Dwain McFarland's 2023 RB Tiers

Ranking players by position is integral to fantasy football preparation, but grouping them into tiers is crucial to identifying the value you might be leaving in the draft room. 

For example, if you're on the clock and looking at several quarterbacks in the same tier, waiting until the next round could make sense—someone equally as worthy may be available with your next pick. Tiers can also help group players with similar expectations based on upside and floor, which is great for spotting overpriced players, values, and arbitrage plays.

There are eight primary criteria used to create running back tiers:

• Rushing pedigree: Recent attempt shares and short-down-distance (SDD), which provides a larger sample size than attempts inside the five but correlates strongly (excludes games missed)
• Rushing performance peripherals: PFF rushing grade, missed tackles forced per attempt, yards after contact per attempt, and explosive rush rate (10-plus-yard attempts)
• Target pedigree: Recent adjusted routes per dropback, target share, and targets per route run (target share excludes games missed)
• Receiving performance peripherals: PFF receiving grade, yards per route run, and explosive play rate (15-plus-yard receptions)
• Offense quality: Projected team wins (winning teams typically score more, and passing YPA correlates strongly to wins)
• Rushing volume: Projected team rush attempts per game (excludes overtime)
• Attempt and target competition: Number of teammates with a significant ADP (running backs with a top-48 ADP; wide receivers with a top-36 ADP plus tight ends with a top-12 ADP)
• Player average draft position (ADP)

Pedigree focuses on a player’s ability to generate rushing attempts or targets, while the performance peripherals are all about how well they maximize those touches. Offensive quality, rushing volume, and competition are all designed to tease out the team environment.

The ultimate options are running backs who play on all downs, create on their own and reside on high-quality offenses. After that, every tier is some variation of strengths vs. weaknesses in the profile. ADP is a final check against the current market sentiment that helps us extract maximum value from our selections.

Each back’s pedigree and performance peripherals are graded compared to historical RB1, RB2, and RB3 finishes over the last three seasons using PPR scoring.

• RB1-worthy: 1 to 12
• RB2-worthy: 13 to 24
• RB3-worthy: 25 to 36

ADP = Underdog (best ball, half-point PPR)

Tier 1

Christian McCaffrey | 49ers

• Rushing profile: RB2-worthy pedigree; RB2-worthy performance peripherals
• Receiving profile: RB1-worthy target pedigree; RB1-worthy performance peripherals
• Size: Just big enough (200 pounds)
• Projected role: rotational early-down back with elite route utilization

McCaffrey remained among the best receiving backs in the NFL in 2022, delivering marks above the three-year average for fantasy RB1s in every critical data category.

CMC averaged a 46% rush share with the 49ers in the rushing department, which was below his bell-cow status in Carolina. His splits in six games with Elijah Mitchell (including the playoffs) were particularly alarming.

It is worth noting that McCaffrey was the lead option when games were close (within three points), with a 53% rush share versus 26% for Mitchell. However, when leading by four-plus points or more, CMC sagged to 18%. In winning scripts, McCaffrey could be in danger of losing reps.

The 27-year-old RB has some decent mileage on the tires with 1,468 regular season touches—including 1,025 rushing attempts. So, we could see the 49ers continue to rotate the veteran on early downs.

Ultimately, the 49ers' offense provides the opportunity for high-quality touches that can offset some of the volume loss. If he does find himself in a bell-cow role, he undoubtedly would have league-winning upside despite his high price tag. 

CMC averaged a whopping 24.9 points per game without Mitchell. However, given his mileage and the 16.7 point average with Mitchell, McCaffrey's profile has more downside than ever.

Those final factors make young stud WRs like Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase viable pivots to CMC in the top half of drafts. Additionally, CMC should be priced closer to Austin Ekeler.

Austin Ekeler | Chargers

• Rushing profile: RB2-worthy pedigree; RB2-worthy performance
• Receiving profile: RB1-worthy target pedigree; RB1-worthy performance
• Size: Just big enough
• Projected role: rotational early-down back + inside-five work; elite route utilization

No other RB with at least 250 routes demanded a higher TPRR than Ekeler’s 28% last season. The Chargers' back is an absolute stud in the receiving game on a pass-first offense that should keep the pedal to the metal this season under Kellen Moore.

He isn’t as efficient as the elite RB1s in the rushing department, but he should push for half of the rushing workload again. Most importantly, he has become a high-end rushing TD back thanks to his expanded role inside the five-yard line over the past two seasons. In his first four seasons, he never reached 40% but accounted for 73% and 61% of the attempts.

Jan 14, 2023; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Los Angeles Chargers running back Austin Ekeler (30) against the Jacksonville Jaguars during a wild card playoff game at TIAA Bank Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Ekeler will be 28 this season but has 268 fewer regular-season touches than McCaffrey and less competition in the backfield. The Chargers’ RB is a safer bet for 20-plus points per game but carries slightly less upside than CMC.

Ekeler is a steal in late Round 1 of Underdog drafts.

Tier 2

Bijan Robinson | Falcons

• Rushing profile: RB1-worthy pedigree; RB1-worthy performance
• Receiving profile: RB2-worthy pedigree; RB2-worthy performance
• Size: Prototype (215 lbs)
• Projected role: every-down back

The phrase “generational talent” has taken heat recently. However, don’t let that keep you from attaching that label to Robinson. The former five-star recruit is 100% deserving, given he is the only RB in our Rookie Super Model to earn a 100th-percentile score since 2017.

