When developing our strategy for drafting fantasy football teams, there are three key factors to consider:

  1. Positional supply and demand: How many do I need, and how many are available? League scoring and starting roster requirements are enormous factors that many fantasy players don't consider.
  2. Value: Can I target mispriced assets that offer similar value at this position later? The more confidence we have in this answer, the more we can consider not spending early picks on the position. These players become pillars within our strategy.
  3. Draft capital allocation: How much have I spent on this position? As a rule of thumb, the more we spend earlier in drafts, the less we will invest later and vice versa.

Using these simple concepts, along with our fantasy football rankings—which consider your custom scoring and roster settings—we can create an adaptable framework for drafting.

Every fantasy season, our strategy can differ depending on where positions and players go in drafts. Fortunately, we can access fantasy football ADP data from all the major sites to help identify the positions where we are most comfortable waiting and which we need to attack early.

So far, we have outlined the perfect strategy for QB, WR and TE. Today, we will analyze the RB landscape to unveil the optimal draft strategy for the position in 2024.

Running Back Supply and Demand

Starting lineup requirements

Most fantasy leagues require two starting RBs and a flex position. That means in a 12-team league, there will be 24 starters, and roughly half of the flex spots will be filled by RBs, totaling 30 starters. This makes RBs a high-demand position on par with WRs in leagues that start with two WRs. In leagues that start 3 WRs, the WR position moves ahead.

Volume is KING

At WR and TE, playing time doesn't guarantee fantasy points because target-earning (talent) is a prerequisite to opportunity. However, talent is a much smaller driver to earning touches at the RB position. Even inefficient backs like Rachaad White can rack up fantasy points if given enough touches.

Think about it. Once a back is handed the ball, nine other players (typically excluding the QB) are doing a job to help the RB gain yards. A running back doesn't have to get open and make a tough catch to score fantasy points. Because of this dynamic, it is easier to find strong fantasy producers on the waiver wire at RB than at WR or TE.

This doesn't mean we don't want efficient backs, but God only made so many players like Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall. Explosive backs that can contribute in a big way in the passing game are among the most coveted possessions in fantasy football. We want to roster them every chance because they can almost single-handedly win your league.

Strategy bonus: because backup RBs suddenly in a starting role are more likely to produce fantasy points than backup WRs entering the lineup, we can build SUPER TEAMS by cornering the market at WR and aggressively attacking the waiver wire at RB.

Running Back Historical Scoring

When your alpha RB runs pure, there is nothing better in Fantasyland.

Since 2011, RBs have led the top three finishers in points per game (minimum eight) versus other flex-eligible positions (WRs and TEs):

  • PPR: 56% of the top three finishes (44% for WR)
  • Half PPR: 77% of the top three finishes (23 % for WR) 
  • Standard: 95% of the top three finishes (5% for WR)

This makes McCaffrey, Hall and Robinson appealing at the top of fantasy drafts. However, after they are gone, the dynamics change and WRs move to the forefront.

After the true difference makers at RB are off the board, pivoting to focus on WRs makes a lot of sense in PPR and half-PPR formats based on historical scoring trends and the ADP values in 2024. I want my flex position to be a WR to start the season. 

When you put everything together, the Hero RB strategy (take one RB in the first three rounds and then wait) makes a lot of sense – especially if you have a top-four pick this year.

However, the Hero RB strategy doesn't come without risk because coaches are notorious for tinkering with situational roles at the RB position – it is an unknown we don't have to worry about with elite WRs. No one expected Arthur Smith to limit his No. 8 draft pick at a position with a limited shelf life to 45% of the rushing attempts, but he did, and there are similar rumors around Robinson this year.

There are some sweet spots to target RB values throughout the draft that we can implement into our plan. Of course, we MUST understand the late-round RB landscape. Who are the stash plays that might walk into some SWEET volume based on injuries or lousy play by teammates that catapults them to high-end fantasy standing?

Running Back Values: Strategy Pillars

Below is an outline of my favorite RBs to target at value based on ADP in 2024.

Rounds 1 to 3

McCaffrey, Hall and Robinson are my Tier 1 backs and are all viable picks in the first half of the first round. For a full breakdown of their greatness and why they are worthy of an early pick, you can read all about it in my tiers article, but I want to focus on the non-first-rounders for the sake of the "value" part of this conversation. 

I consider CMC, Hall and Robinson all on par with CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill and Ja'Marr Chase in PPR and half PPR – it comes down to preference and knowing how your league mates draft. If you think the better value will be at WR later or are worried about Lamb and Chase's contract status, take the RB. If you think the better value will be at RB, or you don't want the risk of coach-tinkering derailing your top-six pick, go with the WR.

Now, let's dig into those value strategy pillars.

De'Von Achane | Dolphins

  • ESPN ADP: 33
  • Sleeper ADP: 23 
  • Yahoo ADP: 26

Would an RB that averaged 19.8 PPG in contests when his backfield mate Raheem Mostert was healthy interest you?

