Ten weeks of the 2023 NFL regular season are in the books, meaning we officially have more than a season’s worth of film to help us determine who is good and bad at stuff.
While Week 10’s NFL-record six (!) game-winning field goals as time expired demonstrate the weekly scoreboard volatility that makes THIS LEAGUE so awesome, focusing on more specific pieces of offense vs. defense matchups can help provide some advantages in fantasy land if we play our cards right.
Presenting: Five HUGE Week 11 mismatches that you, a scholar, should be aware of while setting those fantasy football lineups.
49ers passing attack vs. Buccaneers secondary
Brock Purdy (296-3-0) and company got back on track to the tune of 34 points against what was believed to be a pretty good Jaguars defense last week.
The offense undoubtedly benefited from getting healthy versions of both WR Deebo Samuel and LT Trent Williams back in action; nobody has held this group under 30 points all season with at least three of their big-four stud non-QBs healthy (shoutout Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk).
Seriously: The splits from this group during the first five weeks of the season and last week make the best version of the 49ers look a lot like the best overall offense in the NFL, even though their overall 2023 numbers aren’t too shabby anyway.
- EPA per play: +0.22 (overall NFL leader: 49ers – +0.14)
- TD drive %: 36.9% (overall NFL leader: Dolphins – 37%)
- Yards per play: 6.5 (overall NFL leader: Dolphins – 6.8)
- Yards per pass attempt: 9.5 (overall NFL leader: 49ers – 9.2)
- Yards per rush attempt: 4.6 (overall NFL leader: Dolphins – 5.8)
Criticisms of Purdy being a “system” QB are a moot point in fantasy land: Style points don’t matter, and the second-year talent is operating one of the most lethal systems in the entire NFL. Nobody has a higher average team PFF rush and receiving grade than the 49ers (89).
ESPN Analytics ranks Aiyuk as the league’s third-best WR, CMC as the second-best pass-catching RB and Kittle as the single-best receiving TE. Deebo (No. 21) isn’t too far behind.
Let’s just say this Buccaneers secondary isn’t exactly competing for top-tier placement on the same sorts of leaderboards — and the majority of these numbers were racked up BEFORE losing starting CB Carlton Davis (toe):
- EPA allowed per pass play: +0.096 (26th)
- Yards per attempt allowed: 7.6 (26th)
- Explosive pass play rate allowed: 16.2% (29th)
- Fantasy points per game to QB: 18.6 (26th)
- PPR points per game to RB: 16 (2nd)
- PPR points per game to WR: 43 (30th)
- PPR points per game to TE: 13 (19th)
Throw in a front-seven that has generated pressure at the seventh-lowest clip (31.4%) in the league this season … and we more or less have a consensus top-two passing attack facing off against a bottom-10 pass defense in virtually any metric you want to look at.
Don’t just take my word for it: Vegas has the 49ers implied to score a robust 26.25 points on Sunday — the fifth-highest mark in Week 11. Fire up Purdy as the top-12 fantasy QB he’s been for basically his entire career, while there shouldn’t be many — if any — lineups out there with any of CMC, Aiyuk, Deebo or Kittle anywhere near the bench.
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Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle vs. Raiders CBs
Only six players have managed to average north of 2.5 yards per route run dating back to Week 1 of last season; these WRs have been the most efficient pass-catchers the league has had to offer for the better part of the last 15 months:
- Tyreek Hill (3.46)
- A.J. Brown (2.75)
- Justin Jefferson (2.68)
- CeeDee Lamb (2.62)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (2.55)
- Jaylen Waddle (2.51)
Hill’s 2023 excellence can’t be denied: The only player with more receiving yards through a team’s first nine games of the season (1,076) during the Super Bowl era is … the 2022 version of himself (1,104). The artist known as TyFreak is on pace for a cool 2,033 yards and it’s not like anyone would be all that surprised if he even manages to surpass that.
And then there’s Waddle, who has dealt with chest, head and back injuries dating back to August. The third-year speedster has six or fewer targets in all but three games this season and has disappointed with just 13.9 PPR points per game (WR25).
