Identifying breakout WRs can drastically increase your chances of winning in fantasy football. Look no further than 2022, where those teams that drafted Amon-Ra St. Brown and Christian Kirk enjoyed WR1 returns at WR3 and WR4 price tags in drafts.
That difference between performance and ADP added up to the second and fifth-best advance rates in Best Ball Mania III at the WR position.
The beauty of the WR position is that it is talent-driven, which makes it one of the more predictable breakout positions. At RB, we still have to worry about pesky coaching preferences for rotations and committees. However, starting WRs don’t rotate much, so if they're good, their QBs generally will find ways to get them the ball.
I love to watch film as much as the next analyst, but I assume that NFL QBs understand who the best players are on the field better than I do. No matter how bad a QB is, they still have far more experience than me and are getting detailed coaching that I've never had.
Plus, NFL QBs want to be successful, and they understand that success comes by targeting players who get open, understand coverages, make the right adjustments, and make plays with the ball in their hands. Targets are earned. With that in mind, let’s dive into how to identify breakout WRs.
The goal of this article is threefold:
- Identify when WRs typically break out based on their experience
- Understand the data points that often precede production leaps
- Apply our learnings from the first two points to identify potential breakout WRs for 2023
Methodology
For this research, a breakout is defined as a WR reaching the WR1 or WR2 threshold for the first time in their career. While a WR2 has technically already had a breakout season, there is a large difference in average fantasy scores between high-end WR1s and low-end WR2s:
- Top-six WRs Since 2011: 330 PPR points
- WR18 to WR24: 223 PPR points
Due to this near 100-point gap, WRs that have already had a WR2 season but not a WR1 season are still included in this breakout analysis.
The thresholds are calculated based on PPR scoring for the corresponding WR rank since 2011. Here are the threshold averages for the top-60 WRs over that span:
- WR1 (12): 263
- WR2 (24): 215
- WR3 (36): 180
- WR4 (48): 155
- WR5 (60): 128
Using averages to drive thresholds, we create more accurate and consistent benchmarks. A WR12 one season might actually be WR16 based on year-over-year average fantasy scores, meaning that single-season anomalies can cause us to overrate or underrate players if we don’t create thresholds using historical averages.
When do WRs typically break out?
Before we go too much further, it is important to zoom out and get a high-level understanding of how a WR's experience plays a role in scoring fantasy points. By contrasting fantasy points scored with experience, we can see when a WR has historically delivered a WR1, WR2, or WR3 season in his career arc.
WR1 performances have come from Year 2 to Year 8 players 85% over the last 12 seasons, and a similar distribution of 83% plays out for WR2 finishes. On the other hand, a WR3 finish is more plausible in Year 1, and it appears that more WRs can also attain that level of production later in their careers in Years 9 and 10.
This all makes sense. As WRs mature into their second seasons, we begin to see them make up a larger portion of the WR1 and WR2 finishes. As they age, they make up fewer of the high-end fantasy finishes.
However, we still need to know how often these WRs were true breakouts versus repeat performers, which is our next step.
For this exercise, we'll limit the pool to players drafted since 2011 since we utilize advanced data points that don’t date back to the early-career days of players like Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald.
When analyzing this data, it's also important to remember that everything is based on a player’s previous high point (e.g., WR1, WR2, WR3). Once a WR has finished as a fantasy WR1, he then doesn't qualify for a first-time WR2 finish even if he technically didn’t have one prior to his WR1 finish.
To be clear, this table tells us when a WR delivered a WR1, WR2, or WR3 performance, how often was it a breakout season compared to a repeat performance. So, 80% of players who posted a WR1 performance in Year 2 were breakouts, and only 20% were repeat performers (Odell Beckham Jr. and Justin Jefferson).
As we would expect, a huge proportion of Year 2 finishes were breakout performances across the board with Year 3 following closely behind. Interestingly, the percentage of players reaching WR1 status for the first time doesn’t fall off as quickly as we might anticipate.
However, first-time WR2 and WR3 performances don’t happen as frequently after Year 3, as most top-24 and top-36 WR performers have already revealed themselves fairly early on in their careers. This becomes even more evident in Year 7 and later, where 100% of the top-24 WR performers are repeats.
Note: We could see large percentage swings in the future considering how sample sizes diminish the further we move away from Year 2. For example, only five WR1s were Year 6 players in the sample. Three (60%) were first-timers, but that number will move significantly when another player enters the sample. Sample sizes diminish equally across performance buckets, so the same can be said for WR2s.
Key Takeaways:
- WR1 breakout performances typically occur within the first six seasons of a WR's NFL career.
- The majority of top-24 WR breakouts occur by Year 3 of the WR's career.
- The majority of top-36 WR breakouts occur by Year 2 of the WR's career.