While your league mates perform mental summersaults to name all the reasons Achane can't succeed (i.e., injury-prone, too small, efficiency regression), you, the sharp drafter, will realize we are drafting this man closer to his floor than his ceiling.

Oh, that write-up isn't enough? Well, check out what Weighted Opportunity had to say about Achane in Ryan Heath's fantastic piece over at Fantasy Points.

Achane projects as my RB13 based on a CONSERVATIVE utilization similar to last season. He morphs into a top-five running back if he modestly improves. He is the RB13 on ESPN, RB10 on Sleeper and RB11 on Yahoo. If Achane hits his upside, it will crush your leaguemates' souls; if he doesn't, he is still a high-end RB2.

This is the type of bet we want to make in late Round 2 or early Round 3 – especially if we took a WR in Round 1.

Fades at ADP: Josh Jacobs (Round 3), Joe Mixon (Round 3), Rachaad White (Late Round 3/Early Round 4) – I am only taking these players if they fall into Rounds 4 or 5. They all project for volume but are overpriced versus talented WRs in the same draft range. If I started WR-WR, I *might* be willing to grab Jacobs or Mixon at the end of Round 3 in a 2WR league, but I would not grab another one in Round 4.

Rounds 4 to 6

Guidelines for this section of the draft depending on how many backs you already have on your roster heading into Round 4:

  • Three: draft zero RBs; attack WR
  • Two: draft zero RBs; attack WR plus one TE or QB if you don't have one
  • One: draft minimum of one RB and a maximum of two
  • Zero: draft a minimum of one RB, but two is optimal; a maximum of three

Kenneth Walker | Seahawks

  • ESPN ADP: 48
  • Sleeper ADP: 49 
  • Yahoo ADP: 49

Walker notched 13.5 and 13.3 PPG in his first two seasons, putting him squarely in the RB2 conversation. He offers the upside as a rusher to do more damage, and the vibes have been positive about more work on passing downs this preseason.

While Zach Charbonnet was the preferred option on passing downs last season, that was a different Seahawks coaching regime. Charbonnet had a better collegiate receiving profile than Walker, but let's not lose the plot – both guys are swing pass options, not second-level route concept players. That leaves the door open for Walker to assume an every-down role.

Walker would rank in Tier 2 in an alternate universe where we knew he was in line for the passing-down work. The good news is that the fear of a rotation is already priced in, providing us with massive upside if that fear is unwarranted.

If Walker remains in a committee, we get a mid-range RB2, which is his price. If the preseason hype is accurate, we bank considerable value on a back in their prime with RB1 upside.

Walker is a PRIORITY target as an RB1 or RB2 option at the end of Round 4 or early Round 5 of fantasy drafts.

James Conner | Cardinals

  • ESPN ADP: 81
  • Sleeper ADP: 62 
  • Yahoo ADP: 61

James Conner averaged a cool 16.4 PPG in 2023, excluding Week 5, when he left early with a knee injury. That was on a pitiful offense that should be much improved with a healthy Kyler Murray and the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. in the NFL Draft.

While Conner has battled injuries that have caused him to miss 10 games over the last three years, he has been a consistent RB1 from a PPG standpoint. He carries more risk than in previous seasons because an injury could open the door for the team's Round 3 draft pick, Trey Benson, to capsize Conner's stranglehold on utilization.

However, Conner carries offers the best price tag of all the aging former RB1s projected to lead their backfields. The veteran is a Round 6 selection, coming off the board 10 to 30 picks after names like Mixon, Alvin Kamara and Aaron Jones. Don't hate the player; hate the ADP. Or, in this case, don't love the player; love the ADP!

Raheem Mostert | Dolphins

  • ESPN ADP: 102
  • Sleeper ADP: 78 
  • Yahoo ADP: 67

I realize that I just told you to draft Achane. So, how can I turn around and tell you that Mostert is also a target? It is simple: his price is too low.

While we should expect Achane to take a step forward in utilization, that doesn't mean that Mostert's workload will reduce to zero. He will still be a relevant piece of one of the highest-scoring offenses in the NFL. 

Mostert shouldn't be going 15 to 30 picks after David Montgomery. Yes, Montgomery is younger, but the rest of their profile is the same. Both are stuck playing with ascending young backs on highly projected offenses.

Rounds 7 to 9

Guidelines for this section of the draft depending on how many backs you already have on your roster heading into Round 7:

  • Four: don't draft another RB; attack your positions of weakness
  • Three: draft a minimum of one RB and a maximum of two
  • Two: draft a minimum of one RB and a maximum of two
  • One: draft a minimum of two RBs and a maximum of three
  • Zero: draft three RBs

This stretch of the draft is littered with RBs from ambiguous backfields. All these players should be in a time-share at minimum, but some will emerge as the lead options. While we don't know which is which, we want to embrace the uncertainty and attack RBs in these rounds – especially if we went heavy on WRs early.

Most of this group offers us RB3 value out of the gate with a chance to improve to RB2 status as the committee leader. With a teammate injury, some of these names will ascend to RB1 territory.

