We’re now more than a week into best ball season and the sickos have been flooding Underdog drafts left and right.
This time of year is a fun one to draft, as we have yet to see the NFL schedule so bye week and playoff-schedule strategy isn’t something we take into consideration. Instead, the benefit of drafting this early in the offseason is being able to exploit best ball value picks that won’t be available throughout the summer.
I’ve drafted 18 best ball teams on Underdog Fantasy so far in the early part of the draft season. The following five players are veterans whose ADPs have stuck out as ones that I’ve proactively tried to take advantage of so far.
Travis Kelce, TE - Chiefs
- Underdog ADP: 38.4 (TE2)
The current TE2 and a player who’s been universally drafted as the overall TE1 for the better part of the last decade is a current value at his ADP? He sure is.
The Chiefs offense is going to be a polarizing one after an inconsistent and disappointing season last year (from a fantasy production and reliability standpoint), but everything that we’ve seen since the regular season concluded points to a bounceback for Travis Kelce.
Despite falling short of 1,000 yards for the first time since 2015, Kelce looked like his vintage self during the Chiefs’ Super Bowl run:
For those counting at home, Kelce posted a 29% target share, 25% targets per route run and an average of 21.5 PPR points per game.
Age cliff? Psh.
The addition of Xavier Worthy should help open up the field for Patrick Mahomes, who stumbled through 2023 with an uncharacteristic aDOT of 6.6 yards (6.9 in playoffs). This should prevent defenses from selling out to protect the middle of the field and, subsequently, open Kelce up to more paths to the football.
Add that to the expectation that Rashee Rice will miss some time and vacate targets and the path to another overall TE1 season starts to become clearer for Kelce.
Going as the TE2 off the board isn’t the most outrageous thing in the world right now, but going 10 picks after the TE1 (Sam LaPorta, 28.7) is a gap that feels incorrect. With how easy it is to stack Mahomes and Kelce with their current ADPs, Kelce has become one of my preferred mid-round targets and is currently my most-rostered tight end (33%) in early drafts.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB - Patriots
- Underdog ADP: 77.9 (RB20)
There may not be an ADP that has confused me as much as Rhamondre Stevenson’s through the early window of draft season. At least, relative to his 2023 ADP and reasons why it was significantly higher.
After drafters pumped his ADP close to the RB1 borderline last offseason with the relief of Damien Harris’ departure, Stevenson was joined in the backfield by Ezekiel Elliott and finished as the RB27 overall. Elliott was a constant thorn in the side of Stevenson, playing at least 35% of the snaps in all but one week through the first 10 weeks of the season. In that stretch, Stevenson logged at least 70% of the snaps only twice (Weeks 1-2).
Nov 5, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson (38) runs the ball during the second half against the Washington Commanders at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports
Despite the slightly less involved role than anticipated, Stevenson showed struggles with efficiency and eventually got shut down for the season during the final four weeks.
Why is this context important? Well, because there isn’t much about the 2024 offseason that’s been all that different from the 2023 one. In fact, it’s been better for Stevenson’s stock than 2023’s was.
Mac Jones is out as the signal caller with rookie Drake Maye stepping in his place and Elliott has relocated to Dallas, leaving Stevenson with little backfield competition for goal-line and early-down work (Antonio Gibson was brought on but remains a passing-down asset).
Stevenson is not yet 27 years old with plenty of gas left in the tank, has less competition for early-down and goal-line work, and should be a constant source of relief for a new rookie QB.
It may not be the sexiest pick in the world, but this feels like a spot where you’re drafting Stevenson closer to his floor than his ceiling, and that’s something zero-RB drafters should gravitate towards in the later-middle rounds.
