Free agency and the NFL Draft have come and gone. It’s time to fully embrace the 2023 offseason by breaking down the fantasy football aspirations of each and every team before draft season truly gets underway.
What follows is a fantasy-focused breakdown of the San Francisco 49ers, looking at key questions like:
- Does Brock Purdy have what it takes to provide fantasy upside on this loaded offense?
- Should Christian McCaffrey be the No. 1 overall fantasy selection in 2023 drafts?
- Is there enough volume on the table for Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle to boom in fantasy land?
Every fantasy-relevant player from the 49ers will be covered in the following paragraphs. Make sure to check out the Fantasy Life Team Preview Landing Page through the end of June for more all-encompassing fantasy football coverage.
Notable Offseason Moves
From the front office to the coaching staff to the roster, every NFL team will be different in 2023 compared to their respective 2022 version.
Head coach Kyle Shanahan is back for his seventh year leading the 49ers, and there is no official offensive coordinator since Shanahan has been calling his own plays since the departure of Mike McDaniel.
There have certainly been more than a few instances of a WR or TE balling out in Shanahan’s well-schemed system, but the 43-year-old coach has never forgotten his roots and continues to run the damn ball more than the NFL average.
- 2022: -4.4% pass rate over expected (22nd)
- 2021: -6.5% (31st)
- 2020: -4.7% (27th)
- 2019: -5.8% (29th)
- 2018: -3% (25th)
- 2017: -0.6% (13th)
Shanahan’s offensive wizardry can sometimes be a bit overstated considering that he’s “only” led five top-10 scoring units since 2008, but it’s still hard to believe that there won’t be at least a few high-end fantasy producers on the 49ers in 2023 considering the overwhelming amount of talent they have.
Additionally, San Francisco has made plenty of changes to their roster since the beginning of free agency. The following QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs have either joined or left the 49ers in some way, shape, or form this offseason:
- QB: Longtime starter Jimmy Garoppolo took his talents to the Raiders, and emergency backup Josh Johnson signed with the Ravens (again). This led the 49ers to bring in Sam Darnold on a one-year, $4.5 million deal and Brandon Allen on a one-year, $1.23 million deal.
- RB: None
- WR: The team’s only free agent WR transaction was bringing in former Chiefs and Titans WR Chris Conley on a one-year, $1.317 million contract with just $400,000 guaranteed.
- TE: Backup Tyler Kroft departed for Miami.
Alabama TE Cameron Latu (3.101) was the team’s only fantasy-relevant selection in the top-three rounds of the NFL Draft if you don’t count kickers (I don’t). The 49ers also drafted Oklahoma TE Brayden Willis (7.247) and Michigan WR Ronnie Bell (7.253) on Day 3 of the draft, but the history of draft capital makes it tough to expect much fantasy upside out of either of these rookies.
QBs
- Brock Purdy (Ian’s QB28)
- Trey Lance (QB33)
- Sam Darnold (QB35)
General manager John Lynch has called Purdy the “leader in the clubhouse” to start in 2023. Purdy's offseason recovery has reportedly been going rather splendidly, and he can potentially be cleared by August 21st for a full return and be good to go for Week 1.
We’ll move forward under the assumption that Purdy is the 49ers’ starting QB this coming season, as he certainly earned this distinction based on his play down the stretch last season:
- EPA per dropback: +0.2 (No. 5)
- Completion percentage over expected: -0.8% (No. 31)
- Pro Football Focus (PFF) passing grade: 74.2 (No. 13)
- Yards per attempt: 8.1 (No. 3)
- Adjusted completion rate: 77.7% *No. 8)
The talented sophomore threw for multiple TDs in each of his first seven extended appearances, ripping off QB8, QB15, QB13, QB11, and QB5 weekly fantasy finishes in his five regular season starts.
Yes, there were plenty of examples featuring brilliant play designs that led to wide-open targets. And yes, Purdy demonstrated the ability to create out of structure, making a few plays that add credence to the idea that he can be more than just a game manager like Garoppolo was.
Still, Purdy’s season-long 29-37-2 rushing line indicates that there might not be much of a fantasy-friendly rushing floor or ceiling here. That will require 2022 Mr. Irrelevant to be one of the league’s more-efficient passers in order to achieve anything close to high-end fantasy success.
Ultimately, Purdy is someone who will vie for mid-tier fantasy QB2 production in a tier that includes guys like Jared Goff and Derek Carr. The lack of fantasy-friendly volume in both the run and pass game will likely prevent Purdy from flirting with too high of a fantasy ceiling, but his lowly QB26 ADP makes him a prime late-round (sometimes even last-round) value in best ball for teams looking to add a late QB2 or QB3 option.
September 18, 2022; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Trey Lance (5) during the first quarter against the Seattle Seahawks at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
If Lance or Darnold were to win the starting job instead, they would actually profile as superior fantasy assets considering that both would have more rushing upside than Purdy. Lance has ripped off 7-41-0, 16-89-0, 8-31-0, and 13-54-0 rushing lines in four career games where he's played the majority of the snaps, and Darnold has put together a surprisingly solid rushing mixtape over the years.
