Live Best Ball Mania IV drafts on Underdog can destroy all sense of strategy. Threading the needle of building a top-notch roster over 18 rounds with 30 seconds to think can seem daunting. Especially when someone takes a player you wanted, or you forget how to use the queue function while talking to a friend.
It happens to the best of us. Or, maybe just me. So, I simplified the draft.
We know the vibe of the draft is changing just by looking at the players available each round. But instead of zooming in on specific names, I broke the 18-round gauntlet into phases. Within each, I used historical data to find trends to build a process to tackle each portion.
Notes on process
I used the pick-by-pick data from Best Ball Mania II and III to find late-round targets, but I wanted to avoid specific names here. Positional allocation, or how often managers draft a certain position, gives us a stronger starting point. And histograms help visualize when folks are taking their shot.
In 2022, QB ADP shifted forward (and we’re seeing a similar trend this year) as gamers clamored to lock in a top passer. But while the market may have pushed us into the pick, we needed confirmation that the strategy was viable. Advance rates can give us some insight.
* - Round Filter: QB1 selected before Round 6
4for4’s Underdog Roster Construction Tool allows users to scan rosters created across the last three seasons to see how often (and how deep) they made it into the playoffs. And with a baseline advance of 16.7%, taking a QB before Round 6 and stopping at three total was optimal.
So, with an understanding of when and if it is viable to select certain positions, we can tackle each phase of Underdog drafts for the 2023 season.
Before we dive in, make sure to sign up for Underdog Fantasy so you can put these strategies into practice! Click below for a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up!
Opening rounds (1-6)
Generally, ADP acts like bumpers on a bowling lane to control any nervousness of your first pick. Sure, we can debate if Stefon Diggs should be going behind A.J. Brown, but both have weekly top-12 upside.
However, the rules of the first six rounds have changed.
Dec 17, 2022; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) runs with the ball against the Miami Dolphins during the second half at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports
Typically, the skill positions got top billing with a quick side-eye to the elite TEs. Regardless, you could see Anchor RB or Zero RB teams brewing after a few picks.
But now, signal callers have entered the early-round chat, with more getting clicked than in years past. But coincidentally, it’s mostly the same guys we’ve been interested in since 2020.
- 2020: Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson
- 2021: Patrick Mahomes
- 2022: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen
- 2023: Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson
Those four make up over half of the overall QB1 finishes during the ’22 regular season alone. All but Lamar averaged over 24 fantasy PPG. But their new price tag begs the question:
Should you follow the market and secure an elite QB?
In short, yes. Granted, it shouldn’t be your only approach to team building. But past tournaments shed some light on the matter.
Drafters that got into the tournament followed the seasonal draft trends. In 2021, when the latter half of the early rounds was the haven for QB selections, playoff teams matched the duds in terms of when they would start looking for a passer. The same was the case the following year despite the cost bump. And their playoff advance rates emphasize the importance of adapting to new trends.
Taking one passer in the early rounds, and having two total by the end of the draft, barely paid off in BBM2 with a 17.0% advance rate. It all changed in ’22, and more managers reaped the benefits of their aggression.
With other ADP trends allowing you to fill in your other roster spots later, vying for an elite stack early on can be an optimal way to start your draft.
Mid-rounds (7-12)
I’ll exit the early rounds with an elite TE if I can. As Dwain McFarland describes Travis Kelce, he’s a cheat code, and Mark Andrews isn’t too far behind him despite the added target competition in Baltimore.
But your draft slot typically determines if you can safely acquire either. So, sometimes you’re forced to wait.
Dallas Goedert became my seventh-round savior. He fit the TE archetype I preferred while allowing me to follow an optimal early-round build. But favoring him influenced similar roster constructions, limiting my exposure to other players. So, heading into ’23, I had to know:
If you miss the early TEs, are the mid-rounds a time to grab one?
Yes, but not necessarily when you think. I thought I was slick targeting Goedert, but drafters have eyed the start of the middle rounds for the last two seasons.
Apparently, EVERYONE wanted to draft a TE as soon as their seventh-round pick arrived. You’d need to combine the relative frequencies of the next four rounds to equal how often Goedert or T.J. Hockenson got the nod from fantasy managers. However, the advance rates didn’t match our enthusiasm for those guys.
It didn’t matter if you drafted a total of two or three TEs last year. If you started selecting them in the seventh, your playoff advance rate fell below the baseline of 16.7%. Simply put, it was more profitable to wait.
And while taking a TE right at the start of the middle rounds was optimal in ’21 (both TE builds were above the baseline advance rate), you can see the advance rates trend up toward the 12th round. So if you add opportunity cost into the equation, again, waiting paid dividends.
But we (myself included) “double count” situations. Drafting Goedert got you exposure to Jalen Hurts. Dalton Schultz could lead the Cowboys’ skill players in red-zone targets. Their environments (already accounted for in their price) were alluring. Meanwhile, later options could get us close to the seventh-round kings.
Embracing uncertainty isn’t easy. But finding arbitrage value at multi-round discounts can give you an edge at the TE position.
Favorite Targets: Dalton Kincaid (ADP: 123.9), Cole Kmet (141.2), Greg Dulcich (143.8)
Late rounds (13-18)
Drafters try and take swings at RB and WR in the late rounds. They’ve likely completed their primary stacks and are paying closer attention to Week 17 matchups to correlate their lineup. But after a dozen picks, taking a step back to assess your roster's needs can make a difference.
Are RBs worth drafting this late? If so, how many?
Absolutely! A 14th-round pick last season could have netted you Jamaal Williams, who gyrated his hips all the way into the record books. But we didn’t know how his role would shake out. The same was the case for most of his late-round brethren.
Using the BBM3 playoffs as a proxy, we can see how close the draft rates were for RBs and WRs past the 12th round.
And herein lies the problem. As we throw darts, we see more rushers with “league-winning” upside and want to add more potential to our roster. But, in reality, you may already have what you need.
Advance rates over the last two seasons highlight the need to have most of our RBs already on our roster by the 13th round. As a result, one to two long shots at RB are our best bet. I identified ambiguous backfields and RBs capable of handling a majority share of the workload as archetypes worth targeting late. Regardless, keep your overall positional limit in mind (5-6 total) when planning out the last few picks.
Favorite Targets: Jeff Wilson (ADP: 169.0), Chuba Hubbard (181.3), Tyjae Spears (184.7)
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