Regression Session Week 16. Bank on a Stefon Diggs Bounceback.
It’s the most wonderful time of the year… and I’m not talking about the holidays. Most fantasy leagues are down to their final four teams and the next two weeks will determine who has bragging rights for the next year.
If you’re reading this I assume you have teams still competing for a championship or are just as obsessed with fantasy football as we are (hopefully both). Either way, good for you.
With just two weeks left in the fantasy football regular season, we are running out of time for regression trends to play out, but we can still identify who some of the top candidates for positive and negative regression are.
Positive Regression
Stefon Diggs, WR - Bills
It’s been a turbulent season for the Buffalo Bills and the same goes for their star WR. Just over one month ago the Bills were looking like long shots for the playoffs and we had this tweet from Trevon Diggs that caused plenty of speculation about a rift within the locker room.
Buffalo has now gone on to win three of their last four games and are firmly in the playoff mix. Unfortunately for fantasy managers with Stefon Diggs on their team, this stretch of better games for the team has coincided with the worst fantasy output of the year for their top WR.
Over their last four games, Diggs has the same target share (30%) as his full-season average, but has finished as the WR36 or worse in three of four games. For context, he only had one game outside the top 36 WRs through the first 10 weeks of the season.
Last week’s dud can be explained away by the fact that Josh Allen only attempted 15 passes in a super run-heavy game for the Bills offense. But it was encouraging to see Diggs still have a 38% target share on those 15 pass attempts, a sign that his role in the offense hasn’t really changed.
This week the Bills get to take on a Chargers defense that ranks 25th or worst in fantasy points allowed to every position. The same defense that just gave up 63 points (yes, there were two defensive TDs in there) to the Raiders last week.
Buffalo should be able to attack however they want and find success both passing and running. As long as Allen reaches his season average of 35 pass attempts and Diggs sees a similar target share to what he has all year it should lead to a big game for the talented WR.
If you like narratives to support your data, I also expect the Bills to prioritize getting Allen some big numbers in this game to boost his MVP argument if they are able to make the playoffs. That may cause them to keep their foot on the gas against this Chargers team similar to what we saw from the Raiders last week.
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Travis Etienne, RB - Jaguars
The Jaguars season is on the ropes following three straight losses that have dropped them into a three-way tie for first in their division. To make matters worse, Trevor Lawrence is in the concussion protocol and seems unlikely to play this week.
Travis Etienne is already a positive regression candidate based on his recent workload and fantasy output. He has really underperformed in the expected TD category after receiving 7 carries inside the 5-yard line over his last four games but only punching in two rushing TDs.
If Lawrence does sit it will lower the ceiling for the entire offense but in Etienne’s case, I believe that will be offset by the rushing attack becoming the focus of their game plan.
The Jaguars have a must-win game against Tampa Bay this week and they should lean on their stud RB if their starting QB is out. The Buccaneers' defense has been solid against the run this year, but they have been weaker in recent weeks. Since Week 12, Tampa Bay ranks 19th in EPA allowed per rush attempt so this isn’t a matchup that Jacksonville should fear.
Dec 4, 2023; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars running back Travis Etienne Jr. (1) runs for a touchdown against the Cincinnati Bengals in the first quarter at EverBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Reper-USA TODAY Sports
With how important this game is I wouldn’t be surprised to see Etienne receive one of his largest workloads of the season. The offense may not have as many scoring opportunities as they have had in recent weeks but that is likely going to be a bigger issue for the pass catchers than it is for Etienne.
This combination of a larger-than-normal workload, positive regression in TD efficiency, and a rush defense that has been below average in recent weeks has everything lining up for Etienne’s first finish as a top-10 fantasy RB since Week 8.
Negative Regression
Jaylen Waddle, WR - Dolphins
As someone with Jaylen Waddle on multiple best ball teams that are still alive on Underdog I really hope I am wrong about this one, but there is no way to ignore the difference in role for Waddle when Tyreek Hill is on the field vs off the field.
We’ve seen it in short spurts throughout the year when Hill is on the sideline for rest or a minor injury, the passing game flows through Waddle. In Week 15 we saw it for a full game as Hill sat out to recover from his ankle injury. Waddle absolutely went off, seeing a 35% target share and an incredible 85% of the team’s air yards. He turned that usage into 28 PPR points which was good for the WR2 on the week.
Those usage numbers were a massive spike from his season-long averages and they aren’t likely to be sticky, especially with Hill expected to return to the lineup this week.
I’m very confident his target share and air yard share will regress toward his season averages in Week 16, but there is the chance he can connect on a big play or two in a game that has the potential to turn into a shootout against the Dallas Cowboys.
Deebo Samuel, WR - 49ers
It has been an unbelievable December for Deebo Samuel. In four games this month the versatile WR has gone absolutely nuclear, totaling 441 scrimmage yards and 8 total TDs (5 receiving and 3 rushing).
He has been the main weapon for this stretch of games and the 49ers are undefeated during that time. However, things are going to be much tougher in Week 16 as San Francisco welcomes the NFL’s stingiest scoring defense. The Ravens are allowing just 16.1 points per game and will pose a much more difficult test than the teams Deebo has carved up this month.
This game still has a decent game total of 47 points so we shouldn’t necessarily expect a low-scoring affair, but the 49ers are unlikely to put up 40+ points like they have in two of their last four contests.
Deebo should still see plenty of work but San Francisco has so many weapons to lean on that I expect them to spread the ball around to keep the Baltimore defense off balance. He’s still a great option in your lineup this week but as someone who was already due for negative regression on the TD front, this isn’t a matchup where we can expect him to hit his ceiling.
This may not feel like all that bold of a prediction but with how well Deebo has been playing recently, but an end to his three-game streak with multiple TDs seems to be in the cards.
