Arbitrage Fantasy Football Picks. Finding Upside Late in Drafts.

One especially cool best ball-related piece of advice has stuck with me this summer:

“What can I get in this part of the draft that I cannot get later?”

The man responsible for this lovely quote is none other than Best Ball Mania III winner Pat Kerrane, who I also recently had the pleasure of drafting with (check it out!).

While Pat was originally referencing the TE position, this idea can and should be applied to every pick in every round. At least having an idea of the best positional ranges to target helps mightily with tiebreakers throughout the process.

Investopedia describes “arbitrage” as: “The act of buying a security in one market and simultaneously selling it in another market at a higher price.” While we aren’t technically selling anything, changing “securities” to “draft picks,” and “markets” to “rounds,” helps demonstrate the obvious allure of obtaining similar archetype fantasy draft picks at a far cheaper cost.

That is today’s goal: What fantasy assets might be going a bit too high in drafts when considering the opportunity cost and availability of similar talents later?

Don’t get it twisted: I’m not saying NEVER to draft any of the listed expensive picks—stacks and the reality that every draft is different can make every player a value at the right ADP. Still, in a perfect world I would rather have the cheaper options listed due to the at times vast difference in total cost.

Franchise QB in a talented offense with the ability to provide a decent rushing floor

• Expensive picks: 
  • Chargers QB Justin Herbert (QB7, pick 54.6 ADP) 
  • Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence (QB8, pick 66.6)
• Arbitrage pick: 
  • Seahawks QB Geno Smith (QB15, pick 114.4)

Maybe this comparison already sounds ridiculous to you, a scholar.

Hear me out and just take a quick look at the fantasy production from each in 2022:

• Smith: 17.9 fantasy points per game (QB9)
• Lawrence: 17.4 (QB11)
• Herbert: 16.4 (QB15)

The common knock on Smith seems to be the reality that he faded a bit down the stretch. Of course, that discussion always seems to conveniently leave out the fact that he faced a rather brutal five-game schedule featuring the 49ers (x2), Chiefs (in Arrowhead), Jets (consensus top-tier pass defense), and Rams (worst of the group, but always seem to play the Seahawks tough).

Ultimately, it’s a lot easier to believe that 2022 was more of a sign of things to come than a fluke when you consider the Seahawks have surrounded themselves with one of the league’s very best groups of pass-catchers. 

This WR trio should be inside anybody’s top five, while there are also playmakers at RB and TE—Smith doesn’t need to be a hero in order for the league’s reigning ninth-ranked scoring offense to boom once again.

I’d certainly bet more on Herbert and Lawrence out-performing Smith for the next five seasons, but for just 2023? It’s close—and that is not reflected by the four-plus round difference in ADP. This still seems to be a result of the Seahawks being rumored offseason players in the QB trade and NFL Draft market…but nothing ever came to fruition!

Seattle can get out of Smith’s three-year, $75 million contract easily enough after this season if they want; just realize for 2023, the reigning top-10 fantasy signal-caller is buried in a tier of far less mobile pocket passers in offenses with fewer high-powered skill-position weapons. 

Not bad for a guy usually going off the board after the top-36 RBs, top-54 WRs, and top-10 TEs.

Lead RB in a high-powered offense with newfound early-round competition

• Expensive pick: 
  • Jaguars RB Travis Etienne (RB13, pick 40.1 ADP)
• Arbitrage pick: 
  • Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker (RB16, pick 52.4)

The world has decided that second-round RB Zach Charbonnet is a far bigger threat to Walker than third-round RB Tank Bigsby is to Etienne.

• ADP before the draft: Walker (RB6), Etienne (RB12)
• ADP at the moment: Walker (RB16), Etienne (RB13)

Charbonnet was indeed picked a full 36 picks earlier than Bigsby. The UCLA product also scored a bit higher than the Auburn talent in Dwain McFarland’s Rookie RB Super Model.

Jan 14, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III (9) runs away from San Francisco 49ers linebacker Dre Greenlaw (57) for a second quarter touchdown run during a wild card game at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

I’m not arguing that adding Charbonnet to the equation is NOT bad for Walker. Rather, folks shouldn’t be so quick to write off the potential for Bigsby to eat into some of Etienne’s most fantasy-friendly work.

Pass-down usage: The 25th overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft didn’t exactly demonstrate the sort of high-level receiving upside that many thought was on the table. PFF’s fourth-lowest graded RB (49.8) out of 47 qualified backs, Etienne had some bad drops on top of his five fumbles. I also still have not heard a good reason why Jamycal Hasty out-snapped Etienne (35 vs. 26) during the Jaguars’ Divisional Round loss to the Chiefs, other than the potential reality that head coach Doug Pederson prefers the veteran scat back in pass pro.