Neither Lance nor Darnold needs to be drafted as anything more than a late-round best ball dart without a clear path to the starting job, but just realize that rushing QBs are a helluva drug in fantasy land and have more league-winning upside than pocket passers like Purdy.
RBs
- Christian McCaffrey (Ian’s RB1)
- Elijah Mitchell (RB42)
McCaffrey's usage before and after his trade from Carolina to San Francisco was virtually identical when accounting for the additional scoring opportunities he saw with the 49ers. He averaged 17.5 expected PPR points per game (PPG) in Weeks 1 to 6 with the Panthers compared to 18.3 PPR PPG from Week 7 through the NFC Championship game with the 49ers.
A slightly reduced pass-game role in San Francisco wasn’t enough to stop McCaffrey from racking up all kinds of fantasy points, as he scored an absurd 13 total TDs in 14 games with the 49ers (including the postseason).
The only real concern for McCaffrey heading into 2023 is that a healthier overall backfield could lead to slightly less ridiculous weekly snap counts. While McCaffrey cleared the 70% snap threshold in 57% of his games after joining the 49ers, he failed to clear that mark even once in essentially the only three games he played with a healthy Mitchell.
Shanahan probably doesn’t plan on having McCaffrey flirt with 400 touches in 2023, and that’s okay! Historically, one target is worth about 2.7 carries in terms of expected PPR points, and San Francisco proved willing to feature McCaffrey as one of the offense’s top pass-game options. In five games with a healthy Purdy and Deebo Samuel, here were the target totals for the 49ers' pass-catchers:
- Deebo Samuel: 34
- Brandon Aiyuk: 26
- Christian McCaffrey: 26
- George Kittle: 21
- Jauan Jennings: 15
While Shanahan hasn’t always featured a single workhorse RB in his offense, guys like Steve Slaton, Alfred Morris, Devonta Freeman, and Carlos Hyde all received enough usage to easily notch top-10 fantasy RB production in PPR PPG.
McCaffrey will be 27 years old by the time the season rolls around, but nothing about his 2022 performance indicated a decline in on-field performance. Continue to fire up the NFL’s all-time RB1 in PPR PPG as just that thanks to his lead-back status on one of the NFL’s best-schemed offenses.
The only difference between 2023 and past seasons is that I would rather take the top-four WRs in Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, Cooper Kupp, and Tyreek Hill before McCaffrey due to the aforementioned worrisome splits when Mitchell is also active.
Speaking of Mitchell, the 2021 sixth-round pick racked up at least nine touches in all five of his healthy-ish games alongside McCaffrey. He doesn’t have enough pass-game involvement to warrant much standalone value, but there’s plenty of handcuff upside here, as evidenced by his six top-15 PPR RB finishes in 11 regular season games back in 2021.
McCaffrey averaged more yards after contact per carry, explosive plays per rush, and forced missed tackles, but Mitchell was far from a liability in the run game. He and McCaffrey were both similarly efficient on the ground at 4.9 yards per carry last season, so the 49ers could feel comfortable having Mitchell spell McCaffrey on early downs on some series.
Currently going off the board as the RB41 (123rd overall), Mitchell is a worthwhile late-round pick and especially enticing for zero-RB fanatics. Mitchell is the cheapest piece of the 49ers offense, generally being selected after the top-16 QBs, top-55 WRs, and top-10 TEs in ADP.
You can take a few shots on Mitchell in the double-digit rounds on Underdog Fantasy, where you can also get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up below!
WRs
- Deebo Samuel (Ian’s WR18)
- Brandon Aiyuk (WR26)
- Jauan Jennings (WR116)
- Danny Gray (WR130)
Hamstring, ankle, and knee injuries certainly hindered Samuel’s 2022 campaign, but he wasn't particularly productive early in the season even prior to his Week 7 hamstring injury. From Weeks 1 to 7 last year, Samuel was just the WR18 in PPR PPG, and he finished as the WR28 in PPR PPG on the season.
While Samuel’s overall usage in 2022 didn’t change all that much from 2021, his efficiency and production both regressed:
- 2022: 13.5 expected PPR PPG (WR21), -2.9 PPR points below expectation (129th)
- 2021: 15.0 expected PPR PPG (WR14), +98.5 PPR points above expectation (1st)
Samuel averaged an absurd 18.2 yards per reception to go along with an unsustainable 59-365-8 rushing line during his 2021 breakout campaign. Although he still led the NFL in yards after the catch per reception last season, a different offensive dynamic led to Samuel's average depth of target (aDOT) cratering from 8.6 to 4.5 yards.
His carries per game also went from 3.8 before the trade for McCaffrey to just 3.2 after McCaffrey joined the team. Extra carries are fine and dandy, and fantasy managers will take all the touches they can get. Still, targets remain far superior if the conversation comes down targets OR carries vs. targets AND carries.
