The NFL season is winding down and with each week comes new changes in the 2025 NFL Draft Order. Geoff Ulrich is here to break it down:
The Las Vegas Raiders were able to regain control of the number one overall pick with their 15-9 loss on Monday Night Football in Week 15 to the Falcons. However, with just three weeks left to go, they have multiple teams breathing down their neck in the race to finish with the league’s worst record.
What is the Order of the 2025 NFL Draft? Breaking It Down
The Raiders currently have the same record as the New York Giants BUT with the tiebreaker for teams who finish with the same record being strength of schedule (SoS), the Raiders get the edge. They currently have a .538 strength of schedule on the season, compared to New York’s .547.
Additionally, with Vegas having a weaker end-of-season schedule (.400 vs .585 for New York), if both teams lose out, the Raiders will maintain their edge in the SoS tiebreaker and be awarded the number one overall pick.
Vegas has control of their own destiny at the moment but with the Giants holding the same record and five teams sitting at 3 wins, any win down the stretch by the Raiders would likely crater their chance of getting the first overall pick.
Just to add a little more drama to the mix, the Raiders also have a “showdown” looming with the 3-11 Jaguars in Week 16; a game which will likely go a long way to deciding the top of the draft order this spring.
I’ve listed the current draft order, via Tankathon.com, along with each team’s remaining schedule and their current strength of schedule.
Although SoS is likely to solve any tiebreaker scenario this season, here are the remaining tiebreakers that will come into play. These would only come into play when teams tied with the same record for a spot AND the same strength schedule.
NFL Draft Order Tiebreakers
- Strength of Schedule (mentioned above)
- Head-to-head win-loss
- Best win/loss/tie percentage in common games (min four)
- Strength of victory (all games)
- Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed (all games)
- Best net points (all games)
- Best net touchdowns (all games)
- Coin toss
Honestly, a coin toss would be great, but it’s unlikely to be needed (along with any of the other tiebreakers) this season.
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2025 NFL Draft Order After Week 15
First Overall Contenders
1. Raiders (2-12)
Schedule:
- Week 16: vs Jaguars
- Week 17: at Saints
- Week 18: vs Chargers
If the Raiders lose to the Jaguars, they’ll be underdogs in their last two games and in a great spot to finish with the 1st pick. Win that game and they could fall out of the top two (and miss out on Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders).
2. Giants (2-12)
Schedule:
- Week 16: at Falcons
- Week 17: vs Colts
- Week 18: at Eagles
The Giants will be big underdogs in their remaining three games and in a great spot to grab the first or second overall pick. The Colts and Falcons are both beatable but with Tommy DeVito and Drew Lock at QB, even one win will be a longshot.
3. Patriots (3-11)
Schedule:
- Week 16: at Bills
- Week 17: vs Chargers
- Week 18: vs Bills
The Patriots are likely to finish with 3 wins. IF they lose out and both New York and Vegas finish with 3 wins, the Patriots would get priority over both those teams thanks to their weak schedule.
4. Jaguars (3-11)
Schedule:
- Week 16: at Raiders
- Week 17: vs Titans
- Week 18: at Colts
The Jaguars have a very weak SoS to finish the season, so if they lose out, and both New York and Vegas grab wins, they would very well move up into the first draft slot. Their game vs the Raiders is huge for draft purposes and the futures of both franchises.
5. Panthers (3-11)
Schedule:
- Week 16: vs Cardinals
- Week 17: at Buccaneers
- Week 18: at Falcons
The Panthers have a bit of a tougher end-of-season SoS so they would need a lot of help to get to number one or two.
6. Titans (3-11)
Schedule:
- Week 16: at Colts
- Week 17: at Jaguars
- Week 18: vs Texans
The Titans would need even more help than the Panthers to move up to one or two.
7. Browns (3-11)
Schedule:
- Week 16: at Bengals
- Week 17: vs Dolphins
- Week 18: at Ravens
The Browns will be underdogs in their last three games (most likely) but their SoS would hurt them in the tiebreaker. Still, if we get some upsets, they could sneak up into the top five or even to three.
Likely missing the playoffs but not in line for a top pick. Aka; purgatory
8. Jets (4-10)
Schedule:
- Week 16: vs Rams
- Week 17: at Bills
- Week 18: vs Dolphins
9. Bears (4-10)
Schedule:
- Week 16: vs Lions
- Week 17: vs Seahawks
- Week 18: at Packers
10. Saints (5-9)
Schedule:
- Week 16: at Packers
- Week 17: vs Raiders
- Week 18: at Buccaneers
11. Dolphins (6-8)
Schedule:
- Week 16: vs 49ers
- Week 17: at Browns
- Week 18: at Jets
12. Colts (6-8)
Schedule:
- Week 16: vs Titans
- Week 17: at Giants
- Week 18: vs Jaguars
13. Bengals (6-8)
Schedule:
- Week 16: vs Browns
- Week 17: vs Broncos
- Week 18: at Steelers
14. Cowboys (6-8)
Schedule:
- Week 16: vs Buccaneers
- Week 17: at Eagles
- Week 18: vs Commanders
15. 49ers (6-8)
Schedule:
- Week 16: at Dolphins
- Week 17: vs Lions
- Week 18: at Cardinals
Playoff Bound?
