Hot Best Ball Summer rolls on and some of you degenerates are several hundred drafts deep (nice work, now go touch some grass). We’ve started to see sizable shifts in ADP as players see the practice field for the first time and hype videos start filtering out of camp. Sam Wallace looks at the biggest ADP risers and fallers on Underdog since June 1st and identifies actionable takeaways to keep you ahead of the field.
Biggest ADP risers in June
Parris Campbell (ADP change -31.8)
If players start climbing up draft boards, it’s going to come at the expense of others. The biggest riser over the last month coincides perfectly with our biggest faller. More on that later.
While his rookie teammate plummets in value, Parris Campbell has seen his value increase two and half rounds.
Campbell only played 15 games across his first three seasons, but he put the injury bug behind him and played all 17 games last year. Fantasy managers took notice and are finally giving the talented wideout a chance.
His line of 63 / 623 / 3 on 91 targets doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence, but his WR48 finish last year is more than 30 spots higher than where he’s being drafted now. There’s still value to be had if you’re late to the best ball party.
No wide receiver ran more routes out of the slot than Campbell last year (521), per PFF. The Athletic’s Dan Duggan said it looks like Campbell “will be a featured piece of the offense.” The starting slot role appears to be his for the taking.
The Giants have a crowded, if underwhelming, wide receiver group including rookie Jalin Hyatt, Darius Slayton, Wan'Dale Robinson, Sterling Shepard, and Isaiah Hodgins. Even if Campbell continues to trend up draft boards (WR78), I’ll gladly keep drafting him as a cheap piece of a decent offense.
Rondale Moore (ADP change -27.4)
This one surprises me. Rondale Moore was all the rage coming out of Purdue a few years back, but he just hasn’t found sustained success in the NFL. He missed the second half of last season with injuries to his core, groin, and pinky finger (all of which required surgery) and finished sixth on the team in targets. He’s also scored just twice in 22 career games.
On the plus side, Moore is still only 23 years old, and the departure of DeAndre Hopkins certainly opens up a ton of vacated targets. There’s also no guarantee that Zach Ertz is ready by Week 1, and Greg Dortch doesn’t inspire confidence. It’s safe to assume Moore slots in as the WR2, for now.
2023 is projected to be a tough season for the Cardinals. Courtesy of BetMGM, they have the longest odds of winning their own division (+2500) while simultaneously sporting the lowest projected win total (5.5).
Tank for Caleb Williams? Topic for another time.
Moore will need to stay healthy, step up, and earn targets from either a recovering Kyler Murray (ACL) or a backup QB. Thankfully, his price sits at WR60 so there’s still room to acquire an explosive piece of this offense at a discount.
Tyquan Thornton (ADP change -21.9)
A second-year wideout for the Patriots, Tyquan Thornton boasts incredible 4.28 40-yard speed. Unfortunately, his rookie year production left much to be desired.
He finished seventh on the team in targets and New England brought in JuJu Smith-Schuster to replace Jakobi Meyers.
There’s a viable path for Thornton to jump up into the No. 2 slot in the WR pecking order, but Kendrick Bourne and DeVante Parker won’t just disappear. It’ll still be a three-way committee behind Smith-Schuster.
Over the last two years, the Patriots have been in the top third of the league in rushing frequency and bottom third in pace of play. A slow offensive pace with an emphasis on the running game doesn’t bode well for someone like Thornton who doesn’t demand targets.
The arrival of new offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien should help QB Mac Jones get back to form, but there’s little reason to be optimistic about this receiving group. Thornton’s WR71 price is fine if you’re looking to complete some cheap Patriot stacks (or bring backs), but don’t go out of your way.
Biggest ADP fallers in June
Jalin Hyatt (ADP change +36.0)
Drafted in the third round by the New York Giants, Hyatt will have to navigate a crowded wide receiver room. It’s already been a tough offseason for the rookie. According to The Athletic, he’s been working mostly with the third team, and “it looks like it’ll be an uphill climb to unseat established veterans for a more substantial role early in the season.”
