As the football season roars on, NFL draft murmurs heat up, and Matthew Freedman is here to discuss QB landing spots for the 2025 NFL draft:
Earlier this week I published a midseason 2025 NFL Mock Draft.
On social media, I got some feedback about the aggressiveness with which I had QBs going off the board.
With that in mind—and with Thor Nystrom's recent publication of his top-five players at the position—I've decided in this piece to update my QB projections and landing spots for Round 1.
Over the past six years (since I started submitting mocks in competitions), I’m the No. 2 mocker for accuracy, and I'm a lifetime 484-424 (+102.6 units) betting on the draft.
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In 2024 I was a terrible 38-49 (-10.4 units) thanks largely to a heavy fade of QB Michael Penix, but I was at least the No. 5 mocker.
Here's my way-too-early 2025 NFL mock draft (published in May), in case you want to check it out.
I've determined draft order by projecting out the rest of the season and assigning picks based on expected win totals for each team. Each week, you can access my team projections in our Fantasy Life Game Models (accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription).
I will be wrong on almost everything in this QB-only mock. That's the nature of an exercise that is almost half a year removed from the event. But as of now here's how I see the QBs in Round 1.
Projecting QB Landing Spots in the 2025 NFL Draft
- 1.01: Titans - Cameron Ward (Miami)
- 1.02: Browns - Shedeur Sanders (Colorado)
- 1.03: Giants - Jalen Milroe (Alabama)
- 1.04: Panthers - Quinn Ewers (Texas)
- 1.06: Raiders - Garrett Nussmeier (LSU)
- Round 1 Borderline: Carson Beck (Georgia)
In my previous mock, I had six QBs going off the board in the first seven picks. If that happened, that would make the 2025 QB class the theoretical greatest of all time … at least in terms of premium draft capital invested in the position.
No one thinks of this upcoming class as especially great at the position—but the same was true last year. Before the 2024 draft, no one talked about the QB class as if it were notably great. No one—literally not one draftnik, pundit, talking head, or vacuous gasbag—said anything approaching, “This might be the best class of QB prospects ever.”
No one compared the 2024 class to the one from 2021, when we had five go in the top 15. No one compared it to 2018, when we had five in the top 32. And no one compared it to 1983, when we had a legendary six go in Round 1.
Even so, on draft night we saw an NFL-record six QBs go in the top 12.
My interpretation of what we saw in the 2024 draft: In the era of cost-controlled rookie contracts, NFL GMs are increasingly willing—and perhaps desperate—to reach for QBs in order to get a chance at adding true difference-making talents to their teams.
Last year, demand at the position mattered more than supply.
I think that dynamic will remain in effect this year.
And that's why I had six QBs going in the top seven.
But after perusing more mocks and saying to myself, "You know what? I probably shouldn't project a new NFL record with a decidedly mediocre class," I've decided to scale back to "just" five QBs in the top six.
Teams That Need QBs in the 2025 NFL Draft
Many teams at the top of my projected draft order need QBs, and that makes sense given the importance of the position: If a team has a viable QB, it's unlikely to play poorly enough to earn a premium pick.
Here are the teams I think right now, based on their current QB rooms, are likely to address the position in a meaningful manner in the draft.
- 1.01: Titans
- 1.02: Browns
- 1.03: Giants
- 1.04: Panthers
- 1.06: Raiders
I wouldn't say these teams are locks to take QBs in Round 1. They could instead opt to add a veteran this offseason via free agency or trade.
With QB depth charts topped by Will Levis, Deshaun Watson, Daniel Jones, Bryce Young, and Gardner Minshew, these teams are at least strong candidates to draft QBs in the top 32.
After them, I can also imagine these teams at least considering QB in Round 1.
- 1.09: Saints
- 1.11: Jets
- 1.14: Colts
- 1.15: Rams
There might not be great supply at the position, but there's certainly demand.
2025 NFL Draft - Quarterback Landing Spots
At this point in the process, I think it's hard—maybe impossible—to look at QBs and attempt to match them precisely and specifically with individual teams on the basis of traits, playing style, etc.