Goal-line usage: There’s more concern when looking at how Etienne performed in terms of cashing in carries inside the five-yard line into scores. Just four RBs failed to convert at least 30% of their goal-line carries into scores among the league’s 25 most-used goal-line backs:

• Devin Singletary (28.6%)
• Rhamondre Stevenson (28.6%)
• Etienne (20%)
• Kenneth Walker (11%)

Obviously, these same concerns are why Walker went from being an upside RB1 to mid-tier RB2—and that makes sense! I just have a far tougher time ignoring these same concerns and paying a premium for ETN when he’s being priced alongside legit upside WR2s and top-five QBs.

Potential workhorse RB with personal efficiency and offensive environment concerns

• Expensive pick: 
  • Steelers RB Najee Harris (RB12, pick 37.6 ADP)
• Arbitrage picks: 
  • Rams RB Cam Akers (RB22, pick 69.3)
  • Buccaneers RB Rachaad White (RB26, pick 83.5)
  • Cardinals RB James Conner (RB28, pick 87.3)

All of these RBs were bad last season:

• Harris: 75.2 PFF Rush Grade (No. 30 among 42 RBs), 61.9 Receiving Grade (No. 19)
• Akers: 80.4 Rush Grade (No. 19), 61.5 Receiving Grade (No. 22)
• White: 65.1 Rush Grade (No. 39), 69.2 Receiving Grade (No. 8)
• Conner: 76.1 Rush Grade (No. 27), 51.4 Receiving Grade (No. 33)

Of course, volume is king in fantasy land, so Harris (RB19 in PPR points per game) and Conner (RB9) were able to parlay their season-long workhorse roles into plenty of success. Akers (overall PPR RB4 during final six weeks) and White (RB9 in only game without Leonard Fournette) also put up big-time numbers in their more condensed stretches as the offense’s featured back.

None of these backfields added meaningful free-agent competition during the offseason or drafted a day-one or two RB. There are still some big-name free agents out there, but for the time being, each back is tentatively expected to handle a fairly robust bell-cow role in these underwhelming offenses.

Does Harris deserve to go in Round 3 or 4? It’s not egregious. He’s finished around this range in each of the past two seasons and should continue to work ahead of Jaylen Warren as the lead back, even if the rising second-year backup did manage to outperform Harris in virtually every metric last year even while facing the same rate of carries with eight-plus defenders in the box.

This mention is less about Harris’s price being overly expensive and more about just how relatively cheap these near identical archetypes are at the moment. Pulling the trigger on Harris means costing yourself an extra pick on a top-20 WR or top-five QB—the top-36 WRs and top-eight QBs are typically all off the board by the time you get to the most expensive arbitrage play (Akers).

Pass-catching-friendly RB with theoretical three-down ability

• Expensive pick: 
  • Eagles RB D’Andre Swift (RB23, pick 79 ADP)
• Arbitrage pick: 
  • Commanders RB Antonio Gibson (RB32, pick 100.1)

The assumption that Swift will take over this Eagles backfield is a tricky one.

On the one hand, the ex-Lions talent has posted three consecutive top-15 finishes in PPR points per game over the past three seasons, flashing as a receiving threat along the way.

On the other hand, dual-threat QBs make for pretty spectacular fantasy assets, but their tendency to 1.) Scramble instead of checking down, and 2.) Factor into the rushing equation near the goal line, has made it tough for their offense’s RBs. 

This is why offenses like the Eagles, Bills, Seahawks, and Ravens rank among the league’s bottom-12 offenses in expected RB PPR points per game despite boasting a top-12 scoring offense over the past three seasons. Eagles RBs rank just 28th in targets over the past two seasons.

The public might be overweighting just how fantasy-friendly this offense is for the RBs. That’s even before considering if Philly’s other offseason addition to the backfield might simply be the better overall option.

The lack of guaranteed money ($500,000) in Rashaad Penny’s contract could be a sign that he’s not a lock to make the roster—but then again, his career-long rushing success certainly seems to make him a better fit to take over Miles Sanders’s early-down role.

Sep 11, 2022; Landover, Maryland, USA; Washington Commanders running back Antonio Gibson (24) carries the ball against the Jacksonville Jaguars during the second half at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Scott Taetsch-USA TODAY Sports

There’s a path to success for Swift here: He’s not on my “Do not draft even if there’s a fire” list by any stretch of the imagination, especially with his ADP now falling behind fantasy’s top-40 WRs in more drafts than not.

Rather, this is meant to demonstrate just how mispriced Gibson still happens to be based on his projected role as the Commanders’ 1.B back with a stranglehold on pass-down work.

I recently wrote about why Gibson was one of six players I simply can’t stop drafting at their current ADP:

“There are three key variables that have caused me to draft Gibson more than any RB not named Jaylen Warren:

1. Newfound pass-game opportunity: Longtime scat back J.D. McKissic remains an unrestricted free agent. He trailed only Austin Ekeler, Christian McCaffrey, and Alvin Kamara in targets per game from 2020 to 2022. New OC Eric Bienemy helped oversee a Chiefs offense that fed Jerick McKinnon 71 targets last season.
2. Lack of incoming competition: Washington only added sixth-rounder Chris Rodriguez to the RB room. The grinder caught just 20 passes in five seasons at Kentucky and is a far bigger threat to Brian Robinson’s early-down work than anything.
3. Steady drumbeat of good news: Last August, Gibson truthers were forced to stomach updates that the former third-round pick was suddenly facing a new reality as a return specialist. Suddenly, head coach Ron Rivera can’t stop finding different good things to say about the team’s 25-year-old back.