The list of backs to reach the 90th percentile or higher will make your palms sweat and lips tingle:

• Saquon Barkley: 95th
• Christian McCaffrey: 91st
• Jonathan Taylor: 91st
• Dalvin Cook: 91st
• Leonard Fournette: 91st
• Javonte Williams: 90th

Those backs posted a collective six top-six finishes in their first three seasons. The only back from that crew without a top-12 finish is Williams, who was on the verge of taking over the Broncos' backfield last year before his knee injury.

We should see another run-first attack in Atlanta with Arthur Smith at the helm. Smith was willing to ride his superstar RB Derrick Henry when he was in Tennessee.

However, there is some slight risk with Bijan as a Round 1 selection because Smith has also shown a willingness to rotate his other star offensive skill players—Drake London and Kyle Pitts.

Tyler Allgeier will battle for touches, and Cordarrelle Patterson is also hanging around, but expect Robinson to push for 65-70% of the work, and he could be the No. 3 option in the passing attack.

Jonathan Taylor | Colts

• Rushing profile: RB1-worthy pedigree; RB1-worthy performance
• Receiving profile: RB1-worthy pedigree; RB3-worthy performance
• Size: Prototype (227 pounds)
• Projected role: Every-down back

Taylor is one of the top rushers in the NFL. The 24-year-old RB has consistently delivered results close to the RB1 average for top-12 fantasy backs—even in 2022, as he battled through injuries.

With Nyheim Hines shipped to the Bills, we saw Taylor’s route participation explode to elite territory at 65%. However, his career 16% TPRR data falls in RB3 territory, and Anthony Richardson could often opt to scramble rather than check the ball down in 2023. Still, the Colts don’t have a high-end passing-down option to challenge Taylor for routes, so expect him to remain on the field in most scenarios.

Given the Colts' roster construction and their QB, we could see a run-heavy approach this season, where Taylor could push for 300 carries. Additionally, don’t be surprised if we see career-high efficiency with teams having to account for Richardson in the run game. Gus Edwards has reached five yards per carry every year playing with Lamar Jackson.

Taylor has RB1-overall upside and can be had in late Round 1 of redraft leagues and early Round 2 on Underdog.

Tony Pollard | Cowboys

• Rushing profile: RB2-worthy pedigree; RB1-worthy performance
• Receiving profile: RB2-worthy pedigree; RB1-worthy performance
• Size: Near prototype (209 lbs)
• Projected role: Near every-down back

We haven’t seen Pollard handle a full-time role yet, but he has RB1-worthy performance peripherals across the board.

Pollard registered 193 rushing totes last season, which he is sure to top given the Cowboys’ depth chart. Even if Dallas re-signs Ezekiel Elliott, the team will no longer need to save face by trying to make his role commensurate with his paycheck.

The 26-year-old back is a step below Ekeler and CMC in the receiving department but a cut above as a runner. With 250 attempts and 75 targets, he has the giddy-up to challenge for a top-three fantasy finish, and for some reason, you can grab him near the end of Round 2 in drafts.

Pollard is a HIGH PRIORITY target at ADP. Take advantage of the discount on Underdog Fantasy and get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 by signing up below!

Saquon Barkley | Giants

• Rushing profile: RB1-worthy pedigree; RB3-worthy performance
• Receiving profile: RB1-worthy pedigree; Borderline RB2-worthy performance
• Size: Prototype (235 lbs)
• Projected role: Every-down back

Barkley registered a career-high 295 rushing attempts last season as the Giants' do-it-all back. The 26-year-old back is a favorite to dominate the New York backfield again in 2023, but his efficiency numbers have decreased over the last two seasons.

Last year, his 2.8 YCO and 14% MTF landed in the RB3 range, while his explosive rush rate (11%) was RB2-worthy. Given the similarity to his 2021 numbers, we can no longer view Barkley as a high-end RB1 from a talent perspective. He should be a lock for passing downs again, which is the best part of his profile in PPR formats.

Jan 1, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley (26) carries the ball against the Indianapolis Colts during the first half at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

In addition to his deteriorating efficiency profile, New York placed the franchise tag on Barkley this offseason, but he is demanding a new contract, creating a potential holdout situation.

Barkley is more volume-dependent than ever and is going a tad too high in fantasy drafts as a late Round 1 to early Round 2 selection. Be willing to grab him if he slides, but he isn’t a priority option at ADP.

Tier 3

Nick Chubb | Browns

• Rushing profile: RB1-worthy pedigree; RB1-worthy performance
• Receiving profile: RB3-worthy pedigree; Backup-worthy performance
• Size: Prototype (227 lbs)
• Projected role: Lead early-down back with rotational pass duties

Chubb consistently places among the league's most talented runners every season, and 2022 was no different.

• PFF rush grade: 90.7 (2nd)
• MTF: 27% (2nd)
• YCO: 3.48 (7th)
• EXP: 15.6% (3rd)

Look for the 27-year-old to handle up to 70% of the team’s rushing workload with Kareem Hunt gone. Additionally, we could see Chubb set a record in route participation, which has always hindered him from elite overall profile status. 