For instance, someone super knowledgeable—a true fan or film connoisseur—could probably look at Ward (my projected No. 1 QB) and then look at Titans HC Brian Callahan and come up with a multitude of reasons for why that match doesn't make sense.
Maybe Ward doesn't have the arm strength or processing speed or pocket awareness or whatever random trait that Callahan might value at the position.
Maybe. Maybe not.
In my opinion, people tend to overestimate their ability to match players with teams based on scheme- or trait-specific fit.
In the end, teams usually—especially in Round 1—draft prospects within a position more or less in accordance with the consensus of how they're ordered on big boards across the industry.
So right now I think it's less important for me to focus on how a player might fit a particular team's scheme and much more important for me instead to analyze whether a team has a notable need at a specific position and to assign the players at that position to the various needy teams in the correct order.
Right now, that's my task.
Which QB Will Go 1.01 in the 2025 NFL Draft?
1.01: Titans - Cameron Ward (Miami)
WR/CB Travis Hunter (Colorado) is the player most often slotted No. 1 in the mocks I've seen, but if the Titans end up with the top pick it's hard to imagine them bypassing QB.
And in over half of these mocks, Ward goes off the board as the No. 1 QB in the class.
Right now, Ward has nation-best marks with 3,494 yards and 32 TDs passing. At a minimum, he has catapulted himself into 1.01 consideration with his 2024 campaign, and looks like he would be a worthy selection.
I haven't bet on him yet at +750 (FanDuel) to be the No. 1 pick, because it still feels too early in the process for that kind of conviction in a QB class that seems so wide open … but I'm thinking about it.
What Team Will Draft Shedeur Sanders?
1.02: Browns - Shedeur Sanders (Colorado)
Sanders is a +200 favorite to be the No. 1 pick. He's also the No. 1 QB in Thor's Fantasy Life QB rankings.
And that makes sense to me.
He has been one of the most electric and highlighted players in college football since last season.
I'd be surprised if he didn't go in the top five.
But at this point in the process, the market is still highly inefficient, and Thor's rankings have more to do with how he sees the prospects actually doing in the NFL than how he sees the NFL collectively valuing the players.
It's not uncommon for the No. 2 QB in a class to outperform the guy who goes No. 1. We saw that last year with C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young. And it looks like we're seeing it again this year with Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams.
And it wouldn't surprise me if eventually I flipped Ward and Sanders in my positional rankings. But right now Sanders is No. 2.
Where Will Jalen Milroe Get Drafted?
1.03: Giants - Jalen Milroe (Alabama)
I see a massive tier drop from Ward and Sanders in the top two to Milroe and Ewers after them.
Even so, I believe the demand at the position will push Milroe and Ewers up the board and into the top five overall.
Why Milroe over Ewers?
The running ability.
- Milroe: 565 yards rushing (2024) | 4.4 yards per carry (career)
- Ewers: -41 yards rushing (2024) | -0.2 yards per carry (career)
I'm not saying that Ewers is a pocket-bound statue. It's possible that he has running ability we simply haven't seen because of the scheme he's in.
But Milroe has outright proven himself as a runner, and his dual-threat ability I expect will attract a GM given how the game is now played in the modern NFL.
What Team Will Draft Quinn Ewers?
1.04: Panthers - Quinn Ewers (Texas)
Ewers isn't in Thor's top five at the position, but he was the No. 1 recruit and QB in the 2021 high school class.
Guys like that still tend to go high in the draft, and he has probably done enough in his three seasons at Texas to draw sustained interest from NFL decision-makers.
Where Will Garrett Nussmeier Land In The 2025 NFL Draft?
1.06: Raiders - Garrett Nussmeier (LSU)
Nussmeier is a one-year breakout and an NFL coach's kid. He feels exactly like the kind of player who goes higher than he should in the draft.
Could Carson Beck Get Drafted In Round 1?
Round 1 Borderline: Carson Beck (Georgia)
When Georgia somehow wins another national championship, you don't think Beck will draw sustained attention from GMs with picks in the back half of Round 1?
Come on …
You can stay on top of all of the top prospects for the 2025 NFL Draft with our suite of College Football Tools, part of FantasyLife+!
