-term starter in the NFL; just realize he'd really be an outlier should something close to elite fantasy production not emerge soon. Don't count on a blowup performance this Sunday against the Steelers, but I will happily be buying low on the alien-esque athlete come next Monday.
And if I'm wrong? Well, I've already agreed to ride my bike to Lucas Oil Stadium if Richardson starts 17 games and doesn't finish as a top-12 fantasy QB. So yeah: Please, Anthony, figure it out.
Good luck to everyone this week and always remember: It's a great day to be great!