What signals indicate a potential breakout WR?
Now that we understand the typical time frame for breakout WRs, we must understand the leading indicators. The first one is really straightforward: previous quality fantasy finishes.
WR1 Breakouts
Out of 28 possible WR1 breakout seasons, 57% (16) already had a prior WR2 finish, and 21% (6) had a prior WR3 finish on their resume. Together, 78% of breakout WR1s had already flashed a usable fantasy season.
To identify the next breakout WR1 candidates, combing through the previous WR2 and WR3 finishes is the easiest path to doing so based on this data. And if they are coming up from the WR3 depths, that usually occurs by Year 3.
Isolating the sub-WR3 options that morphed into WR1s, there are other signals we can mine. Using Pro Football Focus (PFF) receiving grade, yards per route run (YPRR), and targets per route run (TPRR), we can use benchmarks based on WR PPR finishes over the last 12 years.
Note: Based on previous research, the threshold for PFF receiving grades for rookie WRs are 75.0-plus, 65.0 to 74.9, and below 65.0.
Using these additional data points, we identified four out of six breakout WR1s that didn’t already have a WR2 or WR3 finish.
- Year 2: Allen Robinson II flashed a WR2-worthy TPRR as a rookie (23%).
- Year 3: Cooper Kupp had eclipsed the 75.0 receiving grade and had posted a WR2 YPRR (2.04) as a rookie and then managed a WR2 receiving grade (79.1) and YPRR (2.26) in his second season.
- Year 5: Doug Baldwin posted an 80.4 rookie receiving grade along with a 24% TPRR and 2.24 YPRR and then added two more WR2 grades in Year 3 (78.9) and Year 4 (75.6).
- Year 6: Robert Woods delivered a WR3-worthy TPRR in his fourth season and added WR2 marks in PFF receiving grade (76.8), TPRR (22%), and YPRR (2.17) in his fifth year.
We had some sort of leading signal on 26 out of the 28 breakout WR1s (93%).
WR2 Breakouts
Out of the 35 breakout WR2s, 51% (18) were preceded by a WR3 finish. That isn’t a great number, but after applying the PFF receiving grade, YPRR, and TPRR benchmarks, we found a leading signal on 10 of the 17 players with sub-WR3 finishes prior to their WR2 breakouts.
- Year 2: DeAndre Hopkins, Brandin Cooks, D.J. Moore, Randall Cobb, Michael Pittman, and Courtland Sutton all graded between 65.0 and 74.9 in PFF receiving grade as first or second-round draft picks, which have historically faired well.
- Year 3: Hunter Renfrow delivered a 76.5 receiving grade along with a 23% TPRR (WR2) and 2.09 YPRR (WR2) as a rookie and then followed that up with a WR2 PFF receiving grade along with WR3 (20%) TPRR and YPRR (1.75) in his second season.
- Year 4: Tyler Lockett had a 75.8 grade as a rookie.
- Year 5: Mike Williams garnered WR2 receiving grades in his second (81.3) and third seasons (75.6) along with a WR3 YPRR in Year 3 (1.91). DeVante Parker posted a WR2 grade (76.2) in Year 2 and followed that up with a WR3 TPRR in Year 4.
After adjusting for the talent profile signals, 28 of 35 breakouts (80%) offered a leading signal.
Key takeaways:
- Previous fantasy finishes are the best way to find potential breakout WR1s and WR2s.
- Utilizing key talent-profile data can help us identify breakouts without previous WR2 and WR3 finishes.
2023 Breakout WR Candidates
Tier 1
The WRs in Tier 1 have strong talent profiles plus an opportunity to earn ample volume in their respective offenses.
Garrett Wilson | Year 2 | Jets
Wilson was the overall fantasy WR21 last season with an average of 12.8 PPR points per game (PPG). His 85.9 PFF receiving grade was also the fifth-highest by a rookie since 2011. Here are his rookie-season comps:
- Odell Beckham Jr. (91.2)
- Justin Jefferson (90.5)
- Terry McLaurin (86.5)
- Michael Thomas (86.3)
His 23% TPRR and 1.85 YPRR were WR2 and WR3-worthy, respectively, so Wilson is definitely worthy of his current second-round ADP in fantasy heading into 2023.
Chris Olave | Year 2 | Saints
Olave delivered a top-24 WR finish last season with a 26% TPRR (WR1-worthy), 2.42 YPRR (WR1-worthy), and an 82.9 PFF receiving grade (elite for a rookie). To put his rookie season into perspective, here are the other WRs who've managed to put up similar numbers across those three categories as rookies:
- Justin Jefferson
- A.J. Brown
- Ja’Marr Chase
- Odell Beckham Jr.
