Best Ball Mania IV, Underdog Fantasy’s massive fantasy football contest with a $15,000,000 total prize pool, has now been live for over a month.
In previous strategy pieces, we outlined how to attack the unique structure of the tournament, recommended players to target, and explained why you need to focus on Week 17 matchups if you want to take down the $3,000,000 top prize.
Today, we are going to analyze three different ADP shifts we’ve seen in the contest since it opened and how you can take advantage of these trends in your future drafts.
Underdog QB ADP (Early May vs. Early June)
When Underdog’s way-too-early contest dropped in February–yes, well before the combine, Free Agency, and the NFL Draft–I was stunned to see how high the elite QBs were going in drafts.
Initially, this early QB love carried over to BBM IV with Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Jalen Hurts as mainstays in the second round. But the market is starting to walk back some of the signal-caller enthusiasm:
Why it’s happening: Recency bias slowly fading away.
After Elite QBs smashed in 2022, drafters initially decided to stop kicking the QB can down the road and lock up an elite option early in drafts because of their ability to separate from the rest of the position. There are only so few QBs who can realistically clear a 35-point ceiling in a game, and they are being drafted accordingly.
But drafters have also been quick to realize that their teams suffer at other positions–mainly WR–when they make an early detour for QB. This ADP movement feels like an implicit acknowledgment of that dynamic.
Jan 21, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) celebrates his touchdown with wide receiver A.J. Brown (11) during the second quarter against the New York Giants during an NFC divisional round game at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
How to play it: It’s tough for drafters who select Travis Kelce, Stefon Diggs, and A.J. Brown in Round 1 to not click on their QBs in Round 2, but it’s time to start pushing it. Instead, see if you can sneak in an additional star player while waiting to complete the stack in Round 3.
For all of the movers, check Dwain’s tweet.
Underdog TE ADP (Early May vs. Early June)
The TE market has also shifted over the last month:
Why it’s happening: Drafters are wisely either prioritizing Elite TEs and/or all of the cheap punt options available at the end of drafts. That has resulted in what I’m now going to call the TE Dead Zone in the middle rounds. There just isn’t much of a difference in talent from the Daltons of the world and the Dawson Knox’s (Kincaid’s teammate) and Trey McBride’s (another starting TE on a bad team) going much later in drafts.
How to play it: Make sure you aren’t reaching for any of the TEs going in the middle rounds. You don’t need to remove this pocket of the draft from your player pool entirely, but you should be prioritizing ADP values and/or QB/TE stacks with these more dicey selections. If you have Justin Fields at QB, try to push it with Cole Kmet (who the room will often give you at a discount). I don’t mind targeting a discounted Dalton Schultz either, especially if you need to set up a back door stacking option with CJ Stroud.
For all of the movers, check Dwain’s tweet.
Underdog RB ADP (Early May vs. Early June)
While QBs and TEs are dropping, there’s a handful of RBs who are screaming up the draft board:
Why it’s happening: RB ADP is largely driven by projectable volume, which is hard to accurately predict early in the offseason. This is evidenced by the ADPs for backfields like the Dolphins, Bears, and Saints (3 backs all going in the same range in the double-digit rounds).
But you’ll notice with the above names that drafters are getting more confident about their volume and/or position on the depth chart. Jaylen Warren, Tank Bigsby, and Jerome Ford are all clear-cut RB2s on their team, which make them valuable in Zero RB and Anchor RB builds where we want to make sure we are avoiding dead roster spots (i.e. taking a handcuff RB that isn’t actually the handcuff.)
How to play it: I still like all of the RB names above. But remain price-conscious in your draft rooms. We are going to get clarity on many other backfields as the summer progresses, so there will be plenty of opportunities to feather in handcuffs who aren’t as pricey as these guys.
The Dallas Cowboys are a prime example. We know there is value for whoever earns the RB2 role behind Tony Pollard, but because we aren’t certain whether it’s Malik Davis, Ronald Jones, or Deuce Vaughn, none of them are being selected in the majority of drafts. If and when we do get that clarity, the RB2 will immediately vault into a similar range as Warren.
For the rest of the RB movers, as well as the WRs, check out Dwain’s tweets.
Looking to take advantage of the ADP movers? Sign up for Underdog Fantasy below to get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 and start drafting today!