Unfortunately, Chubb has never even reached RB3-worthy thresholds in TPRR or YPRR when allowed to play on pass downs. Demetric Felton is a receiving-style back that could steal looks, but Jerome Ford was not a target earner in college. 

Expectations should be managed if Chubb wins the passing-down snaps, but we could see him push for 50-55 targets with 60% route participation and a 12% TPRR (career average).

Chubb has three top-12 finishes in the last four seasons despite missing games and should see the largest workload of his career. He has top-six upside, making him an easy name to click in late Round 2 or early Round 3.

Josh Jacobs | Raiders

• Rushing profile: RB1-worthy pedigree; RB1-worthy performance
• Receiving profile: RB2-worthy pedigree; RB2-worthy performance
• Size: Prototype (220 lbs)
• Projected role: Near every-down back

Jacobs was an afterthought in fantasy drafts last season despite his Round 1 pedigree on a team with a pretty weak depth chart. However, there were concerns about his sub-par YCO and that Josh McDaniels was a known connoisseur of three-man backfields. 

Reminder: things can change fast in the NFL.

Jacobs set a career-high with 19.4 fantasy points per game, accounting for 81% of the Raiders’ rushing attempts and registering 52% route participation, which were also career-bests. Yeah, Jacobs’s YCO was slightly under the NFL average heading into 2022, but his MTF and explosive run rates were in line with RB1 profiles, and his TPRR was RB2-worthy. Shame on us…

Jacobs is a mid-second-round pick in re-draft and an early third in Underdog. Those are fine spots to take a swing.

Rhamondre Stevenson | Patriots

• Rushing profile: RB2-worthy pedigree; RB1-worthy performance
• Receiving profile: RB2-worthy pedigree; RB1-worthy performance
• Size: Prototype (229 lbs)
• Projected role: Near every-down back

Stevenson exploded in the passing game with the second-highest TPRR (26%) for RBs with at least 250 routes. While the Patriots' passing game struggled, Stevenson still delivered an RB1-worthy PFF receiving grade (68.0) and YPRR (1.24).

Oh wait, we aren’t done. Stevenson was also a beast on the ground with the No. 10 PFF rush grade, No. 19 MTF rate, No. 2 YCO, and No. 6 explosive run rate.

Bill Belichick is notorious for splitting up the backfield, which creates some risk, but it is priced into Stevenson’s Round 3 ADP. James Robinson has struggled the last two seasons, and no other Patriots backs are going inside the top-48 RBs.

Stevenson is a HIGH PRIORITY target in Round 3 of drafts—he has high-end RB1 upside and grades out more like a Round 2 value.

Breece Hall | Jets

• Rushing profile: RB1-worthy pedigree; RB1-worthy pedigree
• Receiving profile: RB1-worthy pedigree; RB1-worthy pedigree
• Size: Prototype (217 lbs)
• Projected role: Build up to every-down-back status

Hall would be graded inside the top-three backs if he wasn’t coming off of an ACL tear. Fortunately, many of the fantasy community's brightest injury minds believe Hall has the profile to recover quickly.

The 22-year-old’s NFL data sample is small, with only 221 snaps, but he smashed in every way possible.

If this were all we had to go on, it would be tough to get behind Hall, but he was a superb dual-threat producer in college as well. He delivered an 84th-percentile score in the Rookie Super Model, and 40% of backs above the 80th percentile produced a top-six finish by Year 3.

Nathaniel Hackett has a history of rotating backs which could show up early in the season as Hall gets going. Last year we saw a washed version of Melvin Gordon III spoil the Javonte Williams party (although the switch to Williams was in progress the week he was injured). 

There is a chance Michael Carter, Israel Abanikanda, or Bam Knight could carve out a role if they are hot early in the season, but we should see a Hall takeover by the time we are in the big-money weeks in our leagues—he is just too talented.

Hall could climb in ADP with more positive reports, so drafting him in Round 3 should be a priority for early drafters.

Derrick Henry | Titans

• Rushing profile: RB1-worthy pedigree; RB1-worthy performance
• Receiving profile: RB3-worthy pedigree; RB2/3-worthy performance
• Size: Prototype (247 lbs)
• Projected role: Lead early-down back with rotational pass-down duties

No projected starting RB has more wear-and-tear than Henry and his 1,877 regular season touches. However, his efficiency numbers held strong in 2022 despite the Titans’ QB struggles.

Henry set career-highs in TPRR, YPRR, and route participation (40%), which helped fuel 39 targets and 33 receptions—also career-bests. While those aren’t elite numbers, every little bit helps, and there is a chance he retains the role.

Third-round pick Tyjae Spears wasn’t a high-end target earner in college, but he was efficient, so he could challenge for passing work, but he isn’t a lock.

Dec 4, 2022; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry (22) against the Philadelphia Eagles during the second quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Heading into his age-29 season, given his career workload, Henry isn’t a priority in Round 3 of drafts. He is at the age where the cliff can hit quickly. However, he is worth mixing into your portfolio when he slides.

Tier 4

Jahmyr Gibbs | Lions

• Rushing profile: RB2-worthy pedigree; RB2-worthy performance
• Receiving profile: RB1-worthy pedigree; RB1-worthy performance
• Size: Just big enough (199 lbs)
• Projected role: Rotational early-down back with plus route utilization

We love RBs who can demand targets and create big plays—it is a recipe for success, as we have seen with McCaffrey, Kamara, and Ekeler. So does anyone care to guess who comps the closest to Kamara and CMC in the Rookie RB Super Model?

