ADP Misprices. Six Fantasy Football ADPs that don't make sense.
Fantasy football rankings are tricky. The chances of ranking every player perfectly are quite literally impossible, and the nonstop news cycle makes constant tinkering a necessity, with drafts going on 24/7 in the year 2023.
One part of the process that is an unfortunate reality is that rankers aren’t incentivized to make any sort of meaningful stands against average draft position (ADP).
Example: You might truly believe Anthony Richardson will score the third-most fantasy points at the position this season. Maybe that’s even your “bold call” of the year—but why rank and accordingly draft him as the QB3 when the rookie is regularly available in drafts as the QB11?
This makes it important to constantly compare rankings against current ADP to ensure that you aren’t too far off a player one way or another. Everyone becomes a value at some point; being “completely out no matter what” on anybody is nonsense.
Oct 30, 2022; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Washington Commanders running back Antonio Gibson (24) runs the ball while Indianapolis Colts defensive tackle Grover Stewart (90) defends in the second quarter at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
I am certainly mindful of ever-evolving ADP while updating Fantasy Life fantasy rankings, but the following six players are just so cheap that I continue to have a really hard time moving them any lower in the ranks despite my high personal rankings.
Don’t hate the player; hate the ADP—and I LOVE the current ADP on the following talents.
Colts QB Anthony Richardson
- ADP: QB11 (pick 99.7)
- Ian’s rank: QB10 (85)
The simple fact of the matter with Richardson comes down to whether or not you think quite possibly the freakiest athlete we’ve ever seen play the position will be used as an especially high-volume rusher in an offense led by head coach Shane Steichen—AKA Jalen Hurts’s former offensive coordinator.
If your answer to that question is yes, then Richardson’s current ADP looks like a smashing value, especially if Steichen takes a page out of the Eagles’ 2022 playbook and features the 6’4", 244-pound monster on “tush push” QB sneaks.
While it’s (sadly) possible Gardner Minshew gets the initial nod under center, 21 of 26 rookie QBs drafted inside the top 10 picks have gone on to start at least 10 games (average 12.1) since 2010.
It’s a matter of when—not if—Richardson’s dual-threat talents are unleashed at the professional level. The rookie profiles as the sort of asset capable of working as a great fantasy QB even if it takes a bit for him to become a competent real-life passer.
Not drafting one of the elite options in the first 4-5 rounds can leave your QB position low on big-time upside—Richardson is one of very few later-round options available who could quickly find themselves in that same early-round conversation this time next year.
Cardinals RB James Conner
- ADP: RB28 (pick 87.6)
- Ian’s rank: RB22 (72)
Conner is one of the primary beneficiaries of the current movement going on in the country where the public pretends like RBs don’t exist in the early stages of drafts. Normally, betting on high-volume veteran RBs with questionable efficiency inside bad offenses still costs a top-50 pick.
Not anymore!
One of just six RBs to post top-12 finishes in PPR points per game in both 2021 and 2022, Conner has suffered an unwarranted 50-pick ADP drop compared to where he was going in 2021 drafts (RB15, pick 35).
Still not sold? Worried about Kyler Murray’s (knee) recovery and the likelihood that this is one of the league’s very worst scoring offenses?
We already got a preview of this situation in Conner’s final four games of 2022 that featured noted world-beating QBs Colt McCoy, David Blough, and Trace McSorley under center in an offense that never scored 20-plus points in any of the games:
- Week 14: 15-85-1 rushing, 6-29-0 receiving, PPR RB5 (95% snaps)
- Week 15: 16-63-1, 3-28-0, RB12 (91%)
- Week 16: 15-79-1, 7-41-0, RB4 (97%)
- Week 17: 16-79-0, 3-31-0, RB15 (55% - left early with a shin injury)
I’d be a lot more concerned about the new coaching staff not handing Conner the same sort of every-down role if the team had literally added a single RB in either free agency or the draft—but they didn’t!
Historically, more RBs turn in high-end fantasy success in bad scoring offenses than any other position; Conner has no business going four-plus rounds behind guys like Najee Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson.
Commanders RB Antonio Gibson
- ADP: RB32 (pick 101.1)
- Ian’s rank: RB28 (92)
There are three key variables that have caused me to draft Gibson more than any RB not named Jaylen Warren:
- Newfound pass-game opportunity: Longtime scat back J.D. McKissic remains an unrestricted free agent. He trailed only Austin Ekeler, Christian McCaffrey, and Alvin Kamara in targets per game from 2020 to 2022. New OC Eric Bienemy helped oversee a Chiefs offense that fed Jerick McKinnon 71 targets last season.
- Lack of incoming competition: Washington only added sixth-rounder Chris Rodriguez to the RB room. The grinder caught just 20 passes in five seasons at Kentucky and is a far bigger threat to Brian Robinson’s early-down work than anything else.
