Draft Dilemmas: 3 Fantasy Football Situations To Get Right
I need a crystal ball or access to a spy network.
I realize it sounds dramatic, but think about what you could accomplish. Or how many situations you could avoid or defuse.
Or, in my case, which player to draft so I have a better shot at winning BBMIV.
Projections and ADP come from what we know. Historical trends, free-agent adds, and draft results all play a part. But some situations have too much uncertainty. There's no past example for us to point to as a guide. And we see the results play out in the market.
I've come across a few dilemmas where my squad's playoff potential hinges on making the right choice. But training camp nuggets and vibes are all we have. I'll lay out a few worth monitoring, what we know, and how I'm playing it as we head into draft season.
Quick notes on process
Normally, this is where I’d go through some convoluted (read: super cool) process and post a scatter plot highlighting some trend (again, really cool stuff) to get everyone on the same page. Luckily, I didn’t need to for this exercise. All I needed to do was scroll through social media.
Someone states their claim (in this case, a great someone), backs it up with relevant analysis, and receives praise from whatever faction supports the idea. Honestly, someone should do a social experiment by tweeting two opposing views from the same account. Regardless, I’ve had to re-examine my approach to drafts after seeing a few.
But there’s a measurable effect of these debates in best ball drafts. Since Jakob brought them up, let’s use the Miami backfield as an example:
- Devon Achane (ADP: 118.6)
- Raheem Mostert (171.0)
- Jeff Wilson (179.5)
The rookie has the hype, but drafters can’t decide between the two vets. Even our rankings are too close to call.
It didn’t take me long to find similar ADP clusters. And the Fantasy Life crew will update the projections if any news gives us more insight into how targets and touches will shake out. But, for now, let’s see what makes the most sense for a few of these dilemmas.
Who’s the Eagles’ RB1?
Imagine if you knew which rusher Nick Sirianni wanted to carry the load for Philadelphia this season.
During the regular season, Philadelphia had the most touchdowns on the ground (32). Even if you removed Jalen Hurts’s 13 TDs with his legs, the remaining 18 by the RBs would tie for seventh in the league.
But scoring fluctuates year over year. Offensive philosophy has more stability.
While Hurts was still healthy last year, the Eagles ran the fifth-most plays inside their opponents' red zone (155). Of those 155 attempts, 104 were runs (most in the league). The next closest team was Atlanta at 86.
In short, the Eagles’ rushing game was conducive to fantasy points. Their rushing EPA (0.072) was greater than Kirk Cousins’s passing EPA (0.069). But after a busy offseason, their running game has fantasy gamers taking sides.
What do we know?
Philadelphia signed Rashaad Penny at the start of free agency while Miles Sanders was still on the roster. Meanwhile, the trade for D’Andre Swift came together when Detroit drafted Jahmyr Gibbs. Conjecture would suggest Penny was a larger priority, but the open opportunity within the offense offers more than what their contracts say.
Sanders was primarily the early-down and short-yardage grinder. While Sanders was on the field for the two-minute drill, the Eagles still looked to Kenneth Gainwell in obvious passing situations. The second-year back was the more efficient receiver and had a higher pass-blocking grade per PFF. But Gainwell couldn’t match Sanders’s rushing ability.
After telling people not to draft him, Sanders posted a top-3 mark in EPA per attempt on early downs and was 13th in rush yards over expected (RYOE). He generated the fifth-most first downs of any RB and kept Philadelphia’s offense on schedule. They’ll need a repeat performance from one of the two RBs to stay on top of the NFC.
How I’m playing it
I’ve been targeting Penny in either pure Zero RB builds or if I’ve already acquired 2-3 solid starters. Before his Week 5 injury, his usage closely aligned with Sanders.
Swift had access to a similar offensive line as Sanders from a blocking standpoint but had average marks in RYOE and only five more explosive runs than Zack Moss. Meanwhile, in the first month of the season, Penny was first in yards after contact per attempt and top 10 in explosive runs.
And I’ll take some confirmation bias to go with my thoughts.
Swift’s receiving ability overlaps with Gainwell, and Sanders doesn’t provide the same punch to move the chains in short-yardage situations. With Hurts targeting the RB position at the lowest rate last season, Swift would have to overcome multiple obstacles to pay off at his current ADP.
Which Miami RB should we draft?
Tua Tagovailoa ranked third in EPA per dropback and first in yards per attempt. He matched Patrick Mahomes’s touchdown rate (6.3%), and Miami totaled the seventh-most touchdowns with Tua on the field.
There’s no doubt this offense can deliver fantasy value each week. The Dolphins were sixth in yards per drive. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle will do most of the damage. But every drafter's priority throughout the offseason is figuring out who has the best shot at benefitting from the Blur Brothers’ gravity.
What do we know?
Let’s look at the Dolphins' fantasy-relevant skill players at the end of the ’22 season and their outlook for this year.