Yeah, you got it—Jahmyr friggin Gibbs.

While some will worry about Gibbs’s lack of a substantial rushing workload and his size at 199 pounds, the best path here is not to overthink things. Remember, Ekeler weighed 198, and CMC was 205 coming out of college.

After grabbing Gibbs at No. 12, the Lions traded away D’Andre Swift to the Eagles, opening the door for the Alabama rookie to capture the passing down role immediately. David Montgomery will challenge for early-down work in 2023, but Gibbs could play a role similar to Kamara and CMC in their rookie seasons. 

Kamara finished as the RB3, accounting for just 27% of the Saints’ rushing attempts but posting an 18% target share. McCaffrey finished as the RB9 while accounting for just 25% of the Panthers’ rushing attempts but garnered a 21% target share.

Gibbs is a HIGH PRIORITY target in early Round 4 of drafts.

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Najee Harris | Steelers

• Rushing profile: RB1-worthy pedigree; RB3-worthy performance
• Receiving profile: RB2-worthy pedigree; RB2-worthy performance
• Size: Prototype (242)
• Projected role: Lead early-down back with rotational passing-down duties

Harris profiles as a replacement-level NFL back (RB3). That makes him extremely volume- and environment-dependent. He doesn’t create big plays on his own (7% explosive rush rate), so to hit his TD upside, he needs the Steelers to play well.

He was the primary ball-handler inside the five-yard line last year, so the TDs could come with a better version of Pittsburgh’s offense. However, Jaylen Warren stole the long-down-distance (LDD) role last season, cutting Harris’s route participation to 47%. Warren was also the more efficient player, leaving the door open for an even larger role in 2023.

Harris is a volume-dependent back on a questionable offense that could cede more touches this season, making him a back to fade in Rounds 3 and 4 of fantasy drafts.

Aaron Jones | Packers

• Rushing profile: RB2-worthy pedigree; RB1-worthy performance
• Receiving profile: RB2-worthy pedigree; RB1-worthy performance
• Size: Near prototype (208 lbs)
• Projected role: Rotational early-down back with passing-down upside

Jones is the more talented back, but the Packers are committed to a rotation with A.J. Dillon. 

With second-round draft capital tied up in Dillon, that is unlikely to change, but predicting coaching behavior isn’t always easy—see Josh McDaniels and Josh Jacobs last year.

Ultimately, we are always looking for talented profiles like Jones to buy at a discount, and that is what we have with a Round 5 ADP on Underdog. If something happens to Dillon, Jones still has league-winning upside—it would be like drafting Pollard two rounds later.

Even at age 28, Jones has the dual-threat style profile that can thrive, making him a solid target in drafts at ADP—even as an RB1 in zero-RB builds.

Tier 5

Travis Etienne | Jaguars

• Rushing profile: RB2-worthy pedigree; RB1-worthy performance
• Receiving profile: RB1-worthy pedigree; backup-worthy performance
• Size: Prototype (215 lbs)
• Projected role: Lead early-down back with rotational passing-down duties

Etienne performed well on the ground last year, but he didn’t live up to expectations in the passing attack.

His 49.8 PFF receiving grade was the second-worst of any back with at least 250 routes. While the Jaguars’ depth chart isn’t loaded, there are some okay passing-down options, and it might not take much to push Etienne into the lesser portion of a rotation.

Third-round selection Tank Bigsby will challenge Etienne for early-down reps and could carve out work inside the five-yard line. The third-year back only punched in 23% of his totes inside the five last year—well below the 40% NFL average since 2007.

The Jaguars’ offensive arrow is pointed up, so if the 24-year-old back can overcome his woes, there is room for upside, but he is a tough selection to feel confident about in Round 3.

Kenneth Walker III | Seahawks

• Rushing profile: RB1-worthy pedigree; RB1-worthy performance
• Receiving profile: RB2-worthy pedigree; backup-worthy performance
• Size: Near prototype (211 pounds)
• Projected role: Rotational early-down back with limited passing-down work

Walker was a strong performer on the ground, but lacked sizzle in the passing attack.

If that isn’t enough to create concerns, the Seahawks added another Round 2 back via the draft in Zach Charbonnet. Charbonnet could immediately render Walker useless on passing downs and is also a threat to create an even split on the ground.

 How the coaches will ultimately divide the workload is anyone’s guess, but given the capital invested, we shouldn’t assume Walker has much of an edge, if any. 

Jan 14, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III (9) leaps into the end zone for a second quarter touchdown during a wild card game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Walker is not a target in Round 3 or Round 4 of drafts—he should only be taken at an ADP discount. The preference is to gobble up Charbonnet shares at a much lower cost (Round 9).

Miles Sanders | Panthers

• Rushing profile: RB2-worthy pedigree; RB1-worthy performance
• Receiving profile: RB2-worthy pedigree; backup-worthy performance
• Size: Near prototype (210 lbs)
• Projected role: Lead early-down option and rotational-passing down duties

Sanders had a good 2022 as a rusher but continued to play woefully in the passing game. 

There are rumors that the Panthers want to get him more involved in the passing attack, and they don’t have a strong WR room, so there is a chance for more check-downs. 