- Steady drumbeat of good news: Last August, Gibson truthers were forced to stomach updates that the former third-round pick was suddenly facing a new reality as a return specialist. Suddenly, head coach Ron Rivera can’t stop finding different good things to say about the team’s 25-year-old back.
The floor for Gibson is as a PPR-friendly RB3 inside of a bad Washington offense.
The ceiling if Robinson misses time is as a poor man’s CMC—except this time Washington might really mean it.
Patriots RB Pierre Strong Jr.
- ADP: RB62 (pick 199.3)
- Ian’s rank: RB51 (170)
The Patriots’ ever-evolving backfield has produced more than a few quality fantasy backs over the years, but the turnover has been quite frequent. Their No. 1 RB in PPR points per game since 2010 has been as follows (minimum 8 games):
- 2022: Rhamondre Stevenson (RB10)
- 2021: Damien Harris (RB20)
- 2020: Rex Burkhead (RB35)
- 2019: James White (RB23)
- 2018: White (RB9)
- 2017: Burkhead (RB18)
- 2016: LeGarrette Blount (RB15)
- 2015: Blount (RB38)
- 2014: Shane Vereen (RB31)
- 2013: Vereen (RB8)
- 2012: Stevan Ridley (RB20)
- 2011: BenJarvus Green-Ellis (RB30)
- 2010: Green-Ellis (RB20)
I doubt Strong overtakes Rhamondre Stevenson for pass-down work and emerges as the offense’s new James White—although recent reports did theorize that the rising second-year back is on the “James White track” when it comes to playing time.
Aug 19, 2022; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Bailey Zappe (4) hands off the ball to running back Pierre Strong Jr. (35) against the Carolina Panthers in the second half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
Last season, Damien Harris actually had more carries (94) than Stevenson (88) in the eight games that the now-Bills RB was healthy enough to play 15-plus snaps in; there’s a non-zero chance that Strong inherits far more rushing volume than his ADP seems to be giving him credit for.
And God forbid Stevenson is forced to miss any time? One might say Strong has a strong chance (sorry) to work ahead of guys like Ty Montgomery, Kevin Harris, and J.J. Taylor as the group’s undisputed lead back.
Steelers WR Diontae Johnson
- ADP: WR32 (pick 62.9)
- Ian’s rank: WR28 (54)
The rationale for fading Johnson at his currently depressed ADP has to come down to people (not me) believing that the 27-year-old WR is not good at football.
A few pieces of evidence that scholars (me) have compiled in an effort to retort this outrageous claim:
- Johnson’s scoreless 2022 campaign didn’t provide high-end counting stats, but his first read target share and overall WR score (ESPN) put him in the company of guys like Stefon Diggs, Tyler Lockett, and Tee Higgins.
- One only needs to go back 12 months to find a rather awesome 107-1161-8 campaign (WR8 in PPR points per game) that featured plenty of borderline erotic route-running ability.
- The Steelers signed up to pay Johnson $18.355 million per year—more than all but 13 players at the position.
Noted WR guru Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception profile of Johnson demonstrates just how good the veteran still was last season.
Priced far closer to his 2022 floor as opposed to his 2020 and 2021 ceiling, Johnson is my most-drafted WR this offseason and profiles as one of fantasy’s cheapest potential target hogs at the position.
Chargers TE Gerald Everett
- ADP: TE18 (pick 155.4)
- Ian’s rank: TE13 (140)
Everett is one of several players who probably aren’t getting enough credit for brilliant playoff performances when projecting ahead to 2022.
Seriously: Everett made three YAC plays during the Chargers' brutal Wild Card loss to the Jaguars that could take a lonely fantasy analyst from six to midnight in a hurry.
Including playoff production with everyone’s regular season fantasy production brings Everett to 9.6 PPR points per game—a mark that would have ranked 10th at the position last year and stands just half a PPR point per contest away from David Njoku.
One of the main knocks on Everett is seemingly in reference to the time that he was too tired to make a play on the football against the Chiefs, leading to a game-altering pick-six by Justin Herbert. Remember:
- This happened in Week 2 and didn’t impact Everett’s playing time for the rest of the season.
- Everett was tired in the first place because he had just caught back-to-back passes for 33 yards to get the offense on the goal line.
- The veteran TE literally asked for a breather before the play and shouldn’t have been leaned on in that position in the first place.
While it’s possible that Everett finishes fifth in this offense in targets behind Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Quentin Johnston, and Austin Ekeler, Fantasy Life projections have Herbert leading the league in pass attempts on his way to posting top-five marks in yards and TDs through the air.
Everett is priced embarrassingly low and I honestly don’t know why. So yeah, draft him!
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