- Doug Baldwin
Oct 2, 2022; London, United Kingdom; New Orleans Saints wide receiver Chris Olave (12) catches the ball as Minnesota Vikings safety Camryn Bynum (24) and linebacker Eric Kendricks (54) defend in the fourth quarter during an NFL International Series game at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. The Vikings defeated the Saints 28-25. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Some are worried that Michael Thomas will hold the young stud back, but don’t count me as one of them.
Olave looks like a heat-seeking missile aimed at WR1 stardom.
Tee Higgins | Year 4 | Bengals
Higgins already has a WR3, WR2, and WR2 finish in his first three NFL seasons and plays on a pass-first offense with one of the best young QBs in the league.
Although his PFF receiving grades, TPRR, and YPRR marks thus far in Higgins's career are closer to a WR3 than a WR1, the presence of Chase is a mitigating factor.
Either way, T.Y. Hilton also started his career with a WR3, WR2, and WR2 finish and then popped a WR1 campaign in Year 4, so Chase being there doesn't necessarily preclude Higgins from a WR1 finish in 2023.
Tier 2
The WRs in Tier 2 have talent profiles that rival the Tier 1 WRs, but they have multiple question marks surrounding their offensive environments.
Christian Watson | Year 2 | Packers
Watson battled injuries early in 2022, but once he took on a full-time role in Week 10, his average target share was 23%, and he averaged a WR1-worthy 17.2 PPR PPG. Watson doesn’t have the same draft pedigree as Wilson, Olave, or London, but his 77.8 PFF receiving grade and 2.26 YPRR as a rookie point to similar upside.
Jan 8, 2023; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; Green Bay Packers wide receiver Christian Watson (9) is tackled by Detroit Lions cornerback Amani Oruwariye (24) after making a reception at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Tork Mason/USA Today NETWORK-Wisconsin
There is a little more risk with Watson due to his smaller sample size, but he has the speed to score a TD from anywhere on the field. If the Packers make him the centerpiece of the passing attack with additional easy looks via schemed targets around the line of scrimmage, Watson could go nuclear.
Of course, the risk is that the Packers will have to see if Jordan Love can fill the large pair of shoes left by Aaron Rodgers.
Jerry Jeudy | Year 4 | Broncos
Jeudy delivered his first relevant fantasy finish last year with a WR3 campaign. He also set career-highs in PFF receiving grade (77.9), TPRR (22%), and YPRR (2.18). However, Jeudy already had two prior WR3 TPRR finishes and a WR3 YPRR finish on his resume.
If Sean Payton can improve this Denver offense even a little bit, Jeudy has WR1 upside in fantasy.
Last year when healthy, Jeudy already flashed the type of upside fantasy managers hoped for when the Broncos took him in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft.
Drake London | Year 2 | Falcons
London delivered a WR3 fantasy finish as a rookie despite having played in a run-heavy offense with major QB challenges.
His 27% TPRR rivaled names like Chase and Jefferson, and in spite of his QB inaccuracy woes, London still came through with a 2.07 YPRR and an 85.3 PFF receiving grade, neither of which is easy to accomplish.
There's a chance London could still be the best WR from a loaded 2022 draft class, but he will have to once again overcome the Falcons' run-first offense in 2023.
Brandon Aiyuk | Year 3 | 49ers
Aiyuk’s 22%, 17%, and 21% TPRR numbers are really good once you factor in the high-end target earners he must battle for targets in San Francisco in Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey.
His 80.8, 76.0 and 80.9 PFF receiving grades also tell us that Aiyuk has WR2 talent with WR1 upside in fantasy.
If I were running the 49ers and had to choose one skill position player to keep moving forward, Aiyuk would be the guy given his diverse skillset and age. Unfortunately, he will need help to break out in 2023 due facing heavy target competition on a run-first offense.
Michael Pittman | Year 4 | Colts
Pittman has two WR2 finishes in his first three seasons. He bombed in his rookie season, but his WR2-worthy PFF receiving grade (79.9) and a WR2-worthy TPRR (22%) in Year 2 were both encouraging.
However, last season, Pittman's talent profile looked more like a WR3, and he could face QB accuracy challenges with a rookie under center in Anthony Richardson, and the Colts could be a top-five run unit that doesn't air the ball out much in 2023.
Tier 3
The WRs in Tier 3 haven’t posted dominant finishes, nor do they have the underlying talent data, but these WRs have flashed in small sample sizes.
Treylon Burks | Year 2 | Titans
The addition of DeAndre Hopkins caps Burks's target upside, but there's still a lot to like about the second-year WR.
Burks delivered a WR2-worthy PFF receiving grade (73.9) and reached WR3 thresholds in TPRR (21%) and YPRR (1.75) as a rookie. He also offers big-play ability and is a perfect fit for the heavy play-action attack that Tennessee will deploy in 2023.