To be fair, the Eagles are loaded with great receiving weapons, and Jalen Hurts is willing to scramble rather than dump off the ball. However, expecting a giant leap as a receiver feels far-fetched—Sanders received the worst PFF receiving grade (35.5) out of all backs with at least 250 routes last year. The receiver primarily owns that data point.

We likely have an early-down banger on an offense with many question marks, which isn’t ideal for ceiling scenarios. His Round 5 price tag is more reasonable than similar profiles, but Sanders isn’t a priority target—especially if you already have an RB or two on the roster.

J.K. Dobbins | Ravens

• Rushing profile: RB3-worthy pedigree; RB2-worthy performance
• Receiving profile: RB3-worthy pedigree; backup-worthy performance
• Size: Prototype
• Projected role: Lead early-down option with limited passing-down role 

Dobbins wasn’t 100% in 2022, but he still managed to perform like an RB1 in the rushing department. However, he remained limited in the passing game.

If Dobbins returns to his 2020 form when he had a 27% MTF rate, 3.5 YCO, and 15% explosive rush rate, there is plenty of room for upside from his Round 5 ADP. If he can take over just half of the Ravens’ rushing work, he represents a Chubb/Henry arbitrage option multiple rounds later.

Tier 6

Dalvin Cook | Vikings

• Rushing profile: RB1-worthy pedigree; RB1/2-worthy performance
• Receiving profile: RB2-worthy pedigree; backup-worthy performance
• Size: Near prototype (210 lbs)
• Projected role: Lead early-down back and rotational passing-down duties

After 21.2 and 23.1 point-per-game campaigns in 2019 and 2020, Cook has slowed down over the last two seasons with outputs of 14.7 and 13.4. His efficiency as a runner has held firm, but his TPRR and YPRR numbers have tumbled since Justin Jefferson’s emergence.

The Vikings brought back Alexander Mattison on a two-year, $7M deal, and there have been rumors that Cook could be cut. However, the Vikings don’t have to wait until post-June 1st to designate him (see Ezekiel Elliott), so it is hard to say Cook will be gone.

The 28-year-old back’s current Round 6 price tag makes him an okay selection, but visualizing a ceiling outcome isn’t easy.

Joe Mixon | Bengals

• Rushing profile: RB1-worthy pedigree; backup-worthy performance
• Receiving profile: RB2-worthy pedigree; RB1-worthy performance
• Size: Prototype
• Projected role: Near every-down back

Mixon has the RB1-worthy utilization pedigree, but wow did his rushing performance take a dip in 2022.

Fortunately, he registered a career-high 79.5 PFF receiving grade and 23% TPRR. Mixon’s rushing profile has been at sub-RB3 levels since 2020, meaning if 2022 was just an aberration in the receiving game, it doesn’t bode well for 2023.

There is also a chance that Mixon faces a suspension from the NFL for his public menacing charges, which makes his situation even murkier. However, given the departure of Samaje Perine via free agency, the entire backfield is up for grabs in a high-octane offense, which makes Mixon an intriguing selection in Round 6—especially on zero-RB builds.

Tier 7

D’Andre Swift | Eagles

• Rushing profile: Borderline RB3-worthy pedigree; RB1-worthy performance
• Receiving profile: RB2-worthy pedigree; RB1-worthy performance
• Size: Prototype
• Projected role: Rotational early-down option with passing-down upside

Swift was never able to keep things going in Detroit, but his underlying talent profile still screams high-end RB1.

While his targets are a near lock to come down thanks to the elite receiving weapons in Philadelphia and Hurts’s propensity to scramble, these numbers can’t be ignored—they suggest a ceiling scenario similar to McCaffrey and Ekeler if everything suddenly breaks right for Swift.

Of course, the Eagles also added another efficiency phenom in Rashaad Penny, who has been one of the best early-down backs in the league when healthy.

Swift has the type of talent profile worth betting on in Round 6 and Round 7 of fantasy drafts. He has produced RB16, RB15, and RB21 finishes despite snap shares of 37%, 50%, and 34%. What he might give up in targets could be made up in TDs in the Eagles' offense.

Dameon Pierce | Texans

• Rushing profile: RB1-worthy pedigree; RB1-worthy performance
• Receiving profile: RB3-worthy pedigree; RB2-worthy performance
• Size: Prototype
• Projected role: Rotational early-down option with passing-down upside

Pierce flashed his ability as a rusher in his rookie season with the No. 1 MTF rate and the No. 9 YCO, while finishing as the No. 9 graded PFF runner (84.8). 

In the passing attack, he was RB2-worthy from a target-earning standpoint, and his 41% route participation put him in the RB3-worthy pedigree bucket. While his YPRR data wasn’t strong, it is hard to point the finger at Pierce, given how bad the Texans' passing attack fared.

Oct 9, 2022; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Houston Texans running back Dameon Pierce (31) runs with the ball defended by Jacksonville Jaguars safety Rayshawn Jenkins (2) in the fourth quarter at TIAA Bank Field. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Devin Singletary will battle for early-down snaps, but he has been subpar in the passing game for most of his career. That leaves Pierce in a solid spot to build on his rookie season as a receiver. He will need that in an offense that should continue to struggle to score points in 2023.