16. Falcons (6-7)
Schedule:
- Week 16: vs Giants
- Week 17: at Commanders
- Week 18: vs Panthers
17. Cardinals (7-7)
Schedule:
- Week 16: at Panthers
- Week 17: at Rams
- Week 18: vs 49ers
18. Seahawks (8-6)
Schedule:
- Week 16: vs Vikings
- Week 17: at Bears
- Week 18: at Rams
19. Chargers (8-6)
Schedule:
- Week 16: vs Broncos
- Week 17: at Patriots
- Week 18: at Raiders
20. Buccaneers (8-6)
Schedule:
- Week 16: at Cowboys
- Week 17: vs Panthers
- Week 18: vs Saints
21. Rams (8-6)
Schedule:
- Week 16: at Jets
- Week 17: vs Cardinals
- Week 18: vs Seahawks
22. Commanders (9-5)
Schedule:
- Week 16: vs Eagles
- Week 17: vs Falcons
- Week 18: at Cowboys
23. Broncos (9-5)
Schedule:
- Week 16: at Chargers
- Week 17: at Bengals
- Week 18: vs Chiefs
24. Ravens (9-5)
Schedule:
- Week 16: vs Steelers
- Week 17: at Texans
- Week 18: vs Browns
25. Texans (9-5)
Schedule:
- Week 16: at Chiefs
- Week 17: vs Ravens
- Week 18: at Titans
Winning games > Drafting high
26. Steelers (10-4)
Schedule:
- Week 16: at Ravens
- Week 17: vs Chiefs
- Week 18: vs Bengals
27. Packers (10-4)
Schedule:
- Week 16: vs Saints
- Week 17: at Vikings
- Week 18: vs Bears
28. Vikings (11-2)
Schedule:
- Week 16: at Seahawks
- Week 17: vs Packers
- Week 18: at Lions
29. Bills (11-3)
Schedule:
- Week 16: vs Patriots
- Week 17: vs Jets
- Week 18: at Patriots
30. Eagles (12-2)
Schedule:
- Week 16: at Commanders
- Week 17: vs Cowboys
- Week 18: vs Giants
31. Lions (12-2)
Schedule:
- Week 16: at Bears
- Week 17: at 49ers
- Week 18: vs Vikings
32. Chiefs (13-1)
Schedule:
- Week 16: vs Texans
- Week 17: at Steelers
- Week 18: at Broncos
Changes To The 2025 NFL Draft Order
Risers In 2025 NFL Draft Order
Bears (4-10) – Tied 9th to Tied 8th
The Bears have now lost eight games in a row and have a nasty end-of-season schedule that includes the Lions, Seahawks, and Packers. They have a great shot at losing out and potentially being in the mix for a top-five draft position depending on how the glut of three-win teams do in their final three games.
49ers (6-8) – Tied 13th to Tied 11th
The 49ers are in a logjam with a bunch of other 6-8 teams but have one of the tougher remaining schedules of that group. If they lose to fellow 6-8 peer Miami this week, it’s possible we’ll see the 49ers pick in the top 10 for the first time in forever.
Fallers in 2025 NFL Draft Order
New York Jets (4-10) – Tied 3rd to Tied 8th
The Jets win over the Jaguars eliminated them from number-one pick contention. They weren’t likely to get it anyway as there are numerous three-win teams with easier Strength of Schedules than them but it was still a demoralizing win from a draft perspective as they’re already been eliminated from the playoffs.
Dallas Cowboys (6-8) Tied 10th (Week 14) to Tied 11th (Week 15)
Dallas picked up a meaningless win last week. They’re too far behind to make any noise in the playoff run and now have lost the draft position edge they held against fellow meanderers like Miami. The good news is that they do have three tough games left that they are all likely to lose, but sticking at five wins would have given them a great shot at a top 10 pick.
Arizona Cardinals (7-7) Tied 13th (Week 14) to 17th (Week 15)
Arizona stayed in the playoff race last week by beating the Patriots but with the Rams and Seahawks in front of them, they also figure to be the bubble boy of that division. Now they’ve allowed all of the six-win teams to leapfrog them in the draft order and still don’t have a great shot at making the playoffs. Gross.
More 2025 NFL Draft Coverage
If you’re looking for the latest on where each player might be going coming out of the draft, Matthew Freedman has his latest Mock Draft up for Week 16. Shedeur Sanders time anyone?
Thor Nystrom also has draft coverage and you can expect it to ramp up every week as the regular season ends. Cam Ward to the Giants?
