Drafting fantasy football teams throughout the summer inherently comes with uncertainty: about talent and role for young players, about depth charts and, of course, about who will stay healthy and who won't.

Today I'll be diving into some uncertain WR depth charts that don't have a clear No. 1 target. I'll be breaking down how the market is valuing each player and who I'm targeting and fading within each group.

Buffalo Bills

Since the 2020 season, Josh Allen has averaged 4,385 passing yards and just over 34 passing TDs per year in the regular season. During that time, the Buffalo offense has not finished outside of the top 10 in points per game or passing yards per game in any season. With Allen at the helm, they have consistently been one of the best offenses in the NFL, and we have no reason to think that will change despite plenty of turnover in his supporting cast.

The Bills' most notable offseason moves at the WR position included trading away Stefon Diggs, signing Curtis Samuel and drafting Keon Coleman. The new additions will join TE Dalton Kincaid and second-year WR Khalil Shakir as the core group of receiving weapons for Josh Allen. The team also added veteran role players Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Chase Claypool to compete for roster spots. 

The general consensus is that Kincaid will be the top target, but there should still be plenty of fantasy value for the WRs. The key question is whether or not anyone else can emerge as a reliable target or if the rest of the passing volume gets spread around evenly. Last season, Diggs commanded a 30% target share, but no other player on the team surpassed 18%. 

With the lack of proven pass catchers, a spread-out passing attack seems very plausible, but that doesn't mean we can ignore the Buffalo WRs in our best ball drafts. The ceiling is too high to fade all of them, so how should we approach this WR room?

I think the market largely has this one right in terms of the order of the top three receivers, and I'm willing to draft a decent amount of both Coleman and Samuel at their current ADPs. Even though Coleman is far from a perfect prospect, he did grade out as the WR6 in the rookie super model. He has the highest upside of this group by a good amount and could be a TD monster if he develops solid chemistry with Allen. 

Shakir is the one that I believe is overpriced. He had a solid rookie season but failed to draw consistent targets with just a 9% target share and 0.135 targets per route run, both of which are pretty poor. He should be good for a few splash plays here and there, but there are too many other receivers I like that go after him to draft Shakir often. 

If there is a breakout WR from this Bills team, that players has a good chance to be a true league winner thanks to a relatively low cost in drafts and team situation. I do think the most likely outcome is a WR rotation that prevents anyone from realizing that potential, but when I make a bet on a breakout on this offense, I want it to be Coleman or Samuel. 

Kansas City Chiefs

Similar to the Bills, the Chiefs are once again expected to be one of the best offenses in the NFL. They also have a number of new faces in their WR room after signing Marquise Brown and drafting Xavier Worthy in the first round. To further complicate matters, second-year WR Rashee Rice is facing a suspension that will have a significant impact on how he and the rest of the Chiefs' WRs will be valued in fantasy drafts. If the suspension is significant, I expect Kelce, Worthy and Brown to rise up draft boards. If it ends up being a shorter suspension, Worthy and Brown should fall and Rice's ADP could skyrocket. 

My two main targets among this group are currently Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice, in that order. Worthy has insane upside in the Chiefs offense regardless of who else is on the field. Rice is risky, but he's proven he can be valuable in fantasy football and these are the types of risks that I generally want to lean into. His ADP could jump multiple rounds overnight so I'm not going to let this opportunity to take him at a discount pass by. 

Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy (1) stays on his feet to run the ball in for a touchdown as Texas Tech defensive back C.J. Baskerville (9) goes for the tackle in the third quarter of the Longhorns' game against the Texas Tech Red Raiders, Friday, Nov. 24, 2023 at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin.

I haven't found myself drafting Marquise Brown very often, but I'm making a conscious effort to mix him in a little bit, just in case his struggles the past few years were more about the situation than his talent. That being said, I think the fantasy community is overvaluing Brown's talent a bit. This is a player who has topped 800 receiving yards once in five NFL seasons, has a career YPRR of just 1.55 and doesn't profile as someone who is going to be a target in the red zone. 

There's a chance this will be the wrong take, but give me the younger players for their higher ceiling and potential to be coming on strong late in the season. 

New England Patriots

Unlike the Bills and Chiefs, the Patriots are not expected to be one of the higher-scoring teams in 2024, but that is reflected in the prices of their pass catchers. The presumed top three WRs all go in the 13th round or later, and New England doesn't have an elite TE to command targets. With the lowest win total in betting markets, the Pats could be trailing in a lot of their games, which should yield plenty of pass attempts to create fantasy value for their WRs. 

It's also important to note that I do think that both Jacoby Brissett and Drake Maye can offer an upgrade over last year's QB play, so I'm not worried about who starts how many games under center when thinking about the WR production. 

WR Super Model

I find it interesting that Ja'Lynn Polk goes so much later than the likes of Keon Coleman and Ladd McConkey despite grading out as a very similar prospect. Yes, he probably landed in the worst situation of the three, but I'm not sure if it justifies how much later he goes in drafts. If either Polk or Javon Baker proves to be a legit NFL talent, they could see huge volume in this offense. 

The two rookies are my primary targets, so I'm drafting them first, but I have no problem selecting DeMario Douglas, especially when setting up correlation for the playoff weeks of best ball tournaments.

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers might be the most interesting team on this list. The market has a clear preference for how to draft these WRs that doesn't seem justified. Yes, a highly drafted rookie is likely to have the best ceiling of the bunch, but there are enough flaws in Ladd McConkey's prospect profile to make it far from a sure thing that he emerges as the top WR for Justin Herbert. 

While L.A. is expected to be a run-heavy offense, they also have very little at the TE position, unlike some of the other teams on this list. I expect the passing game to flow through the WR position, and we know Herbert can sling the rock so this has the potential to be an efficient air attack. McConkey does deserve to be the highest drafted of the WRs but Palmer, Johnston and Chark are all cheap enough to warrant consideration in drafts. I've never been particularly high on Joshua Palmer and he hasn't done much in his NFL career to date with just 1.36 YPRR and 0.16 targets per route run. However, he has the most experience playing with Herbert and he did show signs of improvement during the 2023 season.

Quentin Johnston is not a fun selection. It is hard to overstate how bad his rookie year was, but in the 13th round or later he is worth taking on occasion. I view Chark as a similar talent level to Palmer, but at a much cheaper price in drafts. He's nothing special as a talent but does have a 1,000-yard, eight-TD season to his name and is only entering his age-28 season. 

At this point in the offseason, I want to draft all of these guys, but this position group is one that I will be paying close attention to in training camp. If we get a steady drumbeat that any one player is flashing constantly or showing great chemistry with Herbert, I want to target him aggressively in drafts.