As the decorated scholar Ian Hartitz once said, “Don’t hate the player, hate the ADP.”
Last week, I highlighted a handful of best ball value picks that I’m high on early this draft season, ADPs that are worth targeting now because they may not be this enticing for the entirety of the summer.
Now, I’m here to do the opposite—to hate the ADP, as Ian would say.
Fading a player doesn’t necessarily mean that I’ll have absolutely no exposure, but at their current costs, these are four of my best ball fades that I’m passing on in favor of better value.
Drake London, WR - Falcons
- Underdog ADP: 15.8 (WR10)
I’m stepping in front of a high-speed-rail-level hype train here in hopes of spreading my arms and stopping it. Let’s see how this goes.
With Kirk Cousins joining a revamped Falcons offense, there’s an understandable level of excitement after multiple frustrating seasons. As the WR1 that earned 22% of the team’s targets last year (22% TPRR), London has naturally been the highest-priced pass catcher in the offense.
The principle is hard to disagree with. Cousins supported one of the best wideouts in fantasy for the last handful of seasons, he can clearly turn London into a league-winning threat, right?
This isn’t apples to apples. Drake London is not Justin Jefferson. And this Atlanta Falcons offense is not the Minnesota Vikings offense.
Dec 10, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Drake London (5) catches a two-point conversion against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
When it comes to target competition, London will have his share. Kyle Pitts was second on the team with an 18% target share last season (18% TPRR). Coincidentally, this was tied with TE2 (TE1B, TE1A?) Jonnu Smith (18% TPRR) last season. With Smith relocated to Miami, Pitts has a massive opportunity to step into an even more dominant target-earning role. Mack Hollins was the Falcons WR2 last season, but only soaked up a 6% target share. The addition of Darnell Mooney is surely an upgrade at WR2. This is all in addition to the assumption that Bijan Robinson will be far more involved both in the run and passing game.
Again, London has flashed elite target-earning ability and the fantasy ceiling we’ve seen is hard to ignore. But a WR10 price tag after finishing as the WR39 in 2023 is expecting quite the dramatic upgrade, especially when you’re expecting more out of every other piece in the offense.
In his current ADP range, I’d much rather opt for a running back in an anchor RB or robust RB build (Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor), reach a few picks for a WR like Davante Adams, or wait to get my Falcons exposure via Pitts or Mooney at a far lower opportunity cost.
Chris Olave, WR - Saints
- Underdog ADP: 18.4 (WR12)
We’re seeing the same song and dance this year as we did last year, and my stance isn’t changing. A top-20 overall pick for Chris Olave feels like an incredibly irresponsible selection.
Sure, Michael Thomas is finally out of the picture, and while he commanded an 18% target share when active, he only played in the first 10 weeks of the season last year. A full offseason with QB Derek Carr will certainly help, but we also saw how difficult relying on a Carr-led offense can be for fantasy purposes last season.
Olave’s target-earning ability (25% target share, 25% TPRR) keeps the WR1 upside well within his range of outcomes, but he’s also already being drafted with the expectation that he’ll be one. His range of outcomes last season also didn’t showcase truly elite upside from a fantasy finish standpoint, as he only cracked the top 10 WRs in PPR formats once (Week 10, WR9), while falling outside of the top 30 WRs five separate times.
Similar to my stance on London, I simply don’t find myself pulling the trigger on Olave over other players in his vicinity like Adams or Brandon Aiyuk. Also similar to my London stance, I would simply prefer to take the discount on the Saints offense and load up on their WR2 in Rashid Shaheed at a much lower cost.
Josh Jacobs, RB - Packers
- Underdog ADP: 37.6 (RB10)
After a league-winning 2022 season that saw Jacobs finish as the RB4 in points per game in 0.5-PPR scoring, Jacobs came crashing down to earth in 2023, finishing as the RB18 in points per game.
Much has been made about whether or not the 393-touch 2022 season wore the tread off of the tires, and the efficiency drop in 2023 shows that may have been the case:
| Ru YPA | Broken Tackles | YAC per Att. | Att per BrkTkl | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 (17 G) | 4.9 | 31 | 2.4 | 11 |
| 2023 (13 G) | 3.5 | 10 | 1.5 | 23.3 |
Moving to a competent (and productive) offensive environment should help his efficiency numbers tick up, but it’s hard to envision Jacobs having as much of a stranglehold on the Packers backfield as he did in Vegas. While not the same player as Aaron Jones, the former Packers RB only saw 60% of the rushing attempts in three of his 11 regular season games, while backup AJ Dillon saw at least 40% in 12 of his 15 games.
The Packers retained Dillon and also spent day two draft capital on rookie running back MarShawn Lloyd, giving me enough pause around the uncertainty of Jacobs' role (coupled with last season’s lack of production) where I’m comfortably passing on him at his RB10 tag.
Xavier Worthy, WR - Chiefs
- Underdog ADP: 57.5 (WR32)
If you happened to miss the boat on drafting shares of Worthy prior to the draft, it’s best to wait until later in the offseason for his price to deflate, as it’s hard to imagine it soaring much higher than where it’s at (57.2) now.
Worthy landed in the picture-perfect spot with the Chiefs. He gets paired with the best quarterback in football on a team that was desperately in deep of a field-stretcher while also stepping into an immediate boost in role assuming Rashee Rice gets handed a suspension.
Dec 2, 2023; Arlington, TX, USA; Oklahoma State Cowboys cornerback Kale Smith (10) and Texas Longhorns wide receiver Xavier Worthy (1) in action during the game between the Texas Longhorns and the Oklahoma State Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
That’s the bull case. It’s a strong one for a rookie wideout with first-round draft capital (that the Chiefs traded up for, no less).
The bear case, however, is the lack of clarity on his role and the ADP that’s rising faster than Worthy’s 40 time at the combine. While Worthy is capable of stretching the field, he’s stepping into a role where he’s likely the number three pass-catcher…at best.
Travis Kelce is primed for a bounce-back as Patrick Mahomes' go-to receiver, while Marquise Brown comes in after tenures in both Baltimore and Arizona that demonstrated his ability to win at every level of the field. Plus, if Rice’s potential suspension only keeps him sidelined for a portion of the season, that’s another late-season obstacle you have to account for.
With the presumed WR1 on the same team (Brown) going nearly half a round later, I’ll default to passing on Worthy and the insanely wide range of potential outcomes at this price in favor of a teammate who’s stepping into far more certainty with his role.