Cam Akers | Rams

• Rushing profile: RB2-worthy pedigree; RB3-worthy performance
• Receiving profile: backup-worthy pedigree; backup-worthy pedigree
• Size: Prototype
• Projected role: Lead early-down back

Akers continues to post subpar performance marks across the board.

In years past, this profile would get pushed too high in drafts with fantasy managers chasing a volume projection. However, drafters have become wiser, making Akers a Round 7 pick on Underdog. The Rams' depth chart isn’t stacked, but Akers is a candidate to lose work if he remains ineffective. 

The 24-year-old RB's best path to upside is a revitalized high-scoring Rams offense where he retains his role as the primary ball carrier inside the five-yard line. That scenario could lead to a double-digit TD season for Akers.

Rachaad White | Buccaneers

• Rushing profile: RB3-worthy pedigree; backup-worthy performance
• Receiving profile: RB2-worthy pedigree; borderline RB1-worthy performance
• Size: Prototype
• Projected role: Near every-down back 

White was borderline awful as a rusher in his rookie campaign, but the Buccaneers' backfield doesn’t offer much competition.

White was a plus-receiver in college and that data lines up with his borderline-RB1 performance data last season. While he could play his way into a committee on early downs in a potentially bad offense, his upside in the receiving department alone makes him worthy of Round 7 consideration.

Tier 8

James Cook | Bills

• Rushing profile: backup-worthy pedigree; RB1-worthy performance
• Receiving profile: RB2-worthy pedigree; RB1-worthy performance
• Size: Complementary (190 lbs)
• Projected role: secondary early-down back and lead passing-down option

Cook’s inability to push Singletary for more snaps last year was a bad look. His 26% rush share and 21% route participation tanked his pedigree scores. However, when he did get on the field, he crushed in all categories.

With Singletary gone, Cook will battle Damien Harris for early-down work and try to take over the majority of the passing-down snaps from Nyheim Hines.

In a pass-first offense without a clear No. 2 in the passing game, Cook carries upside as an explosive passing-down option in Round 8 of drafts.

Devon Achane | Dolphins

• Rushing profile: RB3-worthy pedigree; RB2-worthy performance
• Receiving profile: RB2-worthy pedigree; RB2-worthy performance
• Size: Complementary (188 lbs)
• Projected role: Rotational early-down and passing-down back

Some fantasy drafters will shy away from Achane due to his lack of size, as he weighed in at just 188 lbs. Given the lack of sub-190 pound RBs who've put up big fantasy seasons, it's a valid concern.

However, the Texas A&M product is a big play waiting to happen, as Achane's 20% explosive rush rate in college ranked in the 75th percentile and was second-best among the 2023 rookie RB class. 

Don’t let his size fool you: Achane is not a satellite back. He is a tough runner who can attack inside and outside, and he's a perfect fit with Mike McDaniel in Miami, whose RB depth chart lacks top-notch talent.

RBs who scored similarly to Achane in the Rookie Super Model have produced a top-six fantasy finish 32% of the time, and 63% have registered a top-24 fantasy campaign. 

Achane is another rookie we want to draft before his ADP creeps upward over the summer—he is a PRIORITY TARGET in Rounds 9 and 10.

Tier 9

Javonte Williams | Broncos

• Rushing profile: RB1-worthy pedigree; RB1-worthy performance
• Receiving profile: RB2-worthy pedigree; RB1-worthy performance
• Size: Prototype
• Projected role: TBD

Williams's numbers below are astronomical, but remember he only had 47 rushing attempts and 69 receiving snaps before his season was ended by an ACL, LCL, and PCL injury.

While recent reports have been more optimistic, we heard similar statements last year with Dobbins. The data suggests Williams won’t be ready for Week 1 and likely won’t be the same player again until 2024.

After last year’s Dobbins debacle, fantasy managers have adjusted expectations, allowing Williams to slide to Round 8. His ADP isn’t bad. The big question is, why should we draft Williams if we are confident his playing time will be reduced, AND he isn’t likely to regain his upside play-making ability for another season?

If we want some exposure hoping for an ADP rise on good news, it could make sense to grab a few Williams shares now, but making him a centerpiece of our draft plans at this juncture is risky.

You can take the flier and get some early exposure on Underdog Fantasy, where you can double your first deposit of up to $100 when you create a new account. Sign up below and start drafting today!

Alvin Kamara | Saints

• Rushing profile: RB1-worthy pedigree; RB3-worthy performance
• Receiving profile: RB1-worthy pedigree; RB1-worthy performance
• Size: Prototype
• Projected role: Rotational early-down and lead passing-down back

Kamara took a step back in the rushing efficiency department last season, and the Lions added Jamaal Williams in free agency plus Kendre Miller in the draft. Both will compete for early-down work.

Kamara still has a high-end RB1 receiving profile. Still, we don’t know how his legal situation will shake out. This is a pretty risky scenario that could lead to a suspension.

The 28-year-old RB could have value during the fantasy playoffs if he is forced to miss games early in the year. His Round 8 price tag is reasonable with the right team structure, but you need coverage early in the season in case he posts multiple zeroes.

Isiah Pacheco | Chiefs

• Rushing profile: RB2-worthy pedigree; borderline RB3-worthy performance
• Receiving profile: backup-worthy pedigree; backup-worthy pedigree
• Size: Prototype
• Projected role: Rotational early-down back with limited passing-down work 

Pacheco was below-average versus most RB3-level metrics across the board as a rookie.

