Week 9 Fantasy Football Rankings And Tiers. Chris Olave Set to Break Out.

It is time to make those tough lineup decisions for Week 9 of the fantasy football season.

Below, you’ll find positional rankings, player analysis, team totals and spreads for every game on the slate.

Notes: 

• Players are now tiered across all positions (RB, WR and TE) to help with flex decisions in larger formats. Because of this, TEs might not have a player deserving of Tier 1 compared to RBs and WRs.
• Defensive yards and TDs allowed exclude overtime play.
• All references to defensive ranks are for this week (bye Week teams excluded).

Last updated: 3:30 p.m. Nov. 2. Please refer to our Rankings page for updates!

Quarterback Rankings & Tiers - Week 9

Running Back Rankings & Tiers - Week 9

Tier 2 – Joe Mixon

Mixon has accounted for 81% of the Bengals rushing attempts in 2023 — the most of any RB in the NFL. He is among the few backs to account for 100% of their team’s attempts inside the five-yard line. The Bengals prefer to pass inside the five-yard line, but Mixon always has a chance to come through with a multi-score game in a high-scoring affair.

His 55% route participation isn’t elite, but it is in RB1 territory, and Mixon has accounted for 70% of the snaps in the two-minute offense. He often gives way in LDD (long down and distance) situations, but those are snaps we are willing to sacrifice. Historically, those are not target-friendly plays for RBs.

The veteran RB averages almost 20 opportunities per game with 16 attempts and 3.3 targets, playing on one of the best offenses in the NFL. That is a powerful combination — especially potential shootout games like the one against Buffalo this weekend.

The Bengals have the second-highest team total (25.5) in Week 9 against a Bills defense that allows the ninth-most yards rushing (122) per game. Mixon has been an average to below back from an efficiency standpoint, but the Bills are not a good tackling team. They rank fourth-worst in PFF tacking grade (33.9), and the veteran RB should have a chance to tack on extra yards.

Mixon UPGRADES to RB1 territory in this spot and is a top-20 play in Week 9.

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Tier 2 – James Cook

After averaging 14.5 points per game over the first four games, Cook has hit a lull over the last month with an average of 9.8. He has finished outside the top 24 in three of four contests and his volume is also down. Rushing attempts have dropped from 14 to 11.5 attempts per game, and his targets are down from 3.3 per game to two.

However, if we dive into the utilization data, we can see that Cook’s role hasn’t changed.

• Weeks 1 through 4: 55% snaps, 52% attempts, 51% routes
• Weeks 5 through 8: 59% snaps, 52% attempts, 52% routes

The most significant difference has been the game script. On average, Buffalo trailed by four-plus points on 3.4% of plays over the first four games, but that jumped to 57% in the last four. Ultimately, our expectation around Cook’s role in the passing game was wrong, which has turned him into a game-script-dependent back.

Oct 15, 2023; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills running back James Cook (4) runs with the ball against the New York Giants during the first half at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

However, he still plays on a high-quality offense that should see its fair share of favorable game scripts. So, while he might not be the high-end RB2 we thought, he also isn’t a low-end RB3. Most likely, we are dealing with a low-end RB2 that we can maximize in favorable matchups.

This weekend, the Bills carry a top-six team total (23.75) against a Bengals defense allowing the fourth-most yards per game on the ground (139). 

Cook UPGRADES to mid-range RB2 status as my RB15 and is a top-30 play.

Tier 4 – Chuba Hubbard

Coming out of the bye under with a new playcaller in Thomas Brown, the Panthers shifted to Hubbard as their lead back. He dominated every aspect of utilization over Miles Sanders.

Sanders wasn’t on the injury report heading into Week 8, so this could be the new normal for Carolina’s backfield.

This weekend, the Panthers get a soft matchup in the run game against a Colts defense that has allowed the second-most points per game (23.4) on the ground. The 1-6 Panthers have a chance to keep this one close based on a three-point spread, which should keep Hubbard involved in the game plan.

Hubbard UPGRADES to low-end RB2 status and is a top-50 play.

Wide Receiver Rankings & Tiers - Week 9

Tier 3 – Chris Olave

Olave continues to perform below expectations in the fantasy box score. Averaging 12.7 points per game, he ranks as the WR34 — a far cry from the Round 2 pick many fantasy managers spent.

However, the second-year WR continues to do the things well that historically correlate to scoring more fantasy points. He ranks seventh in targets (77) and second in air yards (1,079).

Over the last 12 seasons, players with similar air yards and targets per game to Olave have been WR1 material. As you can see from the table above, most WRs with similar underlying data have also performed well in 2023.

While some of those air yards have come in tightly contested situations or hard-to-catch scenarios, the thing that matters most is intent. The intent is for Olave to be the centerpiece in a passing attack that is picking up steam. He is earning targets, and Derek Carr wants to target him.

I want to continue to bet on that formula, especially considering the Saints' passing game is ascending as Carr has gotten over his shoulder injury. Over the last three games, Carr has averaged 321 yards and 1.3 TDs.

This weekend, the Saints also carry a top-three team total (24.5) and face a Colts secondary allowing the third-most passing yards per game (270.5) on the slate.

Olave is a SMASH play as my WR10 and No. 24 player for Week 9.

Tier 4 – Tank Dell

Dell only scored six points in Week 8, but he saw his best route participation of the season at 93% with Robert Woods — who isn’t expected to play in Week 9 — out of the game.

Dell has averaged 13.9 points in contests where he registered an 80% or higher route participation this year. Unfortunately, last weekend, the Texans dropped back to pass a season-low 48% of plays, 10 percentage points below their season average of 58%.

Overall, the Texans are a neutral DBOE (dropback rate over expectation) team willing to run or throw the ball more, depending on the matchup. We could see them throw the ball against a strong Buccaneers run defense that might invite C.J. Stroud to try and beat them. Tampa Bay gives up the second-most passing yards per game (271.3) on the slate.

Dell also gets involved in the rushing attack, reaching at least two attempts in the last three games. The Texans want to get the ball to their rookie in as many ways as possible.

Dell is a low-end WR3 with WR2 upside in Week 9 against the Bucs.

Tight End Rankings & Tiers - Week 9

Reminder: I have leveled my tiers across RB, WR and TE to help with flex lineup decisions. Travis Kelce is my highest-rated TE in Week 6, and he is in Tier 2 due to the change in process based on feedback (thanks!).

Tier 5 – Kyle Pitts

We could have the perfect storm for Pitts this weekend with Drake London questionable and Taylor Heinicke taking over the starting QB role in Atlanta. London didn’t practice on Wednesday or Thursday thanks to a groin injury that knocked him out of last weekend’s game.

While Heinicke hasn’t been anything magical over the last two years, Terry McLaurin averaged 15.6 points per game with him in 2022. Surprisingly, Heinicke supported at least one relevant fantasy performer in seven of nine games and supported two five times.

Pitts has the target-earning ability to maximize an opportunity like this, but Arthur Smith could still submarine our hopes and dreams by minimizing playing time. After starting the season as a full-time player, Pitts’ average route participation has fallen to 66% over the last four games.

While Smith’s crazy player utilization could throw a wrench in things, this is the type of profile I want to bet on in a less competitive target environment.

Pitts UPGRADES to mid-range TE1 status, coming in as my TE6.