Good news: Both wide-outs are set up to absolutely thrive against a Raiders secondary that has benefited mightily from facing off against the likes of Jordan Love, Mac Jones, Tyson Bagent, Tommy DeVito and Zach Wilson over the course of the past month and a half. Don’t get it twisted: Maxx Crosby and the pass rush will make their presence felt, but this cornerback room simply isn’t one to fear:
- Marcus Peters: The soon-to-be 31-year-old veteran has been a part of secondaries that have surrendered 10-215-2, 5-77-1 and 11-190-2 receiving lines to Tyreek in three career matchups.
- Nate Hobbs: PFF’s 25th-highest-graded cornerback in coverage this season, Hobbs has been the team’s most consistent cover corner all year long.
- Jakorian Bennett: Fourth-round rookie who is PFF’s fourth-lowest-graded cover corner among 126 qualified players.
- Amik Robertson: PFF’s 86th-ranked cornerback in coverage.
- Tyler Hall: Undrafted journeyman who has only played 62 snaps in coverage this season.
Throw in a pair of safeties who both fail to crack PFF’s top-50 highest-graded players in coverage at the position, and it starts to become clear that the Raiders’ standing as the league’s sixth-best defense in limiting PPR points per game to WRs has more so been a result of the schedule they’ve faced than true individual excellence.
The final straw comes down to the reality that while Mike McDaniel’s Dolphins generally make life difficult for defenses of all shapes and sizes, they REALLY turn up the heat against zone-heavy defenses … which the Raiders have been all season long. Overall, Tua Tagovailoa has averaged a robust 8.7 yards per attempt against Cover-2, -3, -4 and -6 looks — the second-highest mark in the league behind only Brock Purdy.
Waddle has had a full bye week to (hopefully) get closer to 100%; don’t be surprised if he combines forces with Hill to put up some SERIOUS numbers this Sunday.
Ravens run game vs. Bengals front-seven
We almost take Lamar Jackson’s rushing production and impact for granted at this point. Sure, I think most casual football fans — even the “he’s an RB” slanderers out there — can admit that the 2019 NFL MVP is a problem on the ground, but do you realize he’s responsible for two of the position’s only four seasons with 1,000-plus rushing yards ever on his way to averaging the most rushing yards per game (61.5) of anyone to ever play the position?
Madness — but the even more impressive feat might just be the regular influence that Jackson’s legs have on opposing defenses. Always a threat to keep the ball on his own, there’s a reason why RBs of all shapes and sizes have generally had plenty of success efficiently picking up yards ever since Jackson took over as the Ravens’ full-time QB:
- 2019: 2.3 rush yards before contact per attempt (No. 1), 5.5 yards per carry (No. 1)
- 2020: 2.4 (No. 1), 5.5 (No. 1)
- 2021: 1.8 (No. 2), 4.8 (No. 5)
- 2022: 2.1 (No. 2), 5.2 (No. 3)
- 2023: 1.7 (No. 1), 4.8 (No. 2)
Getting LT Ronnie Stanley and C Tyler Linderbaum back in the picture after some early-season absences has certainly helped matters: Give this Ravens offensive line a lot of credit for ranking inside PFF’s top-10 groups blocking the run and the pass.
Nov 5, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens running back Keaton Mitchell (34) celebrates his touchdown against the Seattle Seahawks during the third quarter at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jessica Rapfogel-USA TODAY Sports
Oh yeah, and then there’s that Keaton Mitchell guy, who is stealing De’Von Achane’s whole flow (bar for bar!). Yes, the explosive rookie only has 12 rush attempts to his name. Also yes, Mitchell has been the league’s best individual rusher during this admittedly small sample size.
Throw in Gus Edwards (seven TDs in his last four games — overall PPR RB4 during this stretch), and you have the NFL’s single-best offense in EPA per run play.
Let’s just say the Bengals are a far cry from topping the leaderboard in just about any run defense metric:
- EPA allowed per rush: -0.044 (No. 27)
- Explosive run play rate allowed: 18.7% (No. 32)
- Yards per carry allowed: 5.0 (No. 31)
- Yards before contact per carry allowed: 1.8 (No. 31)
- Yards after contact per carry allowed: 3.0 (No. 27)
The Ravens have rushed for 178, 155, 110 and 155 yards in four meetings against Lou Anarumo’s defense over the past two seasons. The only problem in fantasy land is discerning exactly who will be touching the ball, as this backfield has devolved into a three-RB committee over the past two weeks.
