Best Ball Trends for 2024: What's Changed Since 2023?

One of my favorite things about drafting best ball teams over the course of the offseason is that the market is dynamic. The ADP landscape is constantly shifting, and it's up to us to adjust accordingly. Drafting the best players is important, but proper roster construction is even more critical.

If you don't have enough firepower at a particular position, it's nearly impossible to win large field tournaments like the ones on Underdog Fantasy. We generally have to choose between quality or quantity at each position, and this article will explore how we can use ADP data to properly balance that tradeoff within each best ball draft.

The best drafters are able to combine player evaluations with a strong understanding of how to navigate the draft board in order to build the best possible roster. This means understanding where the different pockets of value are and recognizing when a particular draft lets you build a team that isn't possible most of the time.

All of the data shown in this article is based on Underdog drafts, which are 0.5 points per reception (PPR). The 2023 data is based on ADP from the day before the 2023 NFL season began while the 2024 ADP data is as of May 5th.

Let's take a look at how the current best ball landscape has changed from last season and how we can navigate these changes to build a team capable of winning $1.5 million.

Best Ball Trends in 2024

Elite QBs are cheaper in 2024

The top-tier QBs were pushed way up draft boards in 2023, but the market has swung back the other way in 2024. The top-eight QBs by ADP are all going meaningfully later than last season, which makes them much more attractive picks due to the lower opportunity cost. 

I'm not totally convinced that this trend will hold up all summer, as more casual drafters entering the best ball streets over the next couple of months may push up the cost of the elite QBs. I've been trying to exploit this in early drafts by almost exclusively building teams with two strong QBs. By spending just two picks on the QB position, I'm then able to allocate an extra roster spot to RB, WR, or TE depending on where my roster feels thin.

My two most frequently-drafted QBs right now are Anthony Richardson (QB6) and Kyler Murray (QB8). After those top eight, the ADPs are actually a bit more expensive than they were in 2023. I think the top eight QBs by ADP accurately reflect the players with the most upside, so I plan to continue hammering the top QBs in best ball drafts until they rise up draft boards.

The RB ADP cliff is real

Comparing 2023 RB ADP against 2024 RB ADP revealed an interesting difference. The top-11 RBs are going in nearly identical spots to where they were last season, but RBs 12 through 24 are being drafted about a full round later than they were in 2023. This suggests that drafters see a very clear tier break after the RB11 (Travis Etienne) and are willing to wait before selecting RBs from the next tier. 

I actually think this is incredibly sharp from the drafting public, and the current tier cutoff is in about the right spot. The top-11 RBs being drafted prior to the ADP cliff are all players who have talent and a confidently projected workload. 

The RBs after this ADP cliff generally all have question marks in at least one of those two categories. You could make a case that the next two RBs off the board (James Cook and Isiah Pacheco) could be closer to the group ahead of them, but the fact that they aren't makes them strong picks right now.

Excluding the rookies (who I think are just generally a bit underpriced), my most drafted RBs as of now are Jaylen Warren (RB28), James Cook (RB12), Kenneth Walker (RB16), and David Montgomery (RB19), all of whom currently have ADPs between pick No. 48 and 94 overall. I'm often drafting my first two RBs in this range after having prioritized WR early with occasional detours for an elite QB and/or TE.

WR ADPs continue to rise

The rising ADP of WRs in best ball has been a multi-year trend that doesn't seem to be slowing down. Last year, the top-24 WRs by ADP were all off the board by pick No. 48 overall. In 2024, the top-24 WRs are now generally being drafted by pick No. 36 overall, which is about a full round earlier.

Some might argue that this trend has gone too far. I don't necessarily think so, but it also doesn't really matter. We have to adjust accordingly based on ADP, so if drafters are paying up for elite WRs, I certainly don't want to get left behind at the position. 

As this graph shows, the ADP difference grows after WR14 near the end of the second round. WRs 15 to 30 are going well ahead of where they were last year, so we should adjust to this new reality.

In past seasons, I would've advocated for taking WRs early and often through the first six or seven rounds, but I've backed off that a bit so far this offseason, as I like the current ADP values of the elite QBs and TEs. Additionally, the RBs in Rounds 5 to 8 are much stronger picks than they have been in the past as a result of the early WR ADP.

