The NFL Draft is wrapped and Underdog Fantasy has launched the first wave of massive best ball contests for the 2024 season.
Needless to say, it's go time.
We'll be drafting and strategizing all summer long, but we'll need to move quickly if we want to take advantage of the unique opportunities available to us in the first week after the contests drop.
Because the NFL Draft shakes up the draft board (I'd estimate 50+ players either gained or lost meaningful value in fantasy), the ADP (average draft position) landscape is extremely inefficient. To put more simply, the way these players are ordered by default in the Underdog app is completely borked right now.
Unless a user is uploading updated ranks, they will be drafting off these stale ranks/ADPs which don't yet properly affect the true value of many of these players (specifically rookies). As more and more drafts are completed, the ADP will become increasingly efficient, but attacking these mispriced players is the biggest edge we have in early Best Ball Mania V drafts.
Below, I'll provide a cheat sheet of my five favorite players to target right now in drafts before they get too expensive. In a recent video, I covered 22 players I expect to rise in the coming weeks, but for this piece I am zeroing in on the players I have the most conviction on.
There's a case to be made for targeting any player who will rise in ADP regardless of whether you love them, because it allows you to get them at the cheapest price they'll be all summer.
If you don't like Ladd McConkey in the 10th round, you're really not going to like him when he's going in the 7th round. Plugging your nose and taking guys you know will rise allows you to get exposure at more palatable prices than the majority of BBM drafters who will miss out on these prices.
Xavier Worthy, WR - Chiefs
- Target In Round 6
It's rare that everything comes together as perfectly as it did for my read on Xavier Worthy. He was one of my most drafted players in pre-NFL Draft contests and a guy I went on record predicting would go earlier than consensus mock draft rankings would indicate.
The fact that he also went to my dream landing spot for him was the cherry on top.
Worthy is now (rightfully) screaming up draft boards. He opened up the contest with an ADP of 94 (Round 8) and is up to 70 (late Round 6).
Jan 1, 2024; New Orleans, LA, USA; Texas Longhorns wide receiver Xavier Worthy (1) celebrates a play in the fourth quarter against the Washington Huskies in the 2024 Sugar Bowl college football playoff semifinal game at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Sara Diggins/American-Statesman-USA TODAY Sports
Not only does Worthy add a terrifying dimension to the Chiefs' offense, but there's room for a massive role out of the gate if Rashee Rice receives a significant suspension.
Worthy is going to continue to rise regardless, but he could rocket up into the early parts of Round 5 if the suspension rumors surrounding Rice materialize.
My recommendation: Target Worthy aggressively in Round 6 over the coming days; he's going to be a Round 5 pick in short order.
Keon Coleman, WR - Bills
- Target In Round 9
Keon Coleman was one of the draft's biggest winners after landing in Buffalo—a spot ripe for early opportunity. He's already won over the NFL at large thanks to his seemingly non-stop comedic antics and he's polling just as favorably in draft rooms.
After opening the contests with a Round 12 ADP, Coleman has already moved up into Round 9.
Considering the opportunity and his budding cult hero status, I don't think his rise is slowing down anytime soon.
I have my concerns about Coleman as a prospect, but his draft capital alone vaulted him up to WR6 in Dwain's Rookie WR model. Coleman is the exact archetype of pick that I described in the intro. I know I am not going to want to click him in Round 7 or Round 8 (where he's headed), so I need to get my shares now, otherwise I'll end up with zero (which doesn't feel great either).
My recommendation: Target while he's still in Round 9, but don't chase too far up boards unless stacking him with Josh Allen.
Jayden Daniels, QB - Commanders
- Target In Rounds 10 & 11
Of all the players I'm featuring here, Jayden Daniels is actually the one moving up the slowest. After opening the contest with an ADP of 127 (Round 11), he's only moved up 6 picks.
This surprises me. Daniels has the profile to break fantasy in the same way that previous dual-threat QBs like Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts have hacked fantasy scoring in their favor. At one point last summer, drafters were selecting Anthony Richardson in Round 7 solely because of his rushing prowess.
But for whatever reason, similar steam has not found its way to Daniels. Maybe it's a slower burn than I would have initially assumed, but I have a really hard time believing that Daniels won't close the summer as a Round 7 or 8 pick. Is he really that different of a bet than Kyler Murray who goes at the 7-8 turn?
My recommendation: Target Daniels aggressively for as long as he remains in the double-digit rounds.
Ray Davis, RB - Bills
- Target In Rounds 14 & 15
Another Bills rookie finds his way onto our list of priority targets. Ray Davis, like Coleman, landed in an ideal location. Drafters responded accordingly and have already pushed Davis up from Round 17 into Round 15.
I fully expect James Cook to still be the lead back in Buffalo, but there are so many ways Davis can smash his current ADP. At the very least, he offers massive contingent upside if Cook were to get injured. It's also not inconceivable that he could carve out a standalone role.
Dec 29, 2023; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Kentucky Wildcats running back Ray Davis (1) runs into the end zone for a touchdownagainst the Clemson tigers in the fourth quarter during the Gator Bowl at EverBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
The Bills basically refused to use Cook at the goalline last year, often relegating him to work between the 20s. If Davis is able to wrestle away any of that short yardage work in the redzone, he could contribute immediately to our teams.
My recommendation: Davis is pretty obviously going to be a Round 13 (or higher) pick in the coming months, so I want to pack my bags now while he's still chilling out in the late rounds.
Ben Sinnott, TE - Commanders
- Target In Rounds 15 & 16
Two Bills rookies on this list, and now two Commanders rookies. Washington selected Ben Sinnott with the 53rd overall pick in the second round of the NFL Draft, which immediately positioned him as the clear TE2 in this class.
There is a ton of opportunity up for grabs in Washington with Curtis Samuel and Logan Thomas out of the picture as well. As much as we like Terry McLaurin, there are no alpha target earners in this offense. Sinnott has a clear runway to be a poor man's version of what Sam LaPorta did as a rookie.
I say "poor man's" because I think a realistic outcome is Sinnott serving as the Cole Kmet to Daniels' Justin Fields. That's to say, the production could be sporadic, but there will be explosive plays and redzone looks available in this new-look offense.
My recommendation: Sinnott didn't even have an ADP/rank when the contest opened, and is now going in Round 16. He will move up a few rounds from here in the coming months, so continue to select him in this range (and even earlier if you are stacking up Daniels).
For the full list of risers I recommend targeting before they get too expensive, check out this video.