Dwain McFarland wrote up an excellent dynasty rookie profile on Hyatt. Here are the highlights:
Pros
- As a junior, 27% of Hyatt’s targets came 20-plus yards downfield
- Hyatt’s 1,085 yards and 13 TDs on plays with over a step of separation ranked No. 1 in the Power Five in 2022
- Hyatt was the No. 1 prospect for Lance Zierlein and Next Gen Stats at NFL.com
Cons
- Hyatt never developed into a target magnet during his career
- His 21% career targets per route run (TPRR) is also below average
- Tennessee also went out of its way to provide their star WR with clean releases
Mar 4, 2023; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Tennessee wide receiver Jalin Hyatt (WO23) participates in drills at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
The cons aren’t meant to suggest that Hyatt can’t succeed at the next level, but the crowded depth chart and dependence on scheme could limit his upside.
Just as the best ball community has pushed Campbell up the board, they’ve also pushed Hyatt down three full rounds over the last month. That’s not something that gives you a strong, positive feeling.
At the same time, his WR79 price makes him extremely affordable. He’s worth a look if you want cheap exposure to this offense.
Josh Downs (ADP change +28.8)
The second-biggest ADP faller over the last month is Josh Downs.
The Colts selected him in the third round and paired him with their franchise-hopeful QB Anthony Richardson. There’s ample reason to be worried about any Colts pass-catcher in 2023 as Richardson still has much to prove in that department.
Jonathan Fuller wrote up Downs’s dynasty rookie profile and highlighted several key points:
Pros
- Downs finished third in the country with 754 total yards after the catch in 2021
- Creates excellent separation, varies speed on his routes, and has incredibly clean footwork
- 22 career touchdowns are evidence of the fact that Downs isn’t your typical small slot receiver
Cons
- Projects to be a very run-heavy offense in 2023
- Measurables came in at 5’9” and 171 lbs., which were underwhelming
- Could be limited to a slot-only role on this offense
The Colts have a true No. 1 option in Michael Pittman and then have Alec Pierce and Isaiah McKenzie to battle with Downs for Nos. 2 & 3. Downs could very well beat them out for the No. 2 job, but much still hinges on Richardson.
RB Jonathan Taylor was limited by injuries last season, but from 2020-2021 the Colts were the 7th most run-heavy team in the league. I would anticipate new head coach Shane Steichen to lean on the run game and utilize Richardson’s legs as key components of the offense.
Downs is down to WR87 on Underdog and is going outside of the top 200 overall, so there’s minimal risk if you’re looking to get exposure.
Trey Lance (ADP change +23.7)
The final ADP faller from this month is Trey Lance.
He’s fallen almost two full rounds and sits at QB30. We’re all now well aware of the incredible “Mr. Irrelevant” story of last year, but Brock Purdy continues to work his way back from offseason elbow surgery.
Sep 11, 2022; Chicago, Illinois, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Trey Lance (5) looks to pass in the second quarter against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Bartel-USA TODAY Sports
While Lance is using this opportunity to get valuable first-team reps in and build chemistry with teammates, Adam Schefter dropped this massive take on the Pat McAfee Show last week:
“There was no trade market for Trey Lance and the 49ers didn't have any trade talks with teams…Brock Purdy if he's healthy is the number one and my guess going into camp is that Sam Darnold has the edge to be number two."
It’s not great when a No. 3 overall pick that the team massively traded up for can’t beat out Darnold (no offense, Sam).
The 49ers have made it clear that Purdy has done enough to keep the starting job even as he rehabs this offseason, and he appears to be on track for Week 1. Best ball drafters adjusted accordingly and pushed Lance down the boards.
I don’t mind taking swings on Lance at that price. Sure, he’s currently slated to be the No. 2 or 3 option on his own team, but the QB carousel that 49ers fans have endured in recent years means Lance is an opportunity away from being a league-winner. Draft at your own risk.
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