Fantasy Football Draft Strategy. Draft Ranges to Target.
Fantasy football is different every year with new ADPs, new strategies, and new relevant players. There's a non-stop learning process in a sport with more innate randomness than just about anything else out there.
As the late great Norm Macdonald once said, “You should never bet football 'cause the ball ain't round.”
Of course, there are certain strategies we can deploy to be +EV in the long run despite the odds still generally being stacked against us. One way is by gaining experience in drafting with optimal roster construction.
Over the last two months, I have completed over 100 drafts on Underdog Fantasy. Putting aside the need for me to go outside and touch more grass, I’ve certainly had plenty of chances to go through good and bad drafts alike, leading to newfound clarity surrounding the specific positional ranges of the draft that I prefer to attack the most.
Drafting so many best ball teams makes it irresponsible to be overly exposed to one specific player, and Fantasy Life’s FREE Best Ball Hub can help you avoid that! It’s not wise for anyone to deploy the same exact draft strategy every time, especially considering how different pockets of value inevitably emerge in different draft rooms.
That said, I have loved the myriad of options available in the following ADP ranges of early summer drafts on Underdog. Asking yourself “What can I get in this round that I can’t get later?” is a good way to maximize value throughout the draft.
Here are the areas of drafts that I continuously find myself attempting to exploit.
Round 2-3 RB
Notable options
- Nick Chubb (ADP of pick No. 16.8 overall)
- Jonathan Taylor (17.0)
- Saquon Barkley (18.2)
- Tony Pollard (21.8)
- Derrick Henry (24.4)
- Rhamondre Stevenson (26.6)
- Josh Jacobs (28.0)
- Breece Hall (30.6)
The WR avalanche over at Underdog Fantasy is a real phenomenon and something that could carry over into more traditional redraft formats come August. In 2023, there is essentially a full round of value at RB relative to where the position was going off the board in past years.
Historically, stud workhorse RBs would be pretty much gone by the end of the first round, but now, some of the position’s best overall talents who also carry fantasy-friendly every-down roles are readily available in the middle of Round 2 and even into the early stages of Round 3.
There’s nothing wrong with drafting upside young WRs like Chris Olave and DeVonta Smith or dual-threat alien QBs like Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen. That said, it's hard to ignore the value of high-upside RBs in this range who are #good at football, play in good offenses, and have fantasy-friendly workloads compared to where they were being drafted in prior years.
Round 4 WR
Notable options:
- Keenan Allen (ADP of pick No. 36.3 overall)
- Christian Watson (40.2)
- Jerry Jeudy (40.6)
- DeAndre Hopkins (43.1)
- Drake London (43.6)
- Terry McLaurin (44.6)
- Mike Williams (46.1)
- D.J. Moore (47.0)
The aforementioned WR avalanche is no joke and can’t be ignored, meaning that this next tier of WRs in Round 4 are the last group to profile as alpha No. 1 types who have the talent to produce even in less-than-ideal offensive environments.
While none of these picks are exactly slam dunks, it could be argued that they are still members of one big tier of WR2 talents that starts around overqualified No. 2 WRs like Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, and Tee Higgins in Round 2.
Of course, WRs like Waddle and Smith rarely drop past Round 2, as their slightly lower target ceilings are more than made up for by their own personal talent and great offensive situations.
Dec 11, 2022; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen (13) catches the ball in the second half against the Miami Dolphins at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
However, these fourth-round WRs carry close to comparable upside at a two-round discount, as guys like Allen, Watson, Jeudy, and Moore are expected to work as the No. 1 option in their respective passing attacks.
It’s not necessarily wrong to look at Jahmyr Gibbs or Joe Burrow in Round 4 instead depending on how your first few rounds played out, but I vastly prefer these WRs to guys like Najee Harris and Travis Etienne, who I see as more expensive versions of RBs like James Conner/Cam Akers and Kenneth Walker, respectively.
Round 6 WR
Notable options:
- Michael Pittman (ADP of pick No. 62 overall)
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (63.0)
- Diontae Johnson (63.7)
- Tyler Lockett (64.2)
- Mike Evans (68.3)
- Treylon Burks (68.5)
- Jordan Addison (71.7)
Round 6 WRs like Pittman, Johnson, and Burks are the last few WRs with the potential to be true bonafide No. 1 receivers for their respective teams.
