Rookies are often considered the skeleton key to fantasy football, and rightfully so. They are usually the most mispriced players, so hitting on the right rookies can supercharge your fantasy squad.
With the NFL Draft now officially behind us, we can really dig in and consider how landing spots fit with talent evaluations to help us predict which rookies are poised for success in 2024 and who faces an uphill battle to fantasy relevance.
For this article, I've broken things down between the early rounds (rounds 1-3) and the late rounds (Rounds 4-7) as our expectations should be different for each group. It's also important to note that I'm only considering the path to 2024 production, as there are plenty of players who are in great long-term landing spots but don't have the easiest path to producing as a rookie (think Rome Odunze).
It would have been too easy to call the landing spots for Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers the best, but where's the fun in that? I would also argue that their potential target dominance is already baked into their best ball ADP, so I wanted to go slightly more under the radar when picking my favorite and least favorite landing spots for 2024 rookie production.
Early Rounds: Best Landing Spots
Xavier Worthy - Kansas City Chiefs (Underdog Fantasy ADP: 66.4)
Any WR that gets to play with Patrick Mahomes is set up for success, but that's especially true when they are drafted in the first round shortly after setting the 40-yard dash record at the NFL Combine. Kansas City has been attempting to rebuild their WR room ever since trading Tyreek Hill, and it looks like they finally have a group that won't hold the offense back.
There is some real target competition in this offense with Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice both slated to play prominent roles and free agent acquisition Marquise Brown in the mix as well. However, Rice is facing a suspension while both Kelce and Brown are coming off down seasons from both a target-earning and efficiency standpoint.
Worthy has a strong enough production profile to make me think there is more to his game than past speed merchants (looking at you, John Ross). His big play ability should make him an instant impact player who can be valuable for fantasy even on limited volume, but I also believe he has more target upside than it would first appear when looking at the depth chart.
Roman Wilson - Pittsburgh Steelers (Underdog Fantasy ADP: 158.1)
If any of the landing spots in this article are going to be controversial, it is this one. I definitely have some concerns about the Pittsburgh offense overall, but there are a lot of targets up for grabs after the departure of Diontae Johnson.
Jan 8, 2024; Houston, TX, USA; Michigan Wolverines wide receiver Roman Wilson (1) runs with the ball against the Washington Huskies during the third quarter in the 2024 College Football Playoff national championship game at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
It's tough to trust an Arthur Smith offense, but the Steelers selected Roman Wilson in the third round and he projects as their starting slot WR right out of the gate. Although George Pickens will be the top target on the team, he doesn't command huge volume the way that Johnson did and the depth chart behind him is pretty weak. Van Jefferson and Pat Freiermuth are serviceable veterans, but I expect Wilson to be able to quickly leapfrog them in the target pecking order. His ability to win underneath and stretch the field vertically will make him a valuable target for either Russell Wilson or Justin Fields, and I actually think a run-heavy offense with lots of play action can help get the best out of either QB.
The long-term upside of this landing spot will largely depend on how the Steelers address the QB situation, but for 2024 Wilson is in a position to step in and see meaningful volume right away.
Early Rounds: Worst Landing Spots
Brock Bowers - Las Vegas Raiders (Underdog Fantasy ADP: 86.3)
I still love Bowers from a dynasty perspective, but going to the Raiders at 13th overall is not ideal for his rookie output. Not only is Las Vegas expected to be a run-heavy team, they are also likely to have below-average QB play and pretty strong competition for targets. The Raiders' top two receivers from last season (Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers) are returning after combining to see more than 50% of the team's targets. Bowers will also have to compete with fellow TE Michael Mayer for snaps and targets.
Going in the top half of the first round was still good to see, but there is no denying that Bowers has stiff target competition in an offense that doesn't project to score a ton of points.
Ricky Pearsall - San Francisco 49ers (Underdog Fantasy ADP: 138.5)
In the intro I mentioned that some players landed in great spots for their long-term value while having a tougher path to production in year one, and Pearsall falls into that camp. With a trade of Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel looking much less likely post-draft, the depth chart ahead of Pearsall is quite daunting. In addition to the WRs just mentioned, both George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey will also command plenty of targets, which makes Pearsall the fifth option at best. He'll also have to compete for snaps with Jauan Jennings, who is a trusted veteran and a great blocking receiver.
Going at the end of the first round is a great sign for how the 49ers view Pearsall, and there are few offensive systems as fantasy-friendly as Shanahan's scheme in San Francisco, but I struggle to see many scenarios where the rookie will play a big role in 2024.
Late Rounds: Best Landing Spots
Kimani Vidal - Los Angeles Chargers (Underdog Fantasy ADP: 182.0)
The Chargers were widely expected to spend a premium pick on the RB position after only signing Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins this offseason. They ended up only using a sixth-round pick on Kimani Vidal out of Troy, but they seem to really like him. We also know Jim Harbaugh is committed to building a run-first team with a strong offensive line, so we should be interested in the LAC backfield.
Oct 14, 2023; West Point, New York, USA; Troy Trojans running back Kimani Vidal (28) carries the ball against the Army Black Knights during the second half at Michie Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Danny Wild-USA TODAY Sports
Vidal handled a massive workload in college, racking up 873 touches across four seasons. While that doesn't bode well for his longevity in the NFL, it does show he can handle as many touches as a team is willing to give him. If he proves he can play at the NFL level, it is easy to imagine scenarios where he ends up being the primary ball carrier, either due to injuries or simply outplaying the mediocre veterans ahead of him.
Troy Franklin - Denver Broncos (Underdog Fantasy ADP: 137.5)
This one is a bit trickier because Troy Franklin was one of the biggest fallers at the NFL Draft when compared to his expected draft capital. The NFL clearly told us they don't think as highly of Franklin as the fantasy community does. At the same time, there is a lot to like about his landing spot and prospect profile. Denver has just one established pass catcher in Courtland Sutton, and Franklin is instantly reunited with his college QB Bo Nix.
Over the past two seasons at Oregon, Franklin put up more than 2,000 receiving yards and 23 TDs as Nix's top target. That built-in chemistry should help Franklin climb the depth chart quickly and make him a trusted weapon for the rookie signal caller. If Franklin turns out to be more talented than his fourth-round draft capital suggests, he has a clear path to one of the most productive seasons after the elite rookie WRs.
Late Rounds: Worst Landing Spots
Braelon Allen/Isaiah Davis - New York Jets (Underdog Fantasy ADPs: 192.8/216.0)
Most day-three RBs are unlikely to receive a large workload as rookies, but there are still better or worse landing spots for the late-round prospects we like. For me, both Allen and Davis were RB prospects I liked going into the draft process. To see them end up on the same team was less than ideal, but for that team to be the New York Jets who already have an elite RB in Breece Hall and an intriguing backup in Izzy Abanikanda was a worst-case scenario.
There is a chance one of the rookies can emerge as the primary backup to Hall, but we likely won't have an idea of who that is until the preseason. Even when the depth chart becomes clearer, the value of the backup role will be purely contingent value if Hall were to get injured. I had hoped to see both backs land in a situation where they could work into a role over the course of the season, but now I believe they are both likely to be irrelevant for 2024 best ball.
