Pete Overzet identifies 10 fantasy football average draft position trends in early best ball drafts.

Before the 2024 NFL season even ended, people started drafting 2025 teams.

Some might call that insanity, but at the very least it is a reality.

Fortunately, we here at Fantasy Life are here to fan the flames of sicko fantasy culture, which is a year-round enterprise at this point.

I have yet to draft my first team—I'm going to do that on stream on Monday—but I have spent plenty of time looking at the ADPs, analyzing the landscape, and plotting how I want to attack drafts.

Below are 10 polarizing players whom I think are either way too expensive or way too cheap.

Let's dig in…

Brian Thomas Jr. (ADP: 10.5; WR7)

Look, I love Brian Thomas Jr. He was an absolute monster down the stretch last year and a clear fantasy MVP. Buuuuuut, I do worry that this price is a smidge too frothy—I can't take him over Malik Nabers, Brock Bowers, or a few of the RBs behind him—considering the amount of new variables that will be in the Jacksonville mix when the 2025 season starts.

For starters, BTJ benefited from a massive target void in the back half of the season with both Evan Engram and Christian Kirk out of the lineup (btw, both Engram and Kirk are phenomenal values in the Big Board right now).

He also racked up most of his production with a backup QB (Mac Jones), who was willing to pepper him with targets thanks to no other viable weapons on the field.

Toss in a new OC, and there are a lot of new wrinkles in play when forecasting BTJ's 2025 season. 

And while I do think BTJ has the talent to be an alpha, there is some Christian Watson-esque downside risk not being baked into his current ADP. 

Ashton Jeanty (ADP: 14.5; RB6)

OK, now we're talking. Here's the kind of ADP that will make a normie's head spin, while a grinder might not bat an eye. 

Regardless, the market has spoken and the top RB prospect in the 2025 NFL Draft is an early second-round fantasy pick.

From a talent perspective, most evaluators put Ashton Jeanty on a similar-level as Bijan Robinson as a prospect. That's to say—he has the kind of talent to immediately make a big fantasy impact as a rookie.

The only issue here, however, is the risk of an unideal landing spot. In his first mock draft, NFL insider Lance Zierlein mocked him to the Jets in the Top 10, which would be very ugly for fantasy unless the team also traded Breece Hall.

On the other hand, if he lands in Dallas–like Thor recently mocked–it will be a wheel's up situation for his value and this cost would be totally justified. 

I personally am on the side of taking the Jeanty plunge and playing landing spot roulette. The reward is simply too great if he binks the nut landing spot.

Isiah Pacheco (ADP: 82.8; RB26)

The Isiah Pacheco ADP is the most bewildering price in the entire contest right now. I devoted an entire newsletter intro to the absurdity of it last week and I will continue to FUD this wild ADP until the market corrects it into a more palatable range. 

Since writing that post, Pacheco had 3 carries in the Super Bowl and 1 catch. He was out-rushed by Patrick Mahomes, Kareem Hunt, and Samaje Perine. 

I truly have no idea what people clicking on him here are thinking. Even if he makes a full recovery from his fibula injury that happened at the start of the 2024 season, there is a near 100% chance that the Chiefs bolster this backfield in either Free Agency or the NFL Draft.

Your best-case scenario as a Pachco bull (do you people exist?!) is another timeshare scenario where he's able to wrestle back goal-line carries. Even in that rosy scenario, he'd need to be priced much lower than RB26.

To put a bow on this—and emphasize how absurd the price is—I wouldn't take Pacheco until we got to the 150s or so. That’s around Jerome Ford, Blake Corum, and some longshot rookies.

Travis Hunter (ADP: 117.6, WR57)

Rookies have long been a skeleton key in early best ball drafts, but Travis Hunter presents a situation drafters have never encountered in modern-day fantasy.

That's because we don't actually know how Hunter will be utilized! If he were a full-time WR who went Top 5 in the NFL Draft, he'd be the most underpriced player on the entire pool.

On the other hand, if he mostly plays CB and only gets a few gadget snaps at WR, he's one of the most overpriced players in the entire pool. 

Here's how Thor described Hunter in his latest mock (slotting him at No. 2 overall to the Browns):

The draft’s best overall player, Hunter profiles as a CB1 who’ll moonlight part-time as an electric go-to WR1 for however many offensive snaps he can additionally handle.

As much as I'm excited about Hunter, I think this price is too rich for what is essentially a three-leg parlay:

  • A good landing spot/QB
  • A near full-time WR
  • Him being a good NFL WR

I'll sprinkle him in a little, but I'm comfortable mostly fading at this cost.

Anthony Richardson (ADP: 139.6; QB21)

I understand why Anthony Richardson's ADP has plummeted from his 2024 ADP in Rounds 5 and 6, but I'd argue that the pendulum has swung too far in the other direction.

The biggest risk in selecting Richardson at this price is that he gets benched down the stretch and is a zero in your lineup during the most important weeks of the fantasy playoffs.

But I don't think the Colts are going to give up on him yet, and we should continue to see progression in his game as he enters what is effectively his second full year in the league.

Last year he provided multiple spike weeks (26.1 points vs. the Texans, 28.1 points vs. the Jets), and the offense should gel more in 2025 with both Adonai Mitchell and Josh Downs on positive trajectories.

At these prices, I think Richardson is the perfect QB3 for three-QB builds where you can mostly freeroll the upside and draft him exclusively for a handful of (hopefully) well-timed spike weeks. 

Bonus: 5 More Polarizing ADPs  

Chuba Hubbard (ADP: 47.9; RB16)

This could be a landmine if Jonathon Brooks forces a full-blown timeshare, should he return from his second torn ACL injury.

Tyler Warren (ADP: 102.6, TE9)

I could see this being a solid value, but there's a real chance that this is just Brock Bowers-template chasing (and there won't be another Bowers). 

Travis Etienne Jr. (ADP: 103.8; RB32)

This dovetails with the Kirk/Engram love. Outside of BTJ, this entire offense is way, way, way too cheap. Etienne is priced at his downside here (1B in a committee).

C.J. Stroud (ADP: 125.9; QB17)

Like Richardson, I think this is too big of an overreaction to 2024. All it takes is a slight shift in offensive philosophy for Stroud to be a massive value at this cost.

Kyle Pitts (ADP: 144.5; TE17)

What is dead may never die. 

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We will have weekly best ball strategy dispatches for you throughout the offseason, so be sure to check back each week for more.