You might want a break from drafting. It's a reasonable thing to feel. Trust me, I held out as long as I could. 

But for better or worse, drafting is now a year-round endeavor.

And I'm not talking about mock drafts, either. I'm talking about contests with $2M prize pools and a $250,000 first-place price.

With best ball exploding, our friends over at Underdog have packed their lobby with a variety of 2025 Pre-Draft Best Ball contests.

In addition to the aforementioned contest (The Big Board - $10/entry), there is also The Little Board ($3/entry; $100,000 to first), The Bigger Board ($100/entry; $30,000 to first), and The Biggest Board ($250/entry; $30,000 to first).

Regardless of which contest you might dabble in, drafting fantasy football teams in February requires some specific nuance and strategic considerations.

Below, I outline five macro strategy tips for drafting teams in the dead of winter.

ICYMI: Last week I outlined 10 surprising ADPs. 

Avoid Zeros

It might seem obvious, but the biggest advantage for a best ball team that makes it to the Week 17 finals is to have a fully active roster with no dead roster spots.

It is the single biggest driver of expected value (h/t Mike Leone's original Best Ball Manifesto).

Of course, some of these variables are impossible to control. There is simply no way to forecast injuries. We can't even do this one week in advance, much less 10 months in advance.

But there are things we can do to avoid zeros, which mainly include not taking on unnecessary risk.

Some examples:

  • I'm not touching Travis Kelce at his current ADP (10th Round), which I described in more detail here. Sure, he's a slight value if he doesn't retire. But if he does? That's a zero in your lineup at an already fragile position.
     
  • Steer away from QBs who could get benched and/or aren't guaranteed to play 17 games. There will be a time and place to load up on the Justin Fields of the world if we get confirmation they will be a starter, but it's better to proceed with caution this early in the offseason.
     
  • Be careful with players who have ambiguous injury timelines. We all love guys like Christian Watson and Jonathon Brooks, but there's a real chance they don't contribute in 2025.

As the offseason progresses, we can ramp up how much risk we are taking on in exchange for upside, but right now the best way to position our teams for success is to stack up as many "sure bets" as possible.

Embrace The Mystery Box Rookies

I realize the irony in going from a tip that involves being cautious to encouraging you to embrace uncertainty with the rookies, but rookies are actually a much "safer" bet in best ball than you might think.

In these top-heavy contests where all of the money is distributed in Week 17, rookies routinely serve as the best asymmetric upside bet to make. That's because as a cohort, their roles (and fantasy production) expand as the season progresses.

And if you don't believe me, what if I told you that the winning Big Board team last year had 10 rookies on it:

Of course, last year was an insane rookie class and it'll be hard for 2025 to produce an exact encore, but the point stands—rookies represent the highest upside selections you can make in early contests where ADP is otherwise mostly efficient.

Prioritize 3QB & 3TE Builds

This tip somewhat dovetails with "avoiding zeros," but it also is specific to the Big Board roster settings.

Unlike the post-draft contests with 18 rounds (like Best Ball Mania and The Puppy), the Big Board contest features 20 rounds.

With two extra roster spots, I prefer using them at the onesie positions—QB and TE.

In post-draft contests as we get closer to the start of the season, I will be much more willing to embrace 2-QB and 2-TE builds, but they are extremely fragile right now for two main reasons:

  1. Injuries will happen between now and the start of the season. Ideally, you want to avoid going a stretch with only one possible contributor to your starting lineup, which is what would happen in 2QB or 2TE builds that suffer an injury.
     
  2. We don't know the schedule right now, which means it's possible to land on two QBs or two TEs who have the same bye week. Taking a zero at the position for a single week–especially at QB–will reduce your chances of advancing a team to the playoffs.

I should mention that you still want to remain sensitive to the draft capital you allocate to the position and let that dictate how many players you select at the onesie position.

If you grab both Josh Allen and Joe Burrow in the first six rounds of your draft, I'd be done at the position. Same deal if you take both Brock Bowers and Trey McBride at the top of your draft.

Instead, the takeaway here is that I'd try to lean into waiting at QB and loading up on three of them in the sweet spot (Rounds 8-12) so you can enjoy some safety at the position while also allocating your resources properly.

Lean Into Team Stacks

When we draft this early, we want to reduce the number of things we have to get right. Loading up on pieces of a single offense helps us accomplish that.

The thought is that if a team exceeds expectations, it's very likely that multiple players on that offense will be succeeding in tandem. A rising tide lifts all boats, if you will.

The most powerful way to utilize this concept is by attacking cheaper offenses. It's really hard to enjoy a windfall on an offense with expensive pieces (think the Eagles or Lions), but it's much easier to do with an undervalued offense.

My favorite team to do this with right now is the Jaguars. Outside of BTJ (ADP: 10.3), the rest of the offense goes after pick 100:

 

Even if one of Christian Kirk or Evan Engram isn't on the roster (there are some cut rumors floating around), there will still be some huge values out of this grouping.

Don't Get Buried By The WR Avalanche

The veteran RBs proved to be the skeleton key in 2024, which makes it tempting to chase the RB production again in 2025.

But WRs remain king on Underdog and if you don't prioritize getting a couple of them in the first fifty picks, you run the risk of building out a team without enough firepower at WR.

For reference, eight of the first 11 picks are WRs and 27 of the first 50 picks are WRs.

By pick 90 or so, you are in true flier/boom-bust range (Darnell Mooney, Cooper Kupp, etc.), so don't get left out in the cold making too many non-WR detours early.

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We will be here every week dishing out more best ball strategy, so be sure to check back. I also will be live-streaming drafts every Monday morning on my YouTube channel if you'd like to join.