- RBs
- Raheem Mostert – signed a 2-year, $5.6M deal with Miami at the start of free agency
- Jeff Wilson – resigned the same day (2 years, $6M)
- WRs
- Trent Sherfield – currently listed ahead of Khalil Shakir as the Bills’ starting slot WR
- Cedrick Wilson Jr. – earned 18 targets in 15 games
- TEs
- Mike Gesicki – jettisoned to the Patriots after a disastrous Griddy attempt
RB and TE were the only positions without unquestioned starters heading into the draft. Only five totes separated Wilson's and Mostert’s attempts by season’s end.
Nov 27, 2022; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins running back Jeff Wilson Jr. (23) runs the ball around Houston Texans safety Jonathan Owens (36) during the second half at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Meanwhile, no pass-catcher outside Hill and Waddle earned more than 50 targets. For a team with the seventh-highest PROE last year, we expected a new element to their passing game. And we got it in the draft.
Devon Achane notched a top-20 rank in YPRR his sophomore season and earned a 12.3% target share during his last year at Texas A&M. His 4.32-sec speed fit with Miami’s WR duo, and Achane’s Day 2 draft capital boosted him to middle rounds. At first glance, the rookie sits at the intersection of situation and opportunity in a dynamic passing game.
How I’m playing it
Jeff Wilson offers the most value out of Miami’s backfield at cost. But Achane’s explosive nature gives him some appeal in the right roster build.
I already pointed out how pass-friendly Miami’s offense was in 2023. And they didn’t switch it up once they got into the red zone.
Drafters are (rightfully) assuming Achane will meet his ADP through red-zone targets. Gesicki and Sherfield totaled 18 looks in this area, with Chase Edmonds picking up another four. But Achane isn’t the only receiving RB on the team.
Miami used a fifth-round pick to acquire Wilson from San Francisco and resigned him for (slightly) more money than Mostert. Regardless, the 27-year-old vet had a larger impact on the passing game than Mostert.
There’s no question Achane will grow into a third option for Tua currently missing from the offense. However, his 188-lb. frame will limit his carries on early downs. Wilson (17.6%) nearly matched Mostert (19.4%) in forced missed tackle rate, with the team's second-highest red zone EPA per target.
I can’t ignore Achane’s skillset and speed in Zero RB constructions. However, I’ve targeted Wilson to satisfy my RB needs in standard builds. Correlating Wilson with Isaiah Likely to get access to an underrated Week 17 matchup has the potential to be a winning combination.
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Who to target in the Ravens’ passing game?
The Ravens’ shift to Todd Monken has the league on notice. We should expect more passing, and Lamar Jackson indicated he’d run less this season. Plus, Baltimore’s additions of Odell Beckham and Zay Flowers emphasize their commitment to change. But how much more we’ll get from Lamar the thrower is still in question.
The market appears undecided on the WRs, and there’s a chasm between the two TEs. However, the increased volume should boost the fantasy prospects of one of the pass-catchers. And, as of right now, health looks like the factor driving our interest.
What do we know?
While Lamar didn’t sign his contract until later in the month, Baltimore added Odell Beckham Jr. in early April. Despite cresting 30 years of age, we last saw Beckham with a 14.0 aDOT running backside digs in LA. He hasn’t seen more than 20.0% of his snaps come from the slot since his first year in Cleveland. Ideally, he’d play the flanker position to take advantage of any juice he has left.
Rashod Bateman looked like the WR1 the Ravens drafted, but (again) injuries derailed his season. At just 28 targets on the season, Bateman was 12th in YPRR (tied with CeeDee Lamb) with only 18 routes from the slot. But his cortisone shot in June raised red flags.
And, unfortunately, we’ve yet to see Bateman in training camp.
Meanwhile, we got clips of Lamar and Flowers working out together in June. All signs point to the rookie, but there’s more to his ability than his availability.
How I’m playing it
Zay Flowers stands out as the target of the Baltimore trio.
I’ve leaned into WR-heavy builds to start my drafts. So, when I have to decide on any of the Baltimore WRs, they’d be my WR4 or WR5. It’s not to say there’s no opportunity cost associated with the pick, and I can wait on Flowers to produce in the back half of the season. Instead, let’s compare him to the RBs available at the same ADP.
Javonte Williams, Alvin Kamara, and Dalvin Cook (depending on landing spot) will likely see a price bump if more positive news surfaces before September. Regardless, we can project most on this list for weekly solid touch shares. So any WR drafted here has to provide similar output. And Flowers has the best path to meet that need.
Bateman’s success rate against man coverage and increased aDOT make him the odds-on favorite to be Baltimore’s starting X-receiver. While he might edge out the others in target share, his week-to-week fantasy value has some added volatility.
Flowers’s rookie profile highlighted stronger skills when aligned from the flanker position, with 32.8% of his routes coming from the slot. Injuries aside, the potential for Flowers to see off coverage and work more through zone defenses gives him a leg up on his teammates and a greater chance to outkick his ADP in 2023.