I'm still trying to come out of the first three rounds with at least two or three WRs, but I'm more likely to take an elite QB and/or TE in the following Rounds 4 to 5 this offseason because the caliber of WRs in that range isn't nearly as strong as it was over the past few seasons.

ADPs for the top-12 TEs are much flatter

By the end of the 2023 drafting season, the top two TEs by ADP were typically going off the board before pick No. 30 overall. At the time of this writing, the top TE by ADP in 2024 Underdog drafts is Sam LaPorta (30.5 overall), nearly two full rounds later than the TE1 from last season. At the same time, the TE12 this season is being drafted much earlier than the TE12 in 2023.

Last year, there was an ADP difference of 124.7 spots between the TE1 and TE12. This year, that gap is just 82.7 spots, which results in a much more condensed range to draft a top-12 TE. Historically, TE has been a position where just a couple players separate from the pack and provide a huge positional advantage. That wasn't really the case last year, as there were seven TEs who averaged between 10.0 to 11.5 points per game (PPG) in 0.5 PPR formats such as Underdog. 

The 2024 TE ADPs reflect those results from last year, but it might be taking things a bit too far. I think it's just as likely that we'll see a couple of TEs separate from the pack again this season, so I'd rather prioritize the players who I think have that elite potential. 

I've been drafting a lot of LaPorta (TE1), Trey McBride (TE3), and Mark Andrews (TE5). I've also mixed in plenty of Travis Kelce (TE2) and Dalton Kincaid (TE4) while largely ignoring the likes of Evan Engram (TE8), Jake Ferguson (TE9), and David Njoku (TE12) because I think their ADPs are overvalued right now.

Similarities in Best Ball Trends from 2023 to 2024

The positional breakdown of the top 100 picks

When comparing the ADP landscape from 2023 to 2024, I was expecting a bigger difference in the positional breakdown of the top 100 overall picks. We've already established that WRs are even more expensive this year, but drafters are actually selecting the exact same number of WRs within the top 100 overall picks. 

A few RBs have fallen out of the top 100 in favor of a couple more TEs and QBs, but overall, the differences are pretty minor. What this tells me is that pockets of value within the top-100 overall picks are what has changed, and the positional charts we looked at earlier confirm this. 

By the end of Round 8, 96 players will be off the board, and you should have a good feel for how your roster is shaping up by that point. Doing a breakdown of the top-96 picks felt weird so I made it an even 100, but the point still stands. If drafters are selecting a similar number of players from each position but valuing those positions differently within the top 100 picks, we can't apply the exact same strategies that worked last year.

Takeaways for 2024 best ball drafts

Underdog's Hayden Winks has done great work on defining what actually matters in best ball. His research on the results from 2023 shows that the truly elite WRs were worth the cost, but the positional value at WR declined more quickly than it did at any other position.

While the results will surely be a little bit different in 2024, I do expect a similar overall outcome. The continued rising cost of WRs makes it difficult (and unnecessary) to go RB-heavy in the early rounds, but it also makes it tougher to just blindly draft WRs through the middle rounds.

In my opinion, the current 2024 ADP landscape makes structural drafting even more important than it has been in the past. Allocating the right amount of draft capital to each position isn't as fun to talk about as player takes, but I would argue that it's become the more important factor in building winning rosters.

One of my favorite drafting tips is to think through the draft from back to front. This concept has been popularized by Shawn Siegele and Fantasy Life's own Pete Overzet, and it's an incredibly valuable concept. 

Personally, I feel much better about late-round picks at the RB and WR positions than I do QBs and TEs. Combine this with the fact that the elite QBs are going much later this year, and as a result, I've been drafting primarily 2QB builds rather than 3QB. The flatter ADP of the top-12 TEs has also caused me to take larger player stands at the position because I believe the ceiling of the truly elite players isn't being fully reflected in their current ADPs.

Moreover, I'm completely out on any type of robust RB build in 2024 given current ADPs, and I don't even like going hyper-fragile at RB much anymore. Unless the ADP landscape changes a lot over the course of the summer, most of my teams this year will likely end up being either zero RB or anchor RB.

I've been drafting a ton of 2-6-8-2 teams so far where I grab a couple of WRs early, use my middle-round selections to make sure I get two QBs and two TEs that I like, and then build out my RB and WR depth in the later rounds where I think the ADP is less efficient. While I don't believe this is the only way to win in 2024 best ball drafts, I do think that the current ADP landscape makes these types of builds more efficient than other strategies.