The depth chart isn’t strong, but Jerrick McKinnon is a good bet to handle the passing-down work in the pass-first Chiefs offense, and we could see Clyde Edwards-Helaire in a rotation on early downs.

Pacheco is a fade at his current Round 6 and 7 ADP.

David Montgomery | Lions

• Rushing profile: RB2-worthy pedigree; borderline RB2-worthy performance
• Receiving profile: RB1-worthy pedigree; borderline RB2-worthy performance
• Size: Prototype
• Projected role: Rotational early-down and passing-down back 

Montgomery has always been good at avoiding tacklers; unfortunately, he spends too much time moving from east to west and not enough time getting downhill and gaining yardage.

He got a decent contract from Detroit and we will likely see him lead the way on early downs at the beginning of the season, but Gibbs should quickly take over the passing downs. Don’t be surprised if Montgomery also falls behind Gibbs in rushing attempts as the season progresses.

Montgomery is a fade at ADP.

James Conner | Cardinals

• Rushing profile: RB1-worthy pedigree; borderline RB3-worthy performance
• Receiving profile: RB1-worthy pedigree; RB3-worthy performance
• Size: Prototype
• Projected role: Near every-down back 

Conner is fading fast, but the Cardinals depth chart is one of the weakest in the NFL. The 28-year-old back could feasibly handle most of the work in an offense that could improve once Kyler Murray returns.

Rashaad Penny | Eagles

• Rushing profile: RB2-worthy pedigree; RB1-worthy performance
• Receiving profile: backup-worthy pedigree; backup-worthy performance
• Size: Prototype
• Projected role: Rotational early-down back 

Penny is an elite rusher when healthy. He could deliver Chubb-like value if he can take over the lead role on early downs. He isn’t likely to pass Swift or Kenneth Gainwell for passing duties, but that is okay in a top-notch offense like Philadelphia, where long runs and TDs could unlock fantasy value.

Penny is a priority target in Round 10.

Zach Charbonnet | Seahawks

• Rushing profile: RB1-worthy pedigree; RB2-worthy performance
• Receiving profile: RB2-worthy pedigree; RB3-worthy performance
• Size: Prototype
• Projected role: Rotational early-down and passing-down back 

Charbonnet has the size that NFL talent evaluators love and finished his career with 168 yards per game and 2.90 adjusted total yards per team attempt. From a best-season perspective, those marks were strong enough to rank first and second in the class.

The former four-star recruit demonstrated high-end elusiveness over his career with a 73rd-percentile missed tackles forced rate (0.23), and 17% of his totes went for 10-plus yards (69th percentile).

Look for Seattle’s latest second-rounder to battle last year’s second-rounder Kenneth Walker III for touches. Thanks to Charbonnet's more well-rounded game, we could see a split much closer than many expect. He could quickly take over passing downs and has the chops to force a two-person rotation on early downs.

Charbonnet is the preferred Seahawks back and priority target in Rounds 9 and 10.

A.J. Dillon | Packers

• Rushing profile: RB3-worthy pedigree; borderline RB3-worthy performance 
• Receiving profile: RB3-worthy pedigree; backup-worthy performance
• Size: Prototype
• Projected role: Rotational early-down back with limited passing-down duties 

Dillon was outperformed by Jones last season, but the Packers kept him in the rotation. Given his second-round draft capital and the same coaching staff, he will probably retain that role again in 2023.

The fourth-year RB will need to improve his game and the Packers will need to overachieve as on offense to unlock worthy stand-alone value. However, if Jones misses time, Dillon would get a shot to dominate the Packers’ backfield.

Brian Robinson | Commanders

• Rushing profile: RB2-worthy pedigree; borderline RB3-worthy performance
• Receiving profile: backup-worthy pedigree; backup-worthy performance
• Size: Prototype
• Projected role: Lead early-down back with limited passing-down duties 

Robinson handled 53% of the Commanders’ rushing attempts when in the lineup, but was below-average from a performance standpoint. However, he missed the first five games while recovering from gunshot wounds.

Antonio Gibson is the favorite to take passing-down work, and rookie RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. could challenge for early-down snaps if Robinson falters.

Nov 13, 2022; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears running back Khalil Herbert (24) during warmups before the game against the Detroit Lions at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

Tier 11

• Khalil Herbert | Bears – offers an RB1-worthy talent profile as a runner but performed like a backup in the receiving game. He will battle D’Onta Foreman and Roschon Johnson (plus Justin Fields) for rushing attempts.
• Samaje Perine | Broncos – backup level rusher, but has RB1-worthy receiving chops. With Williams recovering, he could handle a heavy workload early in the year, and Sean Payton is the master of RB targets. Priority draft target.
• Antonio Gibson | Commanders – still boasts an explosive RB1-worthy passing performance profile, and Robinson wasn’t great in the early-down role last year.
• Jerick McKinnon | Chiefs – the lead passing-down option on a pass-first offense with big upside. McKinnon offers an RB1-worthy receiving talent profile.
• Damien Harris | Bills – could lock down the early-down role, but not likely to see much passing game work. The upside scenario comes from a double-digit rushing TD season. The Bills' offense is good enough, but they love to pass, and Josh Allen will snipe.
• Jamaal Williams | Saints – lead candidate to handle the early-down work and could see a big workload if Kamara misses time due to suspension. However, his talent profile screams backup-level RB. Kendre Miller might surprise.