  • Jaylen Warren | Steelers: Dealing with a hamstring injury but offers RB1 upside profile if Najee Harris ever suffers an injury or the team decides to make the more effective back (Warren) the lead option.
  • Jonathon Brooks | Panthers: He won't play early in the season (ACL) but offers league-winning upside when he returns. Backs with his profile have delivered an RB2-level finish 72% of the time in their first two seasons.
  • Chase Brown | Bengals: Battling Moss for playing time, but if either emerges as a 55%-plus option on this offense, it will be fun. We have had a lot of co-starter-like chatter from the coaches and similar signs in the preseason utilization (both resting with starters).
  • Zack Moss | Bengals: See Brown above.
  • Devin Singletary | Giants: The name in this range most locked into a big Week 1 role. If you need cheap early-season volume, Singletary is your man.
  • Tony Pollard | Titans: The coaching staff has told us Pollard and Spears are interchangeable, and the preseason utilization backs that up.
  • Tyjae Spears | Titans: See Pollard above.
  • Brian Robinson Jr. | Commanders: Preseason utilization backs up the coachspeak with Robinson as the early-down leader and Austin Ekeler handling the passing downs.
  • Javonte Williams | Broncos: Likely the early-down back, with Jaleel McLaughlin stealing some drives and passing down reps.

Rounds 10+

Guidelines for this section of the draft depending on how many backs you already have on your roster heading into Round 10:

  • Five: don't draft another RB
  • Four: draft a minimum of zero and a maximum of two, depending on how early you took your other four backs (i.e., if they were all by Round 6, you don't have to take any more)
  • Three: draft a minimum of one and a maximum of three, depending on how early you took your other three backs
  • Two: draft a minimum of two and a maximum of four, depending on how early you took your other backs and how many picks you have left

Below, I have further broken these backs into buckets so you can attack the appropriate players based on your roster needs. I have bolded my favorites from each group.

Committee backs that could surprise as the team's clear-cut RB1 in Week 1:

Sneaky chance to have a more prominent role in Week 1 than we think or offer passing-down chops:

Backs that can provide early season points thanks to teammate injury. Draft these players if you have early-season concerns at your RB2 (i.e., Jaylen Warren and Jonathon Brooks).

Handcuff options with potentially little competition should the starter go down. Draft these options if you like your starters but want pure, unadulterated upside.

Preseason vibes:

Running Back Additional Strategy Guidelines

I have noted specific breakdowns in each RB section for 2WR leagues, but I will summarize them again here for ease of reference. Additionally, you will find 3WR league approaches.

Note: If you play on a platform other than ESPN, Sleeper or Yahoo, you will want to check their ADPs and make the necessary adjustments.

Two WR + Flex Leagues

Round-by-Round Guidelines

These bullets refer to how many RBs you should have rostered by the time you reach the final round in the range (i.e., by Round 6 in Rounds 4 to 6).

  • Rounds 1 to 3: Minimum of zero RBs and a maximum of two rostered; one is optimal
     
  • Rounds 4 to 6: Minimum of one RB and a maximum of three rostered; two is optimal
     
  • Rounds 7 to 9: Minimum of two RBs and a maximum of four rostered; three is optimal
     
  • Rounds 10-plus: Minimum of four RBs and a maximum of seven rostered

Additional Notes

  • Remember, if you take fewer RBs early – let's say you have a minimum of two after seven rounds – attack the position more heavily in the following rounds and consider rostering as many as seven if you didn't take your first one until Round 5 or 6, since your other positions should be strong in this scenario.
     
  • Based on the ADPs on these sites, the sweet spot for RBs with a chance to contribute early in the season that isn't too expensive due to the lack of a clear starter is Rounds seven to nine. Additionally, there is more value at WR in Rounds 10-plus on rookie WRs than you might be used to if you have drafted in best ball formats all summer. Consider this when considering how you want to spend your late-round picks.

Three WR + Flex Leagues

Adding another starting WR pushes WRs up and other positions down in our draft plan. However, it impacts my RB approach less than TE and QB. So, the roster guidelines from above for RBs remain the same. However, I am more willing to embrace the minimums and the optimals are less set in stone in each draft range – especially if WR values make it to me.

General Strategy Tips

  • Monitor how your draft is going compared to the ADPs on which your strategy was created. If your league mates use sources other than the rankings and draft queue for the site, they could draft very differently.
     
  • Pay attention to your opponents' needs between your pick and your following selection. For example, if it is Round 7 and they all have a QB, then you can take a calculated risk to pass on the QB to take another position, knowing they shouldn't draft two. One caveat to this rule: if the players behind you don't know what they are doing or are new to fantasy, don't assume they won't take the QB – they just don't know better. 
     
  • Pay attention to the names at the top of the draft queue by position. If there is a player you want and their name is near the top of the list in the draft room, don't be afraid to reach. When players are on the clock and unsure who to take, they often default to names at the top of the queue.