Jaguars +2 at Jets – 37.5 total
This matchup features two teams trending in opposite directions. The Jets are currently sitting at 7-7, and while they currently have a one-game lead over the Jaguars in the standings, Jacksonville is the team with all the momentum. They managed to secure an upset over the Cowboys in Week 15, and they now have a 44% chance to qualify for the postseason. The Jets have dipped to just 20% to make the postseason after losing three straight games.
The big difference is that the Jaguars are very much alive to win the AFC South. The Titans are currently just one game ahead of the Jaguars in the standings, but those two teams will meet again in Week 18. The Jaguars won their first head-to-head matchup this season, so Jacksonville controls their own destiny to make the postseason. If they can win their final three games, they will head to the playoffs.
With the way Trevor Lawrence is playing at the moment, I wouldn’t bet against Jacksonville actually pulling it off. The former No. 1 overall pick stumbled a bit out of the gates, but he has really hit his stride in recent weeks. He has at least 318 passing yards and three touchdowns in three of his past four games, and he’s averaged 8.59 adjusted yards per attempt over his past six contests. He’s racked up 15 total touchdowns over that span – 14 passing and one rushing – along with just one interception.
On the other side, the Jets have major issues at quarterback. Zach Wilson returned to the lineup in Week 15 following a brief hiatus, and he didn’t look particularly improved. His overall numbers were fine – 317 passing yards, two touchdowns, and one interception – but he continued to miss throws that an NFL-caliber quarterback has to make. Pro Football Focus credited him with a 59.2 passing grade against the Lions, and while that was a slight upgrade from his season-long numbers, it still makes him one of the worst starters in football.
Fortunately, the Jets do have a really strong defense. They rank in the top four in both yards and points per game allowed, and they’re sixth in defensive DVOA. They held a potent Lions offense to just 20 points last week, and seven of them came on a punt return.
That said, it remains to be seen if that will matter against Jacksonville. The Cowboys have had an even better defense than the Jets this season, and the Jaguars just hung 40 points on them. If the Jets can’t slow down the Jaguars, they’ve shown no ability to put points on the board with Wilson under center.