Jahan Dotson | Year 2 | Commanders
Dotson delivered 18.0, 15.9, 3.0, and 13.3 fantasy points in his first four games as a rookie before missing time. However, he got hot again down the stretch, averaging 12.6 PPR PPG after taking on a full-time role in Week 13.
Dec 24, 2022; Santa Clara, California, USA; Washington Commanders wide receiver Jahan Dotson (1) makes a catch against San Francisco 49ers cornerback Deommodore Lenoir (38) during the second quarter. The play got called back due to penalties on both teams during the second quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports
His low 15% TPRR and 1.39 YPRR are concerns, but Dotson delivered a 74.0 PFF receiving grade in his first season. Additionally, after regaining his starting role in Week 13, Dotson averaged a 23% target share from then on.
Jameson Williams | Year 2 | Lions
We don’t have much information on Williams after he missed most of his rookie season due to recovery from his ACL tear, but he still has first-round draft capital. The speedy WR would have scored as a top-three prospect in the 2023 draft class were it not for the injury.
We'll have to wait until Week 7 at the earliest to see Williams in real game action again, but he has the upside to make noise over the second half of the 2023 season and possibly in the fantasy playoffs.
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Tier 4
The WRs in Tier 4 haven’t proven their ability to post fantasy-relevant seasons, and their underlying data offers mixed signals.
George Pickens | Year 2 | Steelers
Pickens’s highlight reel is breathtaking. He's one of those players where the argument to just “watch the film” is 100% applicable. You can’t dismiss his ability to make plays, especially on contested passes and downfield plays.
Jan 8, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver George Pickens (18) catches a pass for a two point conversion as Cleveland Browns cornerback Greg Newsome II applies coverage during the fourth quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports
His 69.3 PFF receiving grade was decent, but unfortunately, Pickens's 14% TPRR and 1.38 YPRR as a rookie weren’t even WR5-worthy.
So, are you a film guy or a stats guy? It's dealer’s choice on Pickens.
Gabriel Davis | Year 4 | Bills
We are three seasons in, and Davis has one WR3-worthy PFF receiving grade. Outside of that, all of his numbers have been just WR5 or WR6-worthy.
On top of that, Davis's best fantasy finish is as a WR4, and he's just a 16 to 18% TPRR player. Still, Davis plays in a pass-first offense with a great QB who can maximize his ability to make plays downfield, so he still has WR3 upside with some TD luck.
Elijah Moore | Year 3 | Browns
Moore flashed as a rookie with a WR2-worthy PFF receiving grade, WR2-worthy TPRR (24%), and a WR3-worthy YPRR (1.75). He was just a fantasy WR5 that season but delivered WR23, WR36, WR1, WR19, WR3, WR39 and WR10 finishes from Week 7 to Week 13 before an injury ended his season.
Unfortunately, everything fell apart for Moore last year. He fell out of favor with the Jets' coaching staff, and none of his underlying data eclipsed a WR6-worthy grade.
Moore has a wide range of outcomes in 2023, but if he can regain his rookie form alongside a resurgent Deshaun Watson, Moore could more than pay off his current Round 8 price tag.
Rashod Bateman | Year 3 | Ravens
Bateman was originally in Tier 3 before landing on the PUP to start training camp. He only participated in 21% of the Ravens’ passing plays last year due to injury but flashed a 23% TPRR and 2.38 YPRR. If reports are favorable, Bateman might return to Tier 3 status as the preseason progresses.
Nico Collins | Year 3 | Texans
Collins made big strides in Year 2, posting a WR3-worthy PFF receiving grade and a WR2-worthy 22% TPRR, though his 1.68 YPRR was just WR4-worthy. It's also a good sign that Collins earned a 24% target share in 2022 even when playing alongside Brandin Cooks.
Skyy Moore | Year 2 | Chiefs
Moore only delivered a 23% route participation as a rookie last season despite the Chiefs' lack of reliable WRs. Historically, the odds aren’t good for a player with this archetype, but Moore did deliver a 70.0 PFF receiving grade and a 19% TPRR (both WR4-worthy).
Ultimately, Moore makes it into Tier 4 thanks to the upside of whoever can earn the bulk of the targets in a dynamic Kansas City offense with the best QB in the NFL. However, the likelihood of a breakout season for Moore isn’t very strong.
Kadarius Toney | Year 3 | Chiefs
Like Moore, Toney also failed to secure significant playing time last year with the Chiefs despite their need for someone to step up. He was electric when on the field with a 23% TPRR though, and Toney can take over the Mecole Hardman role and potentially build a larger role.
Of course, the key is that he must stay healthy.
Unfortunately, his status for Week 1 is already in question after an injury on the first day of training camp that required surgery to clean up cartilage.
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