This 49ers offense is absolutely loaded and doesn’t need to force feed any one playmaker. Samuel will still make plenty of great plays – he’s a great football player after all – but he’ll need to once again go Super Saiyan to make up for another potential WR3-level workload. That makes it tough to prioritize Samuel with his ADP in the mid WR2 range.
As for Aiyuk, his 2022 route-running mixtape was as good as anyone out there. The man seriously has a Davante Adams-vibe to his game at some points.
Aiyuk’s 78-1,015-8 receiving line was good for career-best marks across the board, but it's worth noting that he did benefit from Samuel having missed four games last season.
I agree with the idea that Aiyuk is truly one of the best under-25 real-life options at the position, but unfortunately, we are talking about FANTASY football, where volume does matter.
Fantasy Life projections currently have Aiyuk seeing just 99 targets in 2023. This average of just 5.8 targets per game has historically been a no-go at the WR position when looking for top-24 PPR production:
- Only 2018 Tyler Lockett (4.4 targets per game, WR23 PPR PPG), 2016 Tyreek Hill (5.2, WR21), and 2017 JuJu Smith-Schuster (5.6, WR13) posted top-24 fantasy numbers with fewer targets per game than Aiyuk's projected 5.8.
- Average targets per game from a top-24 WR over the past 10 years was 8.8 with a median of 8.7.
- The standard deviation of the group is 1.4, meaning that 95% of the top-24 sample averaged between 6.0 and 11.6 targets per game.
Jan 1, 2023; Paradise, Nevada, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk (11) makes a catch against the Las Vegas Raiders during the second half at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
Luckily, Aiyuk (WR29 ADP) isn’t being priced as a true WR2. However, history tells us that his projected volume will prevent him from truly booming without an injury to at least one of his fellow 49ers pass-catchers.
I don’t mind taking shots on Aiyuk since other WRs in this ADP range, like Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Michael Pittman, have similar volume concerns. Still, it's really tough to see a big bull case for Aiyuk on this crowded San Francisco offense. Check out this recent podcast between myself and Fantasy Life’s Chris Allen to hear about some better late-round darts with non-contingency upside.
49ers WRs not named Aiyuk or Samuel combined for just two weekly top-24 PPR WR finishes last season, and none had a weekly finish higher than WR17. Even in the event of an injury to either Aiyuk or Samuel, target volume would likely get focused even more on McCaffrey or Kittle, so there's not much upside for Jennings or Gray even at their super-late, undrafted ADPs.
TEs
- George Kittle (Ian’s TE5)
- Cameron Latu (TE76)
Credit to Kittle for making the most out of his opportunities during the stretch – he’s really good at football – but like Samuel, Kittle needs to play like a complete world-beater in order to maintain top-three fantasy TE production to make up for lack of volume.
In 2022, Kittle was just the TE12 in expected PPR PPG despite his finish as the TE2 in actual PPR PPG. The only TE even close to Kittle in terms of fantasy points above expectation last year (+55) was Taysom Hill (+43.8), who I maintain shouldn’t even be listed as a TE in the first place.
The case for Kittle in 2023 is that he’s capable of boom weeks that others at the TE position simply can't match. The only TEs with more top-six fantasy finishes than Kittle's 12 over the last two seasons are Travis Kelce (22) and Mark Andrews (16). Together, the trio has combined for 50 top-six fantasy TE finishes, which accounts for 27.5% of the entire sample.
If aliens ever invaded the planet and forced humans to play them in one game of football to decide the fate of humanity, with all due respect to Kelce, I'd be calling up Kittle.
It’s a good idea to have incredible real-life players on your fantasy football team, but Kelce has been the fantasy TE1 for a reason: volume. Kittle’s volume deficiencies are enough to keep him out of my top-three ranked fantasy TEs for 2023. Although I've drafted my fair share of Kittle in best ball at the 5th-6th round turn, I still tend to go with Darren Waller, who's generally available two rounds later.
2023 Win Total: 10.5
- +125 on the under
The 49ers (+900) join the Bengals (+900), Bills (+800), Eagles (+700), and Chiefs (+650) as the top-five teams entering the season in terms of best Super Bowl odds.
This comes despite obviously being the only team in the group without a clear-cut stud QB under center. While Purdy played at a high level during his brief stretch as the starter in his rookie year, assuming that he can match the same elite level of play as QBs like Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Patrick Mahomes is probably a bit premature.
On defense, San Francisco has ranked among the top-five units in fewest yards allowed to opponents in each of the last four years, and the 49ers' defense has ranked among the top-10 units in fewest points allowed in three of the last four seasons. This menacing defense led by Nick Bosa has undoubtedly been the backbone of 49ers teams that have won 13, 10, six, and 13 games, respectively, since 2019.
Ultimately, I’m going to take under 10.5 wins for the 49ers in 2023, especially at plus odds, but this is one of my lower confidence picks of the series thus far. Their 2023 schedule after winning the division last year and lack of a proven QB room are big enough deterrents to suggest that the 49ers might take a slight step back after their dominant run in 2022.
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