Diontae Johnson, WR - Panthers
- Underdog ADP: 82.2 (WR45)
2023 wasn’t a pretty year for the Steelers passing attack, but Diontae Johnson managed to grind his way to production:
- Target%: 24% (team-lead)
- TPRR: 24%
- aDOT: 12.71 (career-high)
- Endzone target%: 38% (team-lead)
An offseason trade landed Johnson in Carolina, whose offensive prospects are equally as hard, if not harder to get excited about than Pittsburgh’s. Even so, there are reasons for optimism.
As bad as Bryce Young was in his rookie season, he helped carry Adam Thielen to a WR22 finish in PPR formats as his No. 1 option, posting a 26% target share and 21% TPRR. Young also ranked 12th in air yards among starting QBs and despite having one of the worst passing offenses in the league, they ranked 13th in passing volume. With expectations of another uphill battle this season, the passing volume should remain intact.
If the 34-year-old Thielen was able to finish as a WR2 in one of the worst offensive environments in football last season, I feel confident in saying that the 27-year-old Johnson can outperform his current WR4 pricetag. Plus, if we see any type of sophomore leap from Young, we could see Johnson rocket into the top 24 at the position, making his WR45 tag one of the best positional values on the board.
Austin Ekeler, RB - Commanders
- Underdog ADP: 109.4 (RB33)
You’d be hard-pressed to find a player who’s seen a more dramatic drop in ADP year-over-year than Austin Ekeler, who went from being a consensus first-round pick in 2023 to the current RB33 in early 2024 drafts. He finished as the RB26 in PPR scoring after an overall decrease in efficiency and various injuries throughout the season.
While Ekeler (and the Chargers’ offense) looked disastrous at times, his current ADP of RB33 is one of my favorites on the board.
Joining a new-look Commanders offense, Ekeler could find himself in a role more reminiscent of the role he played earlier in his career alongside Melvin Gordon, where he specialized in a high-value-touch role on third downs and at the goal line as opposed to getting the majority of the early-down work. While an overall count in touches may decrease, the high-value touches should remain.
Despite his struggles last season, Ekeler still showed signs of his elite pass-catching/high-leverage upside that we’ve grown so fond of:
- Target share: 12% (10th among qualified RBs with at least 499 snaps)
- TPRR: 20% (10th)
- Routes: 48% (10th)
- 2Min snaps: 76% (6th)
I find it hard to believe we’ll find many (if any) other running backs in the RB30+ range with this type of passing-game upside.
The reasons for optimism don't end there. Ekeler is also already familiar with RB coach Anthony Lynn from his time with the Chargers.
In addition, a dual-threat QB like Jayden Daniels is more likely to siphon off early-down touches from Brian Robinson than the high-value touches from Ekeler.
When you add it all up, Ekeler feels like he’s being drafted much closer to his floor than his ceiling.
Through my first 18 drafts on Underdog, Ekeler checks in as my highest-rostered player at 43%. While I surely expect the exposure to level out as the draft volume increases, he’ll certainly remain atop my list of RB targets barring any crazy development.
Rashid Shaheed, WR - Saints
- Underdog ADP: 120.7 (WR56)
The Saints offense isn’t one that will instill confidence (is any Derek Carr-led offense?), but Rashid Shaheed is primed to reprise a valuable role in the passing attack in 2024.
After topping 1,000 yards last season as the primary deep threat for New Orleans (14.56-yard aDOT), Shaheed steps into the starting WR2 role after the Saints cut Michael Thomas (18% target share when active last season) and didn’t prioritize a WR in the 2024 draft.
As Ian Hartitz pointed out this offseason, no other wide receiver has averaged more than 11 yards per target over the last two years (min. 100 targets), giving him a unique ceiling at this stage in drafts that most receivers in his general vicinity don’t possess.
While the boom-or-bust nature of his game still lends itself more to best ball than redraft formats where you don’t have to make the active decision to start or sit him, Shaheed has shown a week-winning ceiling before and will only have more chances to showcase that upside in 2024.
This is yet another ADP that simply does not make sense, as Shaheed’s WR46 finish last season looks like something he’ll clearly improve upon given the role he’s stepping into and the upside he possesses.