If you think the WR pickings are slim in this range, then whoa buddy…don’t look at the next tier of WRs like Elijah Moore, Rashod Bateman, and Michael Thomas. The WRs going after Round 6 still offer some solid upside, but there are some pretty bright red flags there for all of them.
Obviously the Round 6 WRs aren’t sure things, but who is in this area of the draft? Hopeful bell-cow RBs like Alexander Mattison and Miles Sanders are more expensive versions of Cam Akers and James Conner, and I’d rather wait just a bit longer for my top picks at QB and TE if not fulfilling stack obligations.
Round 7-8 Turn QB and TE
Notable options
- Darren Waller (ADP of pick No. 81.2 overall)
- Deshaun Watson (83.2)
This is less of a group and more specifically shout outs to Waller and Watson, both of whom represent arbitrage versions of their far more expensive counterparts going in the top-five rounds.
Waller and Watson are the most-drafted TE and QB, respectively, of Fantasy Life’s Dwain McFarland so far this offseason. While I haven’t gotten quite as much exposure to those two as Dwain (though I'm working on it), I couldn't agree more with his reasoning for both players being rock-solid values at cost.
Here is what Dwain had to say about Waller in his excellent breakdown on optimizing TE roster construction:
“Waller registered his second-lowest targets per route run (TPRR) of his career at 17% last year. However, he battled a hamstring injury that kept him off the field for eight games, and in the three seasons prior to 2022, Waller boasted strong TPRR of 23%, 27%, and 24%, respectively.
Could he be washed at the age of 31? Of course that's possible, but TEs have historically produced fantasy stars at advanced ages at a far higher rate than RBs or WRs. And given the Giants’ lack of proven target-earners at WR, I will bet on Waller bouncing back from an injury-depleted season, especially at his cheap Round 7 ADP.
Waller is currently my most-rostered TE through 115 Underdog drafts at 20% exposure. He has a good chance of outscoring the WRs going in that ADP range while providing a big positional advantage. After Waller, there is a significant tier break at the TE position.”
Dec 17, 2022; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson (4) throws the ball against the Baltimore Ravens during the second quarter at FirstEnergy Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Galvin-USA TODAY Sports
And here are Dwain's thoughts on Watson from his piece on optimizing QB roster construction:
“Watson is my most drafted QB for three reasons.
- His fantasy production has been good every year except in 2022
- He is underpriced with a Round 7 ADP
- There are plenty of stacking options
Watson is at the top of the list if you are looking for an option after Round 6 with the best chance to make the elite-QB drafters pay.
The Browns made adding weapons for Watson their No. 1 offseason priority despite having limited assets (due to the trade for Watson). They secured Elijah Moore via trade and used their first pick in the draft (Round 3) on Cedric Tillman. The rumor is the Browns are looking to open things up on offense, and their offseason moves back that notion up.”
Round 9 RB
Notable options:
- James Cook (ADP of pick No. 96.2 overall)
- Alvin Kamara (101.0)
- Zach Charbonnet (101.3)
- A.J. Dillon (102.4)
- Antonio Gibson (102.7)
- Samaje Perine (105.1)
The plethora of RB options here sure comes in handy for drafters who have already stocked their WR room with five or so players.
While there are also reasonable TE options available like David Njoku and Pat Freiermuth, these low-end TE1 options historically don’t offer the same sort of league-smashing upside as the top-tier TEs and are far more likely to be replaced by a later-round dart.
A similar sentiment is true at QB, although I’m fine with taking a chance on Anthony Richardson if you failed to get any of the potential difference-makers at the position going in earlier rounds.
Still, this range of RBs offers real value. All six of the Round 9 RBs listed above are what I like to call “flex with benefits” types capable of providing solid weekly standalone flex production with league-winning upside if their teams' respective starters were to miss time.
Kamara is a bit more unique because he’d be going far higher without a potential suspension looming over his head. Then again, the possible suspension almost makes him more intriguing considering the lack of RBs going this late who we know will get top-15 usage. Kamara has league-winning upside for midseason and the fantasy playoff weeks even if he were to miss the first four to six games due to suspension.
You can take a shot on these Round 9 upside RBs on Underdog Fantasy and double your first deposit of up to $100 when you sign up below!
Round 12 RB
Notable options:
- Jaylen Warren (ADP of pick No. 135.2 overall)
- Kendre Miller (138.9)
- Tank Bigsby (140.4)
This range of drafts is basically the last to get potential high-upside handcuffs and/or flex options who have the potential to steal some fantasy-friendly work away from their respective team’s starter.