Tier 12

• Elijah Mitchell | 49ers – RB1-worthy performance profile rushing, but stuck behind CMC. Could provide a few spike weeks and offers contingency upside if McCaffrey misses time.
• Alexander Mattison | Vikings – borderline RB1-worthy performance profile and could surprise if Dalvin Cook moves on. Given Cook's recent regression, Mattison could also push for more of the early-down work.
• Tyler Allgeier | Falcons – got going late last season and posted RB1-worthy performance data with a 24% MTF and 3.6 YCO. He wasn’t a factor in the passing game. In a run-first offense, he could have spike week value and offers contingency upside if Robinson misses time.
• Jaylen Warren | Steelers – limited sample, but RB1-worthy performance profile as a runner and receiver. Last year, he took over LDD work. His profile suggests he might be better than Harris, and he has a clear-cut path to an every-down role should Harris suffer an injury. ADP is too low—a priority draft target.

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Tier 13

• Roschon Johnson | Bears – explosive runner in college who will fight for reps in the Chicago rotation.
• D’Onta Foreman | Bears – posted RB3-worthy rushing performance numbers but wasn’t good enough to run away with the job in Carolina. Backup-level option in the receiving game.
• Raheem Mostert | Dolphins – registered RB1-worthy rushing performance numbers but will be 31 this season, and Miami resigned Jeff Wilson and added Achane in the draft. He has spike-week upside in a rotation but has high-end RB2 contingency value if injuries thin the depth chart.
• Jeff Wilson Jr. | Dolphins – borderline RB2 rushing profile and a backup-worthy receiving performance profile. Battling in a committee.

Tier 14

• Kendre Miller | Saints – rookie could challenge Jamaal Williams for the lead early-down role, given how poor Williams graded out as a rusher. He offers additional value if Kamara is suspended.
• Tyjae Spears | Titans – the clear-cut No. 2 behind an aging Henry in a run-first offense. The third-round pick is a priority target in later rounds.
• Tank Bigsby | Jaguars – third-round rookie could battle for short yardage work in an ascending offense from the jump. If Etienne goes down, he would be the favorite to lead the backfield. Priority draft target.
• Devin Singletary | Texans – RB2-worthy performance as a rusher but not a factor in the passing attack. Texans might not be very good, but Singletary likely rotates and is the clear-cut No. 2.
• Chase Brown | Bengals – the coaching staff is talking up Trayveon Williams, but he hasn’t shown much, and my money is on Brown leading the backfield if Mixon is suspended or goes down.

Tier 15

• Leonard Fournette | Free Agent – backup-worthy rushing performance profile, but RB1-worthy receiving profile. Demonstrated pedigree as a high-volume runner and passing-down option. The most complete free agent back.
• Kareem Hunt | Free Agent – took a step back in efficiency in 2022, but as recently as 2021, had a high-end receiving profile. He will be 28 but doesn’t have a ton of touches.
• Ezekiel Elliott | Free Agent – the worst option of the remaining free agents. Zeke registered backup-level performance scores across the board. He might steal some early-down work somewhere, but it is hard to imagine much upside without the perfect landing spot where he can punch in a dozen TDs.

Tier 16

• Zach Evans | Rams – doesn’t carry the same draft capital as Spears and Bigsby (Round 6), but the former five-star recruit was the most explosive Power Five rusher in the class with 21% of his career attempts going for 10-plus yards. Given Akers’s poor rushing performance scores, Evans might surprise and carve out a significant role. Great last-round pick.
• Gus Edwards | Ravens – the clear-cut No. 2 behind Dobbins has historically rotated with the No. 1. Todd Monken could change that dynamic, but Edwards is going too late in drafts. Priority late-round target when you need another RB.
• Jerome Ford | Browns – the Browns chose to spend a fifth-round pick on Ford in 2022 despite having a loaded backfield. Now he finds himself with an unencumbered path to the No. 2 role.

Glossary:

• Age = player’s age when the season starts in September
• PPR/Gm = points per reception; points per game
• Rush share = player’s share of rushing attempts in regular season games played
• SDD = short down and distance (less than 3 yards to go on 2nd, 3rd and 4th down)
• LDD = long down and distance (3-plus yards to go on 3rd or 4th down)
• MTF = missed tackles forced rate
• YCO = average yards after contact
• EXP/Att = 10-plus yard rushing attempts per attempt
• RR/DB = routes run per dropback (also known as route participation)
• Target share = player’s share of targets in regular season games played
• TPRR = targets per route run
• YPRR = yards per route run
• aDOT = average depth of target
• Deep = targets of 20-plus yards
• YAC = yards after the catch
• EXP/Tgt = 15-plus yard receptions per target
• Proj Rush Att/Gm = projected regulation rushing attempts for team
• Top 48 RBs = number of RBs from team going inside the top 48
• Team Proj Wins = current win totals from BetMGM
• Close = score within three points
• Trailing = behind by four-plus points
• Leading = ahead by four-plus points
• RB1-worthy = top 12
• RB2-worthy = 13 to 24
• RB3-worthy = 25 to 36