The best ball streets are alive and popping. Over four percent of Underdog Fantasy’s Best Ball Mania IV contest has already been filled since opening last weekend.
Personally, I dove right into best-ball mode shortly after reading Peter Overzet’s excellent breakdown of this year’s structure strategy and have completed eight drafts to this point.
Here are five early takeaways and things I’ve noticed from the first week of Hot Best Ball Summer.
QBs are FLYING off the board early
Spend 10 minutes inside any fantasy draft, and you will quickly realize:
The public is tired of waiting at QB.
There has usually been one signal-caller who flirts with going inside of Round 2 in recent years, but never as consistently as in 2023. On average, the QB1-6 bucket is off the board a round and a half earlier than last year.
On the one hand, the scoring difference in fantasy points per game between the QB1-6 and QB7-12 buckets indeed reached a decade-high 4.4 points in 2022.
On the other, 2021 marked the lowest difference between the QB1-6 and QB7-12 groups at just 2.2 points.
To be fair, some recency bias might be at hand here. I don’t have a huge problem with going after the true dual-threat aliens at the top of the draft (Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes); these guys are essentially playing a different game and are largely responsible for the ADP push in the first place — the problem is with placing a premium on the pocket passer tiers.
There’s nothing unreasonable with Dak Prescott's (QB10) and Tua Tagovailoa’s (QB11) positional ADP rankings. But should they really be going four to six rounds ahead of guys like Derek Carr, Jordan Love and Matthew Stafford?
Consider taking a page out of Ricky Bobby’s playbook by deploying a “first or last” strategy at QB that focuses less on the middle-class options, who are largely only being pushed up boards because of the public’s infatuation with the position’s top-six players. So far, I’ve preferred rosters that focus on the “last” part of the strategy.
2023: Revenge of the late-round QB?
You can start targeting your late-round QBs on Underdog Fantasy by getting a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you create a new account. Sign up below and start drafting today!
The RB/WR balance has swung strongly in favor of WRs
There’s certainly plenty of time for things to change, but for now top-12 and top-24 WRs are on pace to be drafted before their RB counterparts for the first time in at least the last five years.
And it really isn’t even close! The following table denotes the cumulative overall ADP from each position’s top-12 and top-24 players (green means picked earlier, white means later).
| Year | RB Top-12 | WR Top-12 | Diff | RB Top-24 | WR Top-24 | Diff |
| 2023 | 18.2 | 11.6 | +6.6 | 37.3 | 33.8 | +3.6 |
| 2022 | 10.6 | 16.9 | -6.3 | 28.3 | 29.2 | -0.9 |
| 2021 | 8.4 | 20.5 | -12.1 | 23.5 | 32.8 | -9.3 |
| 2020 | 7.4 | 22.8 | -15.3 | 20.1 | 34.7 | -14.5 |
| 2019 | 9.8 | 17.3 | -7.5 | 23.0 | 31.2 | -8.2 |
Don’t hate the player; hate the ADP.
The way to zig at the moment sure seems to be by taking at least a few RBs inside of the first four to five rounds, as the public’s love for early-round WRs is slowly but surely pushing the sort of backs typically inhabiting the RB dead zone into a more acceptable ADP range.
Rookie WR Value
Another reason to feel better about drafting RBs earlier than usual comes down to the reality that there are tons of enticing rookie WRs available late.
Year 1 WRs are prime best ball targets, in particular, because of their tendency to bloom late (AKA in the fantasy playoffs). Plus, it’s rare to see WRs not drafted inside of the first three rounds put up big-time fantasy numbers.
So, focusing on just Day 1 and 2 receivers: The rookies averaged 7.6 PPR points per game during the first eight weeks of the season compared to 8.3 (+0.7) during the last two-plus months of the year.
Overall, 66 of 108 (61%) qualified rookie WRs improved their PPR points per game during the second half of the season. Not too shabby!
Don’t be afraid to throw darts at the following Year 1 receivers priced outside of the top 150 players at Underdog Fantasy. Rashee Rice, Jayden Reed and Cedric Tillman specifically have been targets of mine due to their relatively soft depth-chart competition:
- Chiefs Rashee Rice (WR68, 157.5)
- Colts Josh Downs (WR73, 174.8)
- Broncos Marvin Mims (WR81, 190.5)
- Packers Jayden Reed (WR84, 192.7)
- Texans Nathaniel Dell (WR88, 210)
- Browns Cedric Tillman (WR90, 210.2)
- Raiders Tre Tucker (WR121, 215.8)
- Cardinals Michael Wilson (WR127, 215.8)
👎 Delayed Changes in ADP from The Draft
Value hounds (ruff) might be tempted to take guys like Kenneth Walker, Tyler Lockett, Tyler Allgeier or K.J. Osborn 10-plus spots after their ADP. But even that probably isn’t close to long enough, considering just how badly their fantasy stock was hurt during the draft.
These draft-related ADP drops shouldn’t be an issue for too much longer. Just make sure you stay tuned to this very newsletter for updates and information surrounding trades, injuries and suspensions throughout the summer.
These are the sort of annual events which can boom or doom an ADP in a hurry.
📣 Zero RB Value
The following RBs going in the Round 9 to 11 range are pretty much the last crop of guys who fantasy managers can expect any sort of consistent upside from:
Eagles’ Rashaad Penny (RB34, 108.3): The favorite to take Miles Sanders’ plethora of early-down work, Penny is at a far more reasonable price point to invest in the Eagles’ muddled backfield as opposed to D’Andre Swift (RB20, 61.9).
Broncos’ Samaje Perine (RB38, 115.7): Solidified as Sean Payton’s No. 2 RB after the team declined to add any competition in the draft. Perine could even start the season as the featured back should Javonte Williams’ complicated knee recovery get … more complicated.
Commanders’ Brian Robinson (RB36, 111.8) and Antonio Gibson (RB42, 130.6): Washington RBs have averaged the NFL’s second-most expected PPR points per game since 2020 despite operating in the league’s 27th-ranked scoring offense. This is mostly thanks to pass-game volume, which has mostly gone to current free-agent RB J.D. McKissic (ranked fifth in RB targets since ‘20). It’s unclear if McKissic (neck) will play football in 2023 — let alone for Washington — dwindling down this fantasy-friendly backfield to two (cheap) parties.
Dolphins Devon Achane (RB39, 116.9): Potentially the Dolphins starting RB, the uncertainty facing this backfield has left all three parties outside the position’s top-36 options. Achane (pronounced a-chain, I think) has stupid speed and might be more like what head coach Mike McDaniel had in mind for 2022 Week 1 starter Chase Edmonds.
You can get ahead and start drafting Achane before a potential ADP hike by signing up for Underdog Fantasy. Take advantage of a 100% deposit match of up to $100 and start drafting today by signing up below!