The case for Warren comes down to the reality that he was better than Najee Harris at…pretty much everything last year while facing eight-plus defenders in the box on the same percentage of his carries as Harris! Even assuming that Harris will remain the undisputed lead back, Warren has sky-high handcuff potential in one of the league’s few offenses still willing to lean on one single workhorse RB.
As for Miller, his ADP is still benefiting from the current uncertainty surrounding Kamara’s aforementioned looming suspension. The theoretical three-down rookie talent should carve out a decent-sized role anyway, and there might even be potential for Miller to run away with the job with a hot start according to ace Saints beat reporter Nick Underhill.
And finally, Bigsby has Day 2 draft capital and could carve out a pretty fantasy-friendly role even before considering his handcuff upside. The Jaguars' new rookie RB played well in college in the two areas where Travis Etienne struggled last season: receiving and goal-line ability.
In 2022, Etienne was the fourth-lowest graded RB in Pro Football Focus (PFF) score (49.8) out of 47 qualifying RBs with some bad drops on top of his five fumbles. Meanwhile, Bigsby has already received early camp praise for his work as a receiver and caught 62 passes during his three seasons at Auburn.
On top of that, Etienne was the NFL’s second-worst RB at converting carries inside the five-yard line into TDs among the league’s 25 most-used goal-line backs last season. Bigsby’s nickname is literally “Tank”, which is appropriate considering that he has the size to step into the goal-line role for Jacksonville at 6’0 and 210 lbs.
Check out the 7/3 edition of The Fantasy Life Podcast for additional thoughts on these RBs along with some other players Chris Allen and I can’t stop drafting this summer.
Round 14 WR
Notable options:
- D.J. Chark (ADP of pick No. 156.8 overall)
- Jayden Reed (162.4)
- Marvin Mims (163.4)
- Donovan Peoples-Jones (163.9)
- Rashid Shaheed (165.5)
Things get absolutely disgusting at the WR position after this range as we get into part-time role players like Curtis Samuel, John Metchie, Khalil Shakir, and all the Giants WRs with murky roles.
Once again, don’t expect guys like Chark or Mims to be locks for high-end production, but that’s the case for anyone going outside of the top-150 overall picks. These Round 14 WRs at least are either Day 2 picks with great underlying talent and the potential to find their way into the starting lineup sooner rather than later like Reed or Mims or are WRs projected to start right away in potentially underrated passing attacks like Chark, Peoples-Jones, and Shaheed.
Shaheed in particular has been a favorite late-round dart throw of mine as of late. The rising second-year talent was actually more efficient than Chris Olave in terms of yards per route run (2.59 vs. 2.42) on a small sample while looking the part of a legit playmaker capable of beating the defense both on designed touches and via shot plays downfield.
Round 17 and 18 TE
Notable options:
- Hayden Hurst (ADP of pick No. 197.5 overall)
- Luke Musgrave (198.9)
- Trey McBride (202.2)
- Isaiah Likely (205.6)
- Jake Ferguson (206.7)
- Michael Mayer (209.0)
- Noah Fant (211.3)
- Jelani Woods (211.8)
- Hunter Henry (212.8)
- Logan Thomas (214.7)
- Cade Otton (214.9)
These guys are pretty much all legit starting TEs for their respective teams. While not all of these TEs are guaranteed to have true full-time roles, there are a few that probably will like Henry, Thomas, and Otton.
These late-round TEs also include some upside youngsters like Musgrave, McBride, Likely, Woods, and Mayer as well as veterans who at least profile to be the lead option in a good passing game like Ferguson, Fant, and maybe Hurst.
No other position boasts this sort of depth at literally the very end of drafts. I’m not saying that you have to take two TEs at the end of every draft, but at a minimum, it’s great knowing how many viable options are available this late. This holds true both for rosters that already drafted an early-round TE and need a second TE late for the bye week as well as rosters that waited on TE and need a couple of final picks to hopefully find Mr. Right.
While I do love going after Gerald Everett and Tyler Higbee a bit earlier than the final two rounds of drafts, all these late-round TE options provide relief against reaching on similar archetypes like Dalton Schultz, Cole Kmet, and Irv Smith among others going multiple rounds earlier.
You can mix and match some of these players from Ian's favorite draft pick ranges on Underdog Fantasy and double your first deposit of up to $100 when you sign up below!