Good news: Head coach John Harbaugh confirmed that Mitchell will see more work on Thursday night against a Bengals defense fresh off surrendering a season-best 188 yards to the previously impotent Texans rushing offense; this is the sort of matchup to absolutely expect both Gus Bus and Mitchell to make the most out of their opportunities on the ground. Both are recommended starts in close-ish start/sit decisions; don’t be surprised if Justice Hill is slowly but surely eased out of this rotation.
Cowboys pass defense vs. Bryce Young and company
This is like an unstoppable force meeting a very moveable object. The Cowboys have beaten down underwhelming passing games all season long thanks to a lethal combination of having the league’s highest pressure rate (47.1%) alongside an opportunistic secondary that has picked off a league-best four percent of their opponent’s pass attempts.
Overall, Micah Parsons and company have caused the second-most “Havoc” on a per-play basis this season.
The Cowboys’ fourth-ranked scoring defense has allowed 17 or fewer points and south of 275 total yards on five separate occasions this season — the most by any group in the league through 10 weeks of action.
And then there are the Panthers, who haven’t cleared 15 points in three games since their Week 7 bye despite not exactly facing juggernauts in the Texans, Colts and Bears. Nobody has gained 300 total yards of offense in fewer games than the Panthers (2).
Go ahead and call Bryce Young a bust, or maintain that he simply has no help around him: Either way, the result has been one of the league’s single-least efficient passers this season:
Among 33 QBs with at least 150 dropbacks:
- EPA per dropback: -0.16 (No. 31)
- Completion percentage over expected: -0.8% (No. 24)
- PFF pass grade: 49.3 (No. 33)
- Passer rating: 74.4 (No. 29)
- Yards per attempt: 5.3 (No. 33)
It’d make sense if Adam Thielen can get something going based on nothing more than sweet, sweet volume — he’s one of only eight players with at least five double-digit target games to his name this season — but otherwise, it’s impossible to trust anyone ahead of this likely slaughter. Only the Buccaneers (15.0) and Giants (13.5) are implied to score more points than the Panthers (15.5) this week.
Browns front-seven vs. Steelers O-line
This applies to both expected dominance in the run AND pass games, as not many — if any — units have been more complete than Myles Garrett and company this season. Overall, the Browns have caused more havoc than any other defense in the league thanks to top-three marks in pressure rate (44.1%, third) and rushing yards *before* contact (0.5, second) alike.
And then there are the Steelers, who are sitting pretty at 6-3 despite being out-gained in every game this season. Look no further than Week 2’s 26-22 victory over these very same Browns ... that featured them losing the total yardage battle 255 to 408.
This Steelers offensive line ranks 31st in pass blocking grade and 19th on the ground. Maybe part of the problem is they've not been rewarded by Kenny Pickett when the blocking has held up: Pickett is averaging the third-fewest yards per attempt (6.3) on the league's fourth-lowest adjusted completion rate (73.2%) when given the benefit of a clean pocket this season.
I mean, just throw the ball to Diontae Johnson, man!
The main hope in Pittsburgh comes down to (now starting) RB Jaylen Warren continuing to look a lot like one of the best backs in football. Seriously: These numbers are WILD:
- PFF rush grade: 81.8 (No. 8 among 47 RBs with 50-plus carries)
- Yards per carry: 5.1 (No. 6)
- Yard after contact per carry: 3.3 (No. 7)
- Missed tackles forced per carry: 0.38 (No. 1)
- Explosive run-play rate: 19.7% (No. 1)
Note that Warren (12.7% of rushes have included 8-plus defenders in the box) isn't simply benefiting from loads of softer boxes when compared against the less efficient Najee Harris (15.5%): The second-year talent has simply been really f*cking good at football for the better part of the last two months.
I’m cool with riding Warren as a borderline RB2, Johnson is a volume-based borderline WR2 and George Pickens is more of a boom-or-bust WR4 at this point. None deserve the benefit of the doubt in close start/sit decisions inside of a Steelers offense that continues to demonstrate far more bad than good every week. Only the Panthers (15.5), Buccaneers (15) and Giants (13.5) are implied to score fewer points than the Steelers (16.25) ahead of this brutal road spot.
