Week 17 Matchup of the Week. Dolphins @ Ravens Breakdown.
OK, I’m trying to thread a needle here.
On the one hand, I want Lamar Jackson to win the MVP.
If you’re looking for a pro-Lamar statistical argument from me, you won’t find it here. He’s top 10 in every metric you’ll usually see me cite for QB eval. Again, top 10. Not first or behind a couple of other high-end passers. Well, except for rushing.
Regardless, his control over this offense in its first season, through injuries and tough defenses, has been remarkable. So, Baltimore getting another W works for me.
However, I also want to see Tyreek Hill get to 2,000 receiving yards.
He’s 359 yards away with two games left. Because of math, he’d need at least 180 to get back on track.
Typically, if a WR gets to that mark, his team is winning. Actually, the only time this season that hasn’t worked is when CeeDee Lamb did it in Week 9 against the Eagles. The other eight times were all wins. So, Hill posting nearly two bills as a receiver also works.
Like I said, I’m trying to thread a needle here. But it could happen. Let’s start with Hill’s (and the rest of Miami’s) prospects against the Ravens.
Dolphins Week 17 Outlook
In Week 15, Mike McDaniel and Tua Tagovailoa emphasized the team’s ability to thrive even without Hill. Granted, it was against the Jets. And the defense pitched a shutout. But really, the only effect the lopsided game had on Miami’s offensive approach was their total play volume.
With their contest against the Cowboys coming down to the wire, Tua’s dropback rate jumped, but his dropbacks relative to expectation remained the same. Baltimore’s offense will likely set up a similar script. However, injuries to the Dolphins’ pass-catching corps might change things.
Hill escaped Week 16 without having a setback, but Jaylen Waddle is now dealing with a high ankle sprain. The third-year WR had four targets in the first quarter, went to the medical tent and locker room, and didn’t touch the ball again until the third frame. In his absence, a few of his teammates stepped up to take some attention away from Hill’s 46.4% target share. Regardless, there are a couple of ways Miami could attack the Ravens’ defense, even with Waddle at less than full speed.
Ced Wilson and Durham Smythe are role players. Wilson was the only other WR targeted in obvious passing situations. And Smythe helped move the chains on early downs. We can’t trust either in fantasy lineups this weekend, but a less-concentrated passing game opens the door for two options we should.
Raheem Mostert was also in and out of last week’s game with a lower leg injury. It didn’t stop him from subbing in for De’Von Achane on the four-yard line for a short score (much to the chagrin of Achane managers), but Mostert only played on 29.7% of the snaps. He still led the team with 12 touches, including the score, which should keep him in the RB2 discussion. For the rookie, things might be a little different.
Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert (31) spikes the ball after scoring a touchdown past New York Jets safety Tony Adams (22) during the first half of an NFL game at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Dec. 17, 2023. Credit: Jim Rassol / USA TODAY NETWORK
Achane was on the field for 35 snaps, which translated into just eight touches. The three-card-Monte rotation Miami’s running at RB can be maddening. With Mostert getting the green-zone work and Jeff Wilson getting short-yardage totes, Achane’s overall usage is hard to project. But his receiving work might not be.
The rookie rusher ran one route in the first quarter of Week 16. He ran 24 over the remaining three quarters with Waddle on and off the field. Tua only targeted Achane (3 times) and Mostert (1) out of the backfield, which at least cements Achane as the RB2 of the trio. But the freshman wasn’t a safety valve or check-down option.
The offense was trying to create explosives with him downfield. Achane’s 6.7 air yards per target were the fourth-highest on the squad. Combined with a 20.6% slot rate, Achane’s floor and ceiling potential tick up with Waddle injured. Plus, his archetype has given the Ravens trouble in the past.
- Jahmyr Gibbs: 11-68-1 (rushing stat line), 10-58-0 (receiving stat line)
- Joe Mixon: 16-69-0, 5-31-1
- Christian McCaffrey: 14-103-1, 10-28-0
- Zack Moss: 30-122-0, 3-23-1
Since returning in Week 13, Achane has been the more efficient runner (higher EPA per rush, forced missed tackle rate, and adjusted yards after contact per rush) with more targets. But, of course, Mostert’s red-zone role (100.0% of the carries from inside the five over the last three weeks) makes him the preferred RB. Regardless, it’s a Detroit-like situation with Achane in the Gibbs role with one fewer passing option for Tua this weekend.
Ravens Week 17 Outlook
For the Ravens, everything is on the table. Gus Edwards can plow through a defensive line for a short gain. Zay Flowers can create separation for an explosive downfield. And it all intersects at Lamar. This play encapsulates their evolution this season.
“Lamar, just run it.” That’s what I said to myself, watching it in real time.
Sure, it would have been a short gain, but Jackson’s mobility has been a constant—the thing we know he can do to create more manageable situations. But instead, he used the threat of his legs to generate an even bigger gain. As a result, the offense has been able to slide in and out of pass- and run-first approaches over their last four games.
If the offense leans on their running game, at least we have an idea of the touch distribution. With Keaton Mitchell out, Edwards and Justice Hill took over the backfield, with their roles meeting expectations.
Hill’s speed gave him the inside track on most of the receiving work, and the ‘Gus Bus’ lived up to his nickname with another short score. Edwards’s short-yardage and receiving work give him low-end RB2 appeal, and Hill would only be a viable option in deep leagues. Regardless, if the Ravens have to keep pace with Miami’s offense, they might take to the air against the Dolphins’ secondary anyway.
Flowers has reclaimed the WR1 role with a 25.8% target share and runs the most routes from the area of the field where the Dolphins are weakest. His 38.1% slot rate should make him an easy option for Jackson, but TE Isaiah Likely isn’t too far behind.
Likely has averaged 5.8 looks per game and has become an integral part of the offense. He has the third-most targets when Jackson is under pressure and second-most in obvious passing situations. Odell Beckham has transitioned to playing primarily on the outside (13.8% slot rate). While he still leads in air yards, he falls into the infinite WR3 tier, leaving Flowers and Likely as the two best options for Week 17.
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