The floor for Gibson is as a PPR-friendly RB3 inside of a bad Washington offense.

The ceiling, if Robinson misses time, is as a poor man’s CMC—except this time Washington might really mean it.”

Certainly, the Eagles > Commanders when it comes to real-life points, but in recent history the expected backfield points have been firmly in control of Washington. Gibson remains my single-favorite RB value going outside of the draft’s top-100 picks.

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Talented No. 1 WR in run-first offense with questionable passer under center

• Expensive pick: 
  • Bears WR D.J. Moore (WR26, pick 47 ADP)
• Arbitrage picks: 
  • Colts WR Michael Pittman (WR33, pick 63.4) 
  • Titans WR Treylon Burks (WR36, pick 68.2)

Each offense’s “expected” WR PPR points per game from last season, meaning just opportunity, not realized production:

• Bears: 26.3 expected PPR points per game to WRs (No. 28)
• Colts: 34 (No. 14)
• Titans: 22 (No. 32)

The now-Anthony Richardson-led Colts are expected to work as one of the league’s more run-heavy offenses under the tutelage of former Eagles OC Shane Steichen, although it’s not a guarantee.

In addition to the run-first philosophy concerns: These offenses could simply struggle to put points up on the board…period. Bottom-10 scoring offenses are far less likely to enable high-end fantasy WRs compared to RBs and TEs.

Moore deserves to be going in this WR3 tier and is an especially enticing target when you can pick him and Justin Fields together at the 4-5 turn. It’d make sense if an improved passing environment and year-three leap from Fields lead to Chicago throwing the ball more than they did in 2022; just realize they have a long way to go before even approaching league-average marks.

I agree that DJM is more talented than Pittman and Burks, although that’s a pricey premium to pay for just an upgrade in talent. This is especially true when comparing against Pittman, who is good at football and has also found himself dealing with less-than-ideal QB situations over the last two years…but still managed to out-score the ex-Panthers WR in PPR points per game on both occasions.

Burks doesn’t have the same demonstrated production at the professional level, but he did flash by burning Jaire Alexander and showing off some serious acrobatic skills downfield. There’s zero competition in Tennessee, and Ryan Tannehill is a far more proven passer than either Fields or Richardson. The Titans’ undisputed No. 1 WR has become one of my favorite sixth-round picks with Diontae Johnson now rising to the fifth round.

Talented TE with a chance to work as offense’s undisputed No. 1 pass-game option

• Expensive pick: 
  • Ravens TE Mark Andrews (TE2, pick 29.7 ADP)
• Arbitrage pick: 
  • Giants TE Darren Waller (TE7, pick 80.6)

It makes sense to rank Andrews ahead of Waller: He’s younger and better inside of an offense that helped him out-score Travis f*cking Kelce in fantasy football two years ago.

But are we positive Andrews deserves to go 50-plus picks before the same man who out-scored him in PPR points per game in 2020 and tied him in 2019?

The only TEs to average over 15 PPR points per game over the past five seasons: Kelce (x5, lol), George Kittle (x3), Andrews (x1), Waller (x1), and Zach Ertz (x1).

Both Andrews and Waller have proven capable of being Kelce-esque in fantasy land at their best. Lamar Jackson won an MVP and led the NFL in TD passes (36) in 2019; just realize in 2022 it was Jones who boasted superior passing numbers in completion percentage over expected (+2.3% vs. -0.6%) and finished awfully close in EPA per dropback (+0.09 vs. +0.11).

Maybe new offensive coordinator Todd Monken has no intention of changing the Ravens’ passing-game pecking order, although there’s quite a bit of newfound competition with Rashod Bateman healthy alongside first-round WR Zay Flowers and high-priced free agent addition Odell Beckham Jr..

As for Waller, he now finds himself in a passing game in dire need of a true alpha receiver considering their current starting trio is expected to feature Isaiah Hodgins, Darius Slayton, and Parris Campbell. All due respect to injured WRs Sterling Shepard and Wan’Dale Robinson as well as third-round rookie Jalin Hyatt.

Maybe Waller won’t have the same chemistry with Jones as he did with Derek Carr, but offensive coordinator Mike Kafka certainly learned a thing or two about featuring his TE in the passing game during his time as the Chiefs QB coach and passing game coordinator from 2018 to 2021.

Early Fantasy Life projections have Waller leading the Giants in targets and it’s not particularly close. I believe Waller is fully deserving to join Andrews, T.J. Hockenson, Kyle Pitts, Dallas Goedert, and George Kittle in a big upside TE1 tier after Kelce—the ex-Raiders TE’s status as the cheapest option of the group has him sitting pretty as one of my favorite players to draft of